October Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report 27/10/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 27th October to Friday 31st October and was written by Phil Searle.

Coffee Market 

We’ve now entered the final trading sessions ahead of First Notice Day on November 19, and significant rolling activity is anticipated. Managed money, global funds, and participants across the international coffee sector are expected to begin shifting their positions into the March-26 contract (KCH26) shortly. The price was once again in a somewhat large range, battling between 372-392.

Overall, the industry has become accustomed to 20-30c ranges within a day and taking a cautious approach. Buyers are defending the dips by buying into them when needed. The market remains bullish as there hasn’t been any news to reverse the narrative.

Origin

Volumes overall look steady for the upcoming harvests in Central America. After delays last year, harvest timing have normalised. Picking began in mid-Oct in the lowlands and should peak in Dec/Jan. Nicaragua’s crop is forecast near 2.3 million bags, with a reduction in Matagalpa offset by higher yields in the north. Pest pressure remains low, though agronomists warn that wetter conditions could trigger renewed leaf-rust activity in susceptible varieties.

The Ethiopian government has released the minimum prices for the start of the season. Prices are 20% higher than previous figures. Weather has been sunny in the last few months which has sped up the ripening and setting a smoother start to the season. Many exporters are holding back due to price uncertainty. Lack of containers in Addis, which hopefully sorts itself out before the new year.

The fly-crop in Kenya is tapering off, with weekly auction volumes declining from around 10,000 bags to closer to 7,000. Quality is also deteriorating, marked by a rise in Mbuni and lower-grade offerings. Container logistics remain a key bottleneck.

Ongoing availability challenges across shipping lines continue to disrupt near-term exports, despite a steady—albeit shrinking—flow anticipated through year-end

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The Dollar had a relatively measured week as markets positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. The DXY continued its recent rebound from October lows near 97.50, with the index trading within a relatively narrow range as traders awaited clarity on the Fed’s policy path.

The technical picture for the Dollar showed signs of improvement, though the index remained in what analysts described as a “neutral-to-recovery phase.” Support from month-end flows and lingering geopolitical tensions provided some underlying bid for the Greenback, though the broader trend since mid-year has been one of Dollar weakness as Fed easing expectations have built.

What’s particularly notable is how the Dollar has managed to stabilise despite dovish Fed expectations. Markets appear to have fully priced in the near-term easing path, with focus now shifting to whether the Fed will maintain its current trajectory or adjust based on incoming data. Recent US figures showing solid growth alongside cooling inflation have lent some support to the argument that rates could stay higher for longer than initially anticipated.

Sterling had a challenging week, weighed down by mounting concerns over the UK’s fiscal position ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget announcement. The Pound came under renewed pressure mid-week after the Office for Budget Responsibility warned of a £20 billion fiscal shortfall caused by weak productivity growth, reigniting speculation over possible tax rises and tighter fiscal conditions.

Coffee Market Report 27/10/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 20th October to Friday 24th October and was written by Jack Ravenscroft.

Coffee Market 

The coffee market endured another highly volatile week, with sharp early gains giving way to a swift correction by Friday. KCZ25 opened at 401.30 c/lb, rallied to a five-week high of 437.95 c/lb on 23 October (the highest level since February) before retreating to 400.05 c/lb at week close. Such dramatic swings have become routine, underscoring how accustomed the market has grown to elevated volatility.

From a fundamental standpoint, supply speculation and political risk were the dominant drivers. The early-week rally was supported by drought concerns in Brazil and tight certified stocks, which have now fallen below the 500,000-bag mark. This is a threshold breached only four times in history. However, forecasts for beneficial rainfall in Brazil and Vietnam moving forwards prompted profit-taking and cooled the bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, political uncertainty added to market tension. The United States announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on Nicaragua and potentially raise tariffs on Colombia, citing human rights violations and drug-trade concerns. Both countries are key Arabica suppliers to the U.S. Adding to the uncertainty, speculation surrounding the upcoming meeting between Presidents Lula and Trump over the weekend further stoked market anxiety.

