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Weekly Market Report 23 to 27 April 2012

Futures Markets:

Arabica :  A mixed market during the week, starting with a rally on Tuesday due to equities and commodities attracting funds away from selected safer haven due to eurozone neurosis. Then, the market dropped due to a large volume of origin selling trying to get the high levels. It closed the week to around same levels after the large volume of selling on Wednesday.

Robusta :  London market continued to slide following the downside trend. Industry showed some interests as origin are unlikely to chase the market lower at this stage having sold around recent high. On the charts, a support should be seen down to 1990 area.

Currency :  US$ remains on the defensive following Friday’s weaker than expected US GDP figures . Despite the ongoing concerns about Spain, euro continued to benefit with a weaker US$. In contrast, sterling has shaken off the euro and us$ due to their respective concerns.

 

Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY  Jul-12 c/lb

178.95

183.50

176.75

175.85

176.50

Lon May-12 $/t

2025

2025

2000

2011

1996

£/$

1.6138

1.6150

1.6182

1.6183

1.6285

 

Physical Markets:

 

Brazil : Volume of negotiation from producers was small, as they thought market could go up to 185-190 c/lb. Exporters try their best to put new sales on the book and keep business going on but demand seems quiet. Better quality is expected for new crop shipments. In April 2012, Exports are 1,360,224 bags according to Cecafe.

Colombia :  Rains have decreased but pickings do not improved,  so very small coffee flow which will cause the smallest mitaca for the past years. As Producers have very small volume, they don’t sell the coffee too much forward. They also adopt a strategy against the market to get the best price they can by selling at the right time. In April 2012, exports are reduced by 130,000 bags to 315,953 bags.

Guatemala: The first part of the week has been quite dynamic in business as higher Ice levels have been seen.

Honduras: Ihcafe estimates a crop of about 5.4 million bags (46kg), which is actually around 6 million bags.

Kenya : Around 21,000 bags on offer in sale 21. There were softer pricing for Average coffee FAQ AA and AA. Next auction will be held on 2nd of May with about 19,500 bags on sale.

Tanzania : Still waiting for an auction to be announced

Uganda : Robusta New season started to be offered at firm diff for prompt shipment. There were a lot of rains causing delay to move parchments to the shipper; this is why differential staying firm.

Ethiopia: Active week with good volume of traded of sundried and washed coffees. Exporters could not obtain information from the National Bank to know what quantity is left for June/July shipment as May Shipment seems to be difficult to get enough container.

India: Exporters were active during the week on Arabica Plantation and Arabica Cherry trade while Robusta Cherry received strong support from domestic traders at the last auction, said Reuters. Estimates of around 30% to 35% of Robusta are left in the hand of the growers.

Vietnam : Huge export volume to continue in Vietnam in April. March 20012 as biggest export month with more than 3 million bags which will be followed by 150,000 tons in April 2012. Farmers are selling in a higher Liffe Market so which volume will be shipped in the next half year if there are only 340,000 tons. Some reports expect a new crop up by 8% whereas others estimate a lower crop by5%.