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Mid-November coffee market volumes

Our latest coffee market report from our traders here at DRWakefield shows significant activity from around the world during the week spanning from Monday November 17th to Friday November 21st.

Here, we're going to break this information down a little, looking at exactly how many bags of beans each country has been producing, as well as at the state of the market and how this may have affected export volumes.

Let's begin with South America. As the world's biggest coffee-growing nation in terms of volume, all eyes are usually on trading activity in Brazil.

However, this year, there have been concerns about the country's volumes, with severe droughts throughout the summer months hampering coffee-growing conditions and subsequently the nation's crops. Rain did arrive earlier than usual in Brazil this year though, with the first drops coming down between September and October.

While no official figures relating to the country's coffee exports have been released yet, the trading world continues to keep a close eye on its activity to see the full extent of the weather damage and whether or not it will hamper the previous predictions for this year's shipments.

Elsewhere in South America, the Colombian coffee market has also been affected by unpredictable weather conditions. Droughts hit the nation during the summer, leading to worries that volumes would be significantly lower than usual this year.

Yet the latest predictions to emerge show that Colombia is expected to export 11.3 million bags of coffee during the 2014-15 season, indicating an increase from May's original forecast of 11 million bags.

The most recent figures to come in from Nicaragua show that October 2014 was an extremely successful month for the nation, with its shipments increasing by almost 150 per cent when compared to the same month of 2013.

This means 98,796 60 kg bags were shipped overseas to traders like ourselves at DRWakefield during the month, according to figures from Cetrex – the national export centre in Nicaragua – which were released on Friday 21st. However, it is not 100 per cent clear yet whether or not this figure includes beans leftover from the previous harvest season, which can sometimes be the case.

Our latest report also looks at coffee activity in Mexico and Indonesia. The former has seen its coffee premiums fall significantly in recent weeks, reaching the lowest point they've been at for ten months. This is being attributed to older crops being cleared out of warehouses, in preparation for the new season's harvest being brought in. One importer commented: "They're trying to get rid of what they have to make room for their new crop."

Mexico also saw the aftermath of issues with a contract relating to its high-grown Arabica coffee during the five-day trading period, as the premiums for this variety fell to 13.5 cents per lb from the 19.5 cents per lb recorded just one week earlier.

Finally, in Indonesia, the director-general for national export development Nus Nuzulia stated: "As the world's third biggest coffee producer after Brazil and Vietnam, Indonesia must boost its exports.

"We hope Indonesia's coffee exports will increase by about 9.5 to 10.5 per cent."

Predictions from the country's Ministry of Trade indicate that Indonesia's could export 9.5 per cent more beans this season than it did last year, when it made $1.17 billion from its coffee.

Photo credit: Thinkstock/karandaev