Jordan Hooper’s article, ‘Is Perception the New Reality in Coffee Markets?’, is particularly relevant in this market. Depending on your vantage point, the high market can make perfect sense or seem wildly illogical. On the bullish side, spreads are inverted, certified stocks have fallen below 500,000 bags and Trump is causing chaos. Conversely, the strong USD typically applies downward market pressure. Moreover, weather models suggest a 2026 Brazil crop that could create the biggest that would create the largest surplus in over a decade. What side are you on?

Origin

Tensions between the U.S. and Colombia have escalated into a full diplomatic crisis. President Trump accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of being “an illegal drug leader strongly encouraging the massive production of drugs.” Petro responded by calling Trump “rude and ignorant” and recalled his ambassador for consultations. The U.S. also threatened to cut large-scale aid and subsidies, adding to the growing strain between the two nations.

The crisis intensified after the killing of a Colombian fisherman in territorial waters. Petro condemned the incident, stating, “US government officials committed murder and violated our sovereignty,” emphasising that the victim had no links to drug trafficking. This follows a series of disputes, including Petro’s visa revocation and tensions over U.S. military actions in the region.

Colombia, historically a close U.S. ally, is the second largest supplier of coffee to the United States, holding a 19% market share in 2024. Strong Colombian exports have partially offset a decline in Brazilian shipments, but proposed tariffs could disrupt U.S. import plans and place additional pressure on the coffee trade.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The U.S. dollar strengthened steadily through the week, supported by positive economic data, safe-haven demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. Consistent gains meant the dollar reached multi-week highs by Friday, reinforcing its role as a preferred currency for investors amid global market volatility.

Coffee Market Report 20/10/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 13th October to Friday 17th October and was written by Dave Rabbich.

Coffee Market 

We saw a very turbulent period in the Arabica market last week, something that is becoming all too recognisable. The December terminal opened Monday at 373.20 c/lb, which was also the weekly low. It reached a weekly high of 418.50 c/lb on Wednesday, and closed Friday at 397.45 c/lb. This marks a 45.30 c/lb difference from low to high.

This upward movement was caused by a stronger Brazilian Real and 14 day dry weather forecasts for Southeastern Brazil. Wednesday arrived and although initially we saw further rallying of the New York it came to close lower as the rains finally arrived in Brazil, easing the dry conditions that had supported prices for weeks. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported rainfall in Minas Gerais with more showers expected for the rest of the week, providing the market with a the narrative to justify long liquidation.

It wasn’t just weather driving the selloff. Losses accelerated after President Trump announced he would meet with Brazilian President Lula da Silva, fueling hopes for progress on a trade deal that could lead to an easing of tariffs on Brazil’s coffee exports. The market didn’t wait for details – the possibility of tariff relief was enough to trigger fresh selling.

Origin

The arrival of rain in Brazil’s coffee growing regions dominated origin news this week. Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica producing state, received its first significant precipitation in weeks, with forecasted showers through the remainder of October. While this is certainly welcome news for next year’s crop development, it’s worth noting that one week of rain doesn’t fundamentally alter the conditions the trees have endured over the past several months.

The Trump-Lula meeting announcement added another layer of complexity to the origin picture. With both sides expressing interest in resolving the tariff dispute, there’s now speculation that coffee could be exempted from the 50% tariff currently imposed on Brazilian imports. However, it’s important to distinguish between diplomatic signals and actual policy changes. Until there’s formal confirmation of tariff relief, American buyers continue to face the same challenges in securing Brazilian coffee.

Liberia is set to launch Coffee Liberica as its flagship product under the FAO’s One Country One Priority Product (OCOP) initiative, aiming to position the rare, indigenous coffee variety on the global stage alongside Arabica and Robusta. The initiative, tentatively set to launch during in December 2025, is expected to boost Liberia’s agribusiness sector by creating jobs, attracting investment, and increasing its presence in international coffee markets. This species is currently unheard of by many and remains untasted by even more. In the past DR Wakefield has had a few bags over the last few years but perhaps after this drive it will become a staple on our offer list.

