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November 10th-14th: How did the global coffee market perform?

The week spanning from Monday November 10th to Friday November 14th saw the usual fluctuations, excitement and uncertainty that we at DRWakefield have grown to expect from the global coffee market during our 40 years of trading.

Here, we're going to break down our latest market report to examine the week's goings-on in a little more detail, looking at the value of different currencies around the world, as well as how many beans various countries exported.

Currency values

Japan hasn't featured in one of our reports for a little while, but the country's current financial situation – which has seen its economy sink into a state of recession during the third quarter of 2014 – has prompted renewed speculation that an election could be imminent.

In light of this, the conversion rate between the US dollar and the Japanese Yen reached a seven-year high last week, climbing to JPY 116.38.

Elsewhere on the market, the value of the pound sterling in comparison the the US dollar dropped during the five-day trading period, falling to a low of $1.5692.

This decrease is being attributed to the findings of the latest Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors report, which saw the overall value of the pound dropping to its lowest point for 14 months.

Arabica versus Robusta

We at DRWakefield also like to keep an eye on the market performance of the Arabica and Robusta varieties of coffee, with it being a fairly quiet and uneventful week for the former between the 10th and 14th. Between Monday and Friday, Arabica's value only fluctuated by 11 cents.

With regard to Robusta, it was also a somewhat slow week in terms of market value, but figures from Vietnam – the world's largest producer of this variety – show around 95,800 tonnes, or 1.60 million 60 kg bags, of the coffee were exported from the country during October. This indicated a decrease of 1.6 per cent when compared to the previous month.

However, India had a successful week regarding Robusta exports too, auctioning off some 140,892 kg of the variety, with around 43,000 kg being purchased by traders.

The Indian auction also had 97,104 kg of Arabica coffee on offer.

Global coffee performance

As usual, all eyes were on Brazil, the world's biggest coffee-producing country, during the five-day trading period, with an optimistic stance emerging following the severe drought issues it has experienced this year so far.

Speaking at Thursday 13th's Sintercafe conference in San Jose, John Wolthers of Comexim predicted that Brazil will produce between 44 and 47 million 60 kg bags of coffee next year, with Arabica beans accounting for 28 to 31 million of these. 

Mr Wolthers' forecast is slightly below that of the official estimate released back in September, which anticipated that 48.8 million bags would be cultivated during the coming season.

In the East African bean basket, both Tanzania and Kenya saw the price of their coffee fall slightly, with this being partly attributed to slow demand from the London and New York markets in the former.

Kenya's AA grade coffee dropped in value by one per cent at the week's auction, according to data from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange.

Elsewhere in the coffee-producing world, export figures for the first month of Vietnam's 2014-15 crop year were released during the week, with the 95,800 tonnes shipped abroad falling slightly short of traders' initial expectations of 100,000 tonnes. However, the official estimate from the country's government came in at 105,000 tonnes, meaning the actual yield was significantly below the forecast.

As harvest season continues for many of the world's biggest coffee-growing countries over the coming weeks and months, we at DRWakefield will of course be keeping track of happenings, so make sure you're keeping up to date with our market reports here.