Futures Markets:
Arabica : The market continued its downward trend which could be a result of falling demand, news of the global economy slowing down does not help this matter. There are low volumes of exports for forward contracts as certain producers are holding onto stock and exporters will only buy if the price is right for them. The strong US dollar added pressure on the market to drop to its lowest level since June 28.
Robusta : Robusta prices followed the NY, changing direction after the previous week two month high. If the market is to react to this downward motion volume and open interest will need to increase.
Currency : The US dollar remains positive given a somewhat plateau feel to the market after a few head and shoulders. The US dollar against the £ looks to remain strong as there is news of job cuts if the UK output remains uncertain.
Futures and Currency close levels:
|
|
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
NY Sep-12 c/lb |
175.50 |
172.65 |
170.50 |
166.45 |
166.25 |
|
Lon Sep-12 $/t |
2228 |
2199 |
2179 |
2166 |
2167 |
|
£/$ |
1.5600 |
1.5578 |
1.5669 |
1.5615 |
1.5666 |
Physical Markets:
Brazil : Weather continues to improve, with forecasted colder weather for August. Steady internal prices as buyers and sellers are only trading when there is a good reason to buy.
Colombia : The flow of coffee seems low which is expected for this time of the year as the main crop is under a month away. Weather has remained good leaving no doubt as how the crop will be for the following season.
El Salvador: Coffee exports fell 32% during July compared with the same month last year.
Peru: Producers are withholding parchment in larger quantities because of the downward sloping ICE. Export figures show a 33% drop in June between 2011-12. Weather remains good with small showers aiding the ongoing harvest. Local currency strengthening to the dollar.
Tanzania : Adequate interest in both arabica and robusta, diffs are in line with the amount of available volumes and grades.
Uganda : Drugar (dry processed arabica) season running late due to heavy rains, screen 12 and 18 are being offered at steady levels
Ethiopia: Some exporters willing to accept lower offers to clear warehouses but prices for top grades remain strong.
India: News of the first drought in three years continues to damage the output. An estimate for the new crop of Arabica is expected to be slightly lower as a result of poor rains. Realisation that supplies are a lot tighter as demand remains high.
Indonesia: Shippers didn’t expect exports to be as strong resulting in delayed shipment – some of which is up to a month late.
Vietnam : August export forecasted to drop 110,000 tonnes to the previous month. Prices are remaining competitive as farmers are still selling while still retaining some stock for next season.
