In last year’s decaf review we talked about growth and shifting patterns in decaf consumption. Coffee had moved beyond simply being functional, with caffeine or not, to being a choice. The emphasis became ‘how much’ caffeine, enabling the consumer to make a more nuanced choice over their caffeine levels. Gen Z and Millennials are prioritising the importance of sleep through a balanced consumption rather than the previous generations’ more blunt assessment that caffeine was ‘bad’.
Decaf these days is a conscious choice, not a compromise.
This is reinforced by the continued growth of all-day consumption, with one mainstream brand reporting that 26% of Brits have increased their decaf consumption. This is driven primarily by the younger generations and men, they found, who are more likely to choose flavoured and indulgent options. It is echoed in research carried out for Swiss Water Decaf a couple of years ago, who found 75% of drinkers surveyed were under 34 yrs old and had started consuming decaf within the last 2 years.
A review of the latest stats and figures confirms the previous assumptions that growth would continue. But perhaps something else is at play here too. It cannot have escaped most roasters notice that the Sugarcane Process grew from nothing to being a standard option. The rebrand from Ethyl Acetate certainly helped, but is it too much to suggest that the flavouring effect the chemical has is also part of the success?
Gen Z have not only been changing consumption habits when it comes to caffeine. They are big on flavour, aching to be ethical, and, like the social media content they are naturalised consuming, convenience is king. Can this fit with decaf coffee? Absolutely.
For those who attended our Full Circle event last year, you would have seen the fantastic talk on trends by Charles Banks, Founder of The Food People. In it, he broke down many of the macro trends and exactly how they are playing out for coffee right now, in both the UK and further abroad. For those of us that are not young (anymore) this may ring a bell.
Let me take you back to America, in the early 1980’s (1982, to be precise), to explain. Coffee consumption was struggling, with climate change having exacerbated rising prices so much so that a government investigation had followed. Consumption had all but plateaued in the 1950’s (albeit at a high percentage) and from then on generally declined each decade. This would bottom out in 1988 to 1.67 cups per day, down from 3.12, and was skewed towards an older drinking set.
Step in the Green Coffee Association of New York and the president of an advertising firm, Kenneth Roman Jr. In a quoted interview with the magazine World Coffee & Tea in 1981, he makes a few analogous comments that would seem to reinforce the circularity of coffee.
“Coffee is a wonderful product. I believe, however, that we have got to stop selling the product on price. We must sell coffee on quality, value and image.”
A look back at the introduction of the CVA would suggest we have recognised our own version of that in speciality, perhaps switching the word ‘price’ for ‘score’ or not, depending how you want to slice things. He continues, later in the article
“We are entering the ‘me’ generation. The crucial questions ‘me’ oriented consumers will ask, of all types of products, are: What’s in it for me? Is the product ‘me’? Is it consistent with my lifestyle? Does it fill a need? Do I like how it tastes? What will it cost me? Is it necessary? Can I afford it? Is it convenient to prepare? How will it affect my health?”
The ‘Me’ Generation, for those not involved in early 1980’s discussions of this nature, are what we refer to now as Baby Boomers. However, those questions look mighty familiar to what we are faced with today, and in a somewhat too-good-to-be-true assimilation, we find that Millennials, part of the focus of the growing decaf consumption trend, are called Generation Me.
Anthropology aside (and there are some fascinating rabbit holes to fall down there), what does this mean for us today, in the speciality coffee Third Wave-and-more era? In a speech given to the Green Coffee Association of New York, Kenneth Roman broke down personas for those that were consuming coffee at the time.
Amongst them were ‘the Taylors’, a couple in their sixties and worried about caffeine, for whom better decaffeinated coffees should be developed. Another was ‘Joel’, a college student who does not drink coffee, and was seen as the challenge to overcome.
And here lies a possible solution. The talk went on to discuss product diversification in an industry that had grown on standardisation. Arguably, this can, and has, been said of speciality coffee, and has formed parts of discussion over what speciality is, now that 80+ coffee on the SCA scoring system can feel almost ubiquitous.
Drawing on the wider historical context of controllable variety identified in anthropologist and historian William Roseberry’s analysis of the 1980s speciality shift ‘The Rise of Yuppie Coffees and the Reimagination of Class in the United States’, it becomes clear that the same structural conditions now align strongly with the emerging trends outlined by The Food People’s framework.
The 25–26 analysis presented by Charles Banks identifies Finding Balance as the central cultural driver for the coming period, illustrating a shift toward more intentional consumption choices, where people are seeking equilibrium between health, convenience, cost and emotional wellbeing. Decaf already sits at the centre of this recalibration because it provides a straightforward mechanism for moderating caffeine without abandoning the ritual of coffee.
The trend take outs from the presentation offer a practical route for understanding how decaf can develop next. Snackification points to smaller, functional formats that suit late day or low stimulant occasions. Mood focused beverages align with the growing interest in cognitive support, calm and routine building. JOMO at home highlights the importance of quiet, domestic rituals, giving decaf a clear role in evening preparation. The flavour exploration within swicy or swalty, dessertification and texture play reflects a willingness among younger drinkers to engage with expressive formats, which fits well with the flexibility that controllable variety allows. Third culture expressions add another dimension by bringing in influences from plural culinary identities, especially in metropolitan markets.
Two areas of the framework are especially resonant with decaf. Personalised Health connects directly to sleep, metabolic rhythms and individualised routines, while Conscience Coffee underlines the expectation for transparent sourcing, regenerative practices and measurable environmental commitments. These forces together indicate that decaf is not just growing because caffeine management is fashionable. It is growing because it is structurally aligned with the cultural, emotional and functional directions that the market is now taking.
From this perspective, decaf becomes a platform rather than an alternative. It can support new occasions, new menu formats and new expressions of identity. It appeals both to those who want continuity without caffeine and to those who are experimenting with personalised and expressive formats.
By engaging directly with these trends, the industry has an opportunity to treat decaf not as a category that follows but as one that leads, shaping where consumption patterns go next.
