Futures Markets:
Arabica : ICE was initially on a bullish direction but it finished the week with a correction, helped by the $USD rally and spec liquidation in NY to see origin and funds selling.
Robusta : The market was moving on a bearish tone during the week. However, prices avoided a big drop due to lack of selling as much as any supportive buying.
Currency : US$ recorded gains against Sterling following the poor PMI (purchasing Managers index) in Europe. Also Euro came under pressure due to a ECB rate cut and downbeat comments on the growth outlook from the ECB president.
Futures and Currency close levels:
|
|
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
NY Sep-12 c/lb |
174.60 |
180.45 |
closed |
180.35 |
176.45 |
|
Lon Sep-12 $/t |
2135 |
2136 |
2098 |
2099 |
2045 |
|
£/$ |
1.5698 |
1.5659 |
1.5582 |
1.5510 |
1.5472 |
Physical Markets:
Brazil : Activities mixed in recent days. Traders in Europe report that due to weather patterns, semi washed grades and gourmet coffees will be available in lower volume and quality. Exports in June fell to 1.69 million bags, especially due to farmers reluctant to sell as lower ICE in the last past month.
Colombia : Coffee flow is at a halt with steady weather conditions being favourable for the new crop.
Guatemala: Small business has been seen in current crop leftovers at about unchanged differentials.
Peru: Coffee flow slightly retentive as producer’s become more interesting as ICE rise. Overseas demand is steadily advancing. There is a delayed crop as there is a lower demand for initial shipments. Shipments in May-12 were 17% down compared to last year.
Kenya : Weather stable but cloudy, few showers seen in the western part of the Country. Last Auction took place on 3rd July with 19,679 bags on offer with steadily firm price and aligned with ICE market.
Tanzania : Quality seems to be good to average. Robusta is now flowing into the mills with a good demand from buyers. First overseas sales expected by Aug-12.
Uganda : Robusta started to be offered at a bit lower prices following Liffe trend. Uganda coffee exports fell over a year to 275,057 bags in Jun-12, this drop is explained by heavy rains leading to drying and on logistical issues.
Ethiopia : There is a small congestion in Djibouti port which causes delays for the shipment. On another hand, ECX is now able to offer traceable coffee.
India: Quiet week with very little action in the market as Liffe prices were unchanged and Arabica offered at an aggressive price as there is small volume. Monsoons rains are deficient by more than 35% (still lower than it should be).
Vietnam : Moderate Liffe keep farmer to stop selling, as there is still 4 month of this crop to go, they wait for better market levels.
Others: UC climatic protection Center is forecasting that an El Nino may strike as early the 3rd quarter of 2012. This would suggest El Nino conditions developing in July /Sep 2012. It would be clearly an issue for Coffee production in Central America, Vietnam, Indonesia and India.
Due to the “Olympic Games” (London 28 -12 August) deliveries may be affected as roads will be closed/ congested. Please allow an extra day or so to avoid disappointment.
