Climate change isn’t a future threat – it’s already reshaping how coffee is grown, processed, and traded. From erratic rainfall to extreme heat and hail, producers across origins are adapting to increasingly unpredictable conditions. And while the challenges are technical, the stories behind them are deeply human.
Here’s what we’ve been hearing and seeing on the ground on how climate change impacts coffee origins
Indonesia: Too Much Rain, Too Little Predictability
During a recent visit to Indonesia by Henry and Phil, we saw firsthand how increased rainfall is disrupting flowering cycles. Without a pronounced dry period to stress the trees, flowering becomes irregular, leading to uneven cherry development and lower per hectare yields, down by as much as 30% in some areas.
As Henry put it, “There used to be a clear and repeatable harvest for the main and fly crop, but it’s increasingly becoming random and hard to predict. There’s too much rain. Normally, it should be October to December and February to June. Last year, there was no rain during months where traditionally you would expect there to be.”
For exporters, this unpredictability complicates forward selling and increases the risk of default. It also makes container planning and global logistics more fragile.
Costa Rica: Rain, Risk, and a Shift in Processing
In Costa Rica, the story is similar—but with added intensity. Heavy rains are knocking flowers and pinheads (the name given to small cherries at the beginning of their formation) off trees, reducing yields and pushing producers toward washed coffees. Naturals and honeys, which require longer drying times and more stable weather, are becoming riskier to produce. With good prices paid too, there is further reduced incentive to add more value.
Labour is another pressure point. Seasonal pickers from Panama and Nicaragua often arrive based on traditional harvest timelines. With flowering now more spread out, some farms are struggling to align labour availability with peak ripeness.
Pinheads and green cherries forming
Brazil: Compressed Harvests and Climate Extremes
In Brazil, the climate story flips. Hotter summers are accelerating cherry maturation, compressing the harvest window to just two months in some regions. This rapid development is increasing the share of natural coffees, as seen at farms like Palmital, where pulped naturals have declined significantly.
But the heat isn’t the only concern. Frosts and hailstorms are becoming more frequent and more damaging. One producer in Nova Resende told us, “2021 saw hail four times. We lost the entire harvest and some trees.”
What Comes Next?
The pace of change could yet outstrip the pace of adaptation. Mechanisation may offer partial solutions, but it comes with cost and availability constraints. What’s clear is that flexibility, close relationships, and real-time decision-making are becoming essential.
For now, staying close to origin and listening carefully might be the most strategic move we can make.
