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Weekly Market Report 10 to 14 December 2012

 

Futures Markets:

 

Arabica: The market failed to muster any rally throughout the week and fell to new lows – origin only willing to sell on a spot basis, as they await a rebound to avoid any risk.

Robusta: Speculators have switched to a net long position which caused the market to make a slow but steady climb towards the 1900s throughout the week. The strength of the January position has prompted some high activity in rolling both March and May further down the board, as Vietnam is sitting on the bulk of its harvest, March and May do not look like they will follow suit of January.

Currency:  In the US, softening energy prices on Friday saw the cost of living fall more than forecasted. The reducing threat of inflation has allowed the Fed to announce expansion to its QE programme last week in an effort to reduce unemployment and aid growth.

 

Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY Mar-13 c/lb

147.00

149.50

146.50

143.60

143.15

Lon Jan-13 $/t

1874

            1884   

1890

1892

1908

£/$

1.6032

1.6086

1.6103

1.6122

1.6112

 

 

 

 

 

 

Physical Markets:

 

Brazil: A larger off-crop has changed the forecasted total crop estimate to 53.4 million bags an increase of 15%.

Colombia: Production is expected to increase 657,000 to 8.3 million bags. Exports are also expected to increase to 8.2 million bags in 2012/2013 season with the remaining crop expected to be used for internal consumption.  

Kenya: The 7th auction of the current season took place on Tuesday offering 18,000 bags. An overall difference in differentials has been observed, however this can be correlated with the recent fall of the NYC.

Tanzania: The 22nd auction was held on Thursday and price gaps between higher grades are noticeable narrower as demand still lags behind expectations.

Uganda: Robusta flows steadily into the mills as we move closer to the peak of the season -buying interest still remains limited, however spot positions are plentiful.

India: The arrival of new washed Arabica is still yet to gather momentum as growers are holding back due to the sliding market.

Guatemala: Physical export business continues to slow and the internal market is neither willing to follow since the decline of the differentials.

Honduras: Low amount of activity towards the end of the week with exporters still covering their existing commitments. Internal pricing remains higher than NYC with the flow of coffee steadily increasing.

Mexico: Exports rose by 41.5% in November to 241,942 bags according to Amecafe.

Vietnam: Farmers have gathered around 75% of this year’s crop which is equivalent to 1.1 million tonnes, 360,000 tonnes have already been sold.