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Weekly Market Report 25th February to 1st March 2013

 

Futures Markets:

 

Arabica: Traders are seemly becoming friendlier to the market as we have stayed relatively stable all week. Funds short net position was reduced by more than expectations.

Robusta: As we draw closer to the new season in Indonesia the market begins to pick up its focus. There has been a noticeable increase in exports since October as longs take advantage of higher market prices.

Currency: The US$  was well supported as investors interpreted the Fed minutes to mean that quantitative easing may be withdrawn earlier than expected if the US recovery continues.  The Euro traded to a six week low against the Dollar and Sterling, after the ECB reported that regional banks were set to pay back much lower amounts of the cheap funding received during the Eurozone Crises than had been expected.

 

Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY May-13 c/lb

143.10

143.50

143.45

143.20

142.90

Lon May-13 $/t

2079

2086

2098

2108

2115

£/$

1.5146

1.5165

1.5109

1.5183

1.5056

 

 

Physical Markets:

 

Brazil: Growers are forecasted to harvest a record crop for the season in which trees enter the lower-yielding half of the cycle. New crop diffs slowly getting more attractive but business as of yet remains quite stagnant.

Colombia: Producers will stage a peaceful march in Bogota demanding help from the government as a strong Peso and lower coffee prices reduce income, Luis Genaro Munoz, the head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers mentioned this week.

Peru: Coffee production could be lower than expected this year due to a plan-eating fungus that has affected about one-third of the country’s crops and industry group mentioned this week.

Nicaragua: Exports fell 7.2% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, down to 100,506 bags, the country’s export association, Cetrex stated.

Indonesia: Exports are set to decline to a two-year low as increasing domestic consumption erodes supplies from a record harvest.

India: Activity in washed plantation coffees improved a little as offered diffs came closer to tenderable parity.

Ethiopia: The ECX seems to be in a world of its own, with prices dropping on the NYC internal prices remain firm – this could be due to the rumours of a shorter supplier of washed coffees this season.

Kenya: Internal prices continue to rise for the reasons that were explained by one of our exporters – “the tap for better qualities is running dry and therefore a rush by everyone to quench thirsts”. This week was the last auction before the election break, offering 24,500 bags with 20% being sustainable certified.

Tanzania: Larger quantities of Northern coffees were offered in the auction this week, similar to previous weeks. Generally the North is offered before South, but at this time of the year to have such limited quantities being offered leaves exporters feeling a little disappointed. Dar Es Salam congestion remains problematic –on Tuesday 14 vessels could be observed in outer-anchorage, aerating birthing allocations.