November Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report 01/12/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 24th November to Friday 28th November and was written by Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

The week commencing 22^nd Nov saw a reduction in both trading volume and range. The March terminal KCH26 opened at 372.00 c/lb and finished the week, after a closure on Thursday 27^th for Thanksgiving, at 381.20 c/lb hardly a Black Friday sale!

The market quickly rebounded from the White House’s announcement of tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports being lifted the previous Thursday: closing on Monday a mere 0.10 c/lb lower than pre-announcement closure. While the market seems to be digesting how tariffs (or hereby lack of) will affect the market, news of reduced rainfall in Minas Gerais and other coffee growing regions in Brazil drove markets in the beginning of the week. Further support has been added to the market in recent months by the reduced ICE inventories, as US companies had been incentivised to draw down stocks from within the country. Reopening on Friday 28^th after Thanksgiving, the arabica market saw the lowest trading volume for the week but posted modest gains and closed 1.50 c/lb higher. The strengthening of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar disincentivised export by Brazilian producers and prompted short covering by market speculators, briefly rallying the market to the weekly high of 385.00 c/lb within the first 2 hours of trading, before a slow descent to close out the week at 381.20 c/lb.

The Robusta market, based in London, enjoyed a full 5 days of trading last week. Usually tracking very closely with the Arabica market, Robust bucked the trend on Monday, posting opposing movement following reports that rains had left up in Vietnam, offering some relief to producers and allowing the harvest to resume in some capacity. While the removal of tariffs on Coffee also affects the Robusta market, the uncertainty over the damage to crops in Vietnam, as well as future weather uncertainty, has kept London in check.

Origin

Over the last week Sumatra has been suffering extreme rain and flash floods as Cylcone Senyar has crossed the archipelago. This is just one of three cyclones currently in South-East Asia this monsoon season, and the extent of the damage they have caused is yet unknown. Dozens have died, and many more are missing as flood waters have risen to the height of roofs in some areas. The flooding has also caused mudslides and blackouts, and the remoteness of many affected areas means they are as yet unreachable, and communication is difficult. Northern Sumatra and Aceh provinces have been particularly affected, areas in which many of our partners are located. We have heard from our long-term partner, Permata Gayo Cooperative, that they are facing structural damage to their facilities. The rain and floods look set to continue; only once they have passed can we understand the full impact, but we expect to see our Indonesia supply chain be disrupted. Our thoughts are with all those affected.

In big, albeit not surprising news, EUDR has been postponed by another year. On Wednesday 26^th November MEPs voted in overwhelming favour to delay EUDR legislation coming into force and to simplify it in parts to make it easier for businesses to comply with the regulations. The simplification is largely related to the due diligence requirements, these include that the responsibility of submitting the due diligence statement should fall on the business which first introduces the product to the EU market, and not on those subsequently handling it. It is also proposed that the obligations for small and micro businesses will be reduced, and that they will only have to submit a one-off simplified declaration. Learn more in our latest update linked here.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the strength of the USD against a basket of other currencies, softened during last week – starting out at 100 and slipping to 99 by the end of the week. A string of economic reports are beginning to paint a clearer picture of the US, after a hiatus for several weeks following the government shutdown. Weaker than expected retail sales in September, as well as an anticipated Fed rate in December, have been pointed to as a factor in this recent weakening.

GBP/USD firmed near the end of the week following the budget announcement, which ended weeks of speculation and uncertainty. Doubling the fiscal headroom to £22 billion with a mix of measures, including tax threshold freezes that boosted the credibility of the GBP. Hovering around 1.32 GBP/USD mark, the upside of the Sterling has been limited by 2026 UK growth being revised down to 1.4%, and an expected rate cut from the BoE in December as well.

The EUR/USD also made gains last week as the USD softened, but the upside was limited by various fundamentals, including weak GDP growth in Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy. With inflation across the bloc holding close to the 2% target, many do not expect the ECB to cut interest rates in the near future.

Coffee Market Report 24/11/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 17th November to Friday 21st November and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market 

The market opened on Monday 17th November above the previous week’s close, when an executive order signed by Donald Trump lowered tariffs on food imports, including coffee. For Brazil however, the largest producer of Arabica Coffee, this only amounted to a 10% decrease in coffee tariffs, as the 40% blanket tariff on Brazil remained in place. The Coffee Arabica market spent much of the day in negative territory before rebounding near close because of late session fixations – Tuesday 18th marking the final day to square Dec-25 positions before the delivery window opens. This upwards momentum continued Tuesday as late roaster fixations continued, no doubt hoping to wait out the 20+ cl/b Dec/Mar switch, reaching the weekly maximum at 390.40 c/lb.

Once the flurry of last-minute fixations finished, the overall market bearish trend continued Wednesday and Thursday, driven by speculative selling. Thursday saw a brief rally, likely in response to the Robusta market, which had been posting gains throughout the week, but lack of speculative buying failed to keep the market afloat, and it ended up closing only 1.80 c/lb higher at 376.65 c/lb.

The main news of the week came after trading hours on Thursday, when Donald Trump announced that the remaining 40% tariffs on coffee imported from Brazil were to be scrapped. Opening 16.85 c/lb lower, aggressive selling drove the market even further in the first 10 minutes before commercial buyers looking to cash in on lower prices arrested the momentum. The market spent the first half of the trading day in the negatives, until 14:00 GMT / 09:00 EST when the price rebounded past the 360 c/lb open. Speculative buyers re-entered the market at this point, driving the market up to a close of 369.05 c/lb: 9.65 c/lb higher than market open, but 7.20 c/lb lower than the previous day’s close.