COT & Certified Stocks

October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published. When the federal government operations return to normal, CFTC will resume publication of the Commitments of Traders in chronological order

Currency & Macro Outlook

The Dollar had a quiet week relative to recent volatility, with the DXY trading in a relatively narrow range as markets digested ongoing political developments. The US government shutdown concerns that had weighed on the Dollar in previous weeks continued to simmer in the background, though without the acute pressure seen earlier in the month. This had the effect of both the Pound and Euro strengthening over the week against the greenback. With the Fed in its communication blackout period ahead of the next meeting, currency markets lacked fresh catalyst from monetary policy developments.

Sterling and the Euro both traded quietly against the Dollar, with neither showing strong directional conviction. The focus in currency markets remained on broader central bank policy divergence rather than any specific economic data releases, which were light during the week. The week ended with GPB/USD at 1.34 and EUR/USD at 1.165.

Coffee Market Report 13/10/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 6th October to Friday 10th October and was written by Henry Clifford.

Coffee Market 

KCZ25 opened Monday at 384.90 c/lb, reached a weekly high of 390.35 c/lb, touched a low of 370.60 c/lb, and closed Friday at 373.05 c/lb: this represented a weekly decrease of 14.9 c/lb. Nearly 15 c/b over the course of a week does not seem that much of a move at the moment given some of the huge daily swings we have seen. I wonder what constitutes a “normal” daily or weekly range during these times?

On Monday, the market tested 390 c/lb but it could not sustain itself at this level and faded towards market close. The push higher lacked the conviction needed to break through, with rain forecasts for Brazil beginning to weigh on sentiment as the week progressed. Market up!

Wednesday saw a reversal as the market found some support at the key technical level of 375 c/lb. On Thursday however, the market closed down 8.25 c/lb as Arabica coffee fell sharply due to positive forecasts for rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions and this set the tone for Friday’s continued weakness; the selling pressure persisted, and another 3.75 c/lb was wiped off at the week’s close.

Market direction continues to remain guided by changes in certified stock levels and Brazil weather developments and this looks set to continue in the weeks ahead. The talk of town is how to address the December/March switch as it’s looking set to be an extremely painful FND next month if levels remain similar.

Origin

The market’s continued attention to rain forecasts suggests that participants are pricing in the potential for improved crop prospects, though it’s worth noting that forecasts are not the same as actual rainfall. Brazil’s coffee belt has been dealing with below-average precipitation for months, and a few days of forecast rain doesn’t fundamentally alter the challenging conditions the trees have endured.

Beyond weather, the structural challenges facing origins persist. The high commercial prices continue to influence producer behaviour, with traditional marketing channels experiencing pressure as farmers seek flexibility and faster payment terms. The longer the market remains at elevated levels, the more these behavioural shifts become entrenched. As mentioned 2 weeks ago, cooperatives are finding this particularly challenging.

COT & Certified Stocks

October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published. When the federal government operations return to normal, CFTC will resume publication of the Commitments of Traders in chronological order

Currency & Macro Outlook

The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 99.56 on Thursday, its strongest level since the 1st of August, adding headwinds across soft commodities. The move coincided with renewed risk-off sentiment linked to US government shutdown concerns, driving safe-haven inflows and broad dollar strength.

GBP/USD and EUR/USD started the week at 1.348 and 1.165 respectively. The Euro performed better than the Pound but both lost value against the Greenback to close out the week at 1.335 and 1.162.

Although The Pound lost more value than the Euro, it has held up reasonably well despite ongoing fiscal concerns, suggesting that the market has found a comfortable equilibrium for now. The lack of major economic data releases or central bank communications kept currency markets subdued.

Coffee Market Report 06/10/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 29th September to Friday 5th October and was written by Tom Haigh.

