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Weekly Market Report 4 to 8 February 2013

Futures Markets:

Arabica: The market continued to slide as technical selling maintained its recent dominance. NYC is back to 140-145 range with the lowest of the week below at 139.40. The strength in London is having little impact on NYC.

Robusta: London continued its roller coaster journey upwards, fund and speculative buying seems to be the driving forces once again with some option covering assisting the movement. How long the buying will continue for is unknown, so we wait in anticipation to see what will happen next.

Currency: UK Industrial and manufacturing production came in stronger than expected in December adding to hopes the UK which will avoid a technical triple-dip recession. Therefore, Sterling continued to register gains against euro and USD this week pushing back to 1.57. Euro continued to be under pressure slipping to a recent low on Friday.

Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY Mar-13 c/lb

147.95

144.05

142.10

140.30

141.06

Lon Mar-13 $/t

2049

2066

2069

2098

2123

£/$

1.5743

1.5641

1.5679

1.5735

1.5757

 

 

 

 

Physical Markets:

Brazil: 53.2 million bags if expected to be produced for the 2012/13 harvest. Private sector estimates are consistently higher than those of the government, which forecasts the coming crop to start in late May/June and expected volumes between 47 -50.2 million bags.

Colombia: Coffee production increased 64% in January versus the same month last year according to President Juan Manuel Santos.

Mexico: The country is launching a preventative campaign against the spread of roya, or coffee leaf rust in four southern states said the country‘s top plant safety official. 8,000 hectares of coffee plantations have been infected with roya and that prevention efforts could extend beyond 2013 said the country agriculture ministry.

Guatemala: The country declared a national emergency to fight a severe outbreak of roya or leaf rust which has hammered coffee crops in the region, the country’ agriculture minister said. Hurting from a recent drop in coffee prices in the previous year, many of them cannot afford the chemicals to fight  the disease which cost up to $70 per litre.

Ethiopia: ECX has signed an agreement with the US Government. The agreement is intended to allow collaboration towards enhancing the quality, marketing and traceability of Ethiopian coffee.

Kenya: The top price of the benchmark grade AA fell by $12 a bag the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said.

Tanzania: Prices fell at auction last week, taking their cue from the NYC – reducing the purchasing volumes.

AOB: The ICO has raised it world 2012/13 coffee output forecast to 144.5 million bags, its monthly report published.