Coffee Market 

Similar to what we saw at the start of September, when dry forecasts in Brazil pushed the market above the 420 level, the main character of KCZ25’s story last week was also the weather. Although geopolitical factors (read: Trump) continue to contribute to volatility. The week opened on Monday 29th September, at 381.05 cts/lb and, despite early strength, appeared to buck the previous week’s bull run by closing lower at 372.20. Tuesday saw a modest rebound, closing at 374.85, just 1.65 cts higher than the open.

On Wednesday 1st October, however, the market began a sharp rally, reaching 384.75 before closing at 383.90. This was fuelled by concerns about a lack of follow-on rains in Brazil, which could affect the fruit-setting phase of flowering and impact the 2026/27 harvest. After a brief pullback on Thursday, prices surged again on Friday as Climatempo, the Brazilian meteorological service, predicted an intensification of dry conditions and temperatures exceeding 40°C in the first week of October. In reaction to this, KCZ25 closed the week at 390.75, up 4.9% from Monday’s open and marking a two-week high. The previous rally at the beginning of September was tempered by well-timed opening rains. Will we see a similar pattern for the week ahead?

Adding to the bullish sentiment and market volatility are the ongoing uncertainties of Trump’s tariffs and their effect on certified stocks. Still without clarification as to whether coffee will become exempt, the impacts of the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports are already being felt, as the drawdown of certified ICE stocks climbs to 6,500 bags per day, double the rate from a month ago. Since July, ICE-certified stocks have declined 31% and Arabica inventories on Friday 3rd October sat at a 1.5-year low of 538,606 bags.

Origin

On 23rd September the European Commission announced a proposal to further delay the EU Deforestation Regulation by another year. If adopted, this would push back the EUDR’s application to 30th December 2026. The announcement comes following an initial one-year delay in response to stakeholder requests for more time to prepare for the new regulations back in October 2024, which moved the launch date to 30th December 2025.

There are concerns that some origins are still not compliant and ready for the legislation, which could create coffee shortages within the EU if the current go-live date is upheld. This would create increased stress on stock levels in the EU, which are already in short supply. The proposal is currently with the European Council and Parliament, who will need to approve it before it takes effect. Some organisations, such as Fairtrade, have voiced support for the delay.

In a recent presentation by Rabobank, it was noted that supply in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 0.9%. This would create the first meaningful surplus of coffee since the 2022/23 season, underpinned by high robusta production forecasts. Arabica production in Brazil is forecast to decline by 14.4% to 62.8 million bags in the 2025/26 cycle. Robusta, however, is expected to hit a record high, rising by 9.9%. The organisation also projects a 0.5% reduction in global demand in 2024/25. Price increases created by inflation and US tariffs are likely to continue hindering consumption, and most companies are reporting challenges in sales.

Coffee consumption is not only slowing in destination countries. A recent study of 4,000 people in Brazil, commissioned by the Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Café (ABIC), showed that 24% of respondents have recently reduced their coffee intake, as supermarket prices have increased by 40% in 2025 alone. Brazil is the world’s 2nd largest coffee consumption market.

COT & Certified Stocks

October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published. When the federal government operations return to normal, CFTC will resume publication of the Commitments of Traders in chronological order

Currency & Macro Outlook

The USD traded cautiously last week amidst a turbulent week in the US as the government had its first shutdown in almost seven years on Wednesday 1st October, due to Republicans and Democrats not being able to agree on a recent funding bill. The shutdown, which continued through to Friday, puts some US government services on hold, with 40% of the federal workforce on unpaid leave.

The bearish sentiment in the USD was supported by news from the ADP National Employment Report that private sector jobs fell by 32,000 in September. Overall, the USD weakened slightly throughout the week, with the DXY closing at 97.72, 0.45 points lower than Monday’s open.

The Pound and Euro showed a slight increase against the dollar last week, as markets focused on the US shutdown developments. Uncertainty regarding Rachel Reeve’s upcoming autumn budget has added pressure on the GBP, with the hint of potential tax rises in November and the possibility of fiscal changes such as the abolition of the two-child cap on benefits. The Euro also faced challenges as Eurozone median consumer inflation expectations increased to 2.8% in August 2025, the highest since August 2022.