Origin

Heavy rains in central Vietnam’s coffee-growing region have caused concern for the Robusta harvest, when it should be at its peak. More than 60 deaths have been reported since the 16th of November, as over 1,900mm of rain has been recorded over the last week.

Colombia’s main harvest is also in full swing, and current estimates show a 13.5 million-bag decline in production due to climate challenges, notably from the first half of 2025, as well as the effect of La Niña in the coming months.

Brazil is forecasted to receive good rain in the coffee-growing regions in the coming week, providing further bearish sentiment to the market. This was countered by the above origin news last week, as well as a flurry of late switches, but if the rains prove as fruitful as predicted, we may see further losses in the arabica market in the coming week.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The cable exchange rate traded in a small window last week, kept down by weak UK retail sales and annual growth, but propped up by uncertainty surrounding inflation in the US due to tariffs among other policies. Hovering around 1.31 GBP/USD for much of the week, greater movement is expected after the UK’s budget announcement later this week. Additionally, months’ worth of backlogged US economic data is being released following the US government shutdown, which will paint a clearer picture of the scene across the pond.

The Brazilian Real saw a sharp weakening against the dollar at the end of last week, which coffee exporters in the country to sell since their USD stock was now worth more in BRL.

Coffee Market Report 17/11/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 10th November to Friday 14th November and was written by Tom Haigh.

Coffee Market 

Last week, Arabica coffee futures saw consolidation as the December 2025 contract (KCZ25) neared its final notice day on 19th November. As we move closer to the March 2026 contract (KCH26) switch, calendar spread premiums remain high to cover the spot contract, sitting above a 23 cts premium on Friday 7th Nov.

The week opened at 404.30 with a rally over the first two trading days, reaching highs of 423.95, before closing on Tues 11th at 422.70. The Dec/Mar spread also rose to 23.75, before settling on a new contract high of 21.80 ahead of the Dec Arabica options expiry on Weds 12th Nov. Bullish sentiment at the start of the week seemed to be driven by ongoing concerns of low certified stocks and tariff uncertainty.

In a Fox News interview on Tues 11th November, Trump alluded to a relaxation on coffee tariffs, stating “coffee, we’re going to lower some tariffs…We’re going to have some coffee come in. We’re going to take care of all this stuff very quickly, very easily.” This message was bolstered by a further Fox News interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Weds 12th, who suggested we would see a “substantial announcement over the next couple of days in terms of things we don’t grow here in the United States, coffee being one of them.”

The reaction was significant. The market reached lows of 400 on Weds 12th before closing the day at 403.65, while the Dec/Mar switch continued to climb to new highs of 27.75. The White House issued statements on 13th Nov indicating that reciprocal tariffs will be removed on certain exports from Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador. If the 10% reciprocal tariff for Brazilian exports to the US, including coffee, beef, and tropical fruits, is also removed, the country will still be subject to a 40% tax. On Saturday, Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin told reporters “we’ll keep working to reduce it further…In the case of coffee, it makes no sense, 40% is still high.”Thursday 13th and Friday 14th traded within a narrower range, yet continued on a downward trajectory, supported with news of coffee being submitted to the ICE Exchange, easing pressure on low stocks. The week closed just under the 400 mark at 399.80.

Origin

Peru’s coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.2 million 60-kg bags, up 8% from last year. This is in part driven by higher demand, influenced by U.S. tariffs as roasters seek Brazil alternatives. The US remains Peru’s top buyer (27%).

Overall crop reports from Peru are good, with improved quality and volumes linked to better fertiliser use. The country is the world’s top organic coffee exporter, with 90,000 hectares certified. The total harvested area for coffee remains at 335,000 hectares, with yields averaging 721 kg per hectare, a 2% increase on the previous year. Well-managed farms can reach 2,700 kg per hectare (45 bags).

Despite this growth, challenges persist. Coffee leaf rust, which dates to 2012, has affected 40% of the crop, and coffee borer damage is common at lower altitudes. As 90% of Peruvian coffee is grown by smallholders, access to credit is limited, with producers relying on cooperative structures to access financing. Overall, fertiliser accounts for 24% of production costs, while labour accounts for 58%.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The Dollar Index traded downwards throughout the week over increased speculation on Fed rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve Meeting on Dec 10th. If Fed rate cuts were to happen, this would mark three cuts this year, following previous rate cuts in September and October. After reaching 2-week lows on Thurs 13th November, the DXY bounced back on Friday 14th following comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan arguing against additional cuts.

The EUR had a strong 2-week high against the dollar, before falling ~0.12% on Friday. Losses were limited by news that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, up from 0.1% in the previous period. GBP had an early downtick against the dollar following news that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves dropped the plan to raise income tax rates ahead of the budget on November 26th, before gaining back some ground later in the week.

Coffee Market Report 10/11/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 3rd November to Friday 7th November and was written by Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

The market open on Monday at 392.75 c/lb, which would turn out to be not only the low of the day, but of the entire week. It hit a high of 409.40, making the daily range an impressive 16.65 c/lb, before closing at 406.65 c/lb. Tuesday had a comparatively smaller range of 12.75 c.lb, but closed just 1.40 c/lb below open, at 405.25 c/lb.

Wednesday was the high of the week, opening at 403.35 c/lb, hitting a massive 418.05 c/lb, before closing at a still substantial 413.60 c/lb. A trading range of 15.05 c/lb, and the highest the market hit in two weeks.

Thursday saw a sharp reversal of the previous day’s rally, retreating after failing to sustain follow-through buying at the high levels seen on Wednesday. Open was 415.50 c/lb, close to the high of 416.25 c/lb, and close was 395.75 c/lb, which was also the low of the day.

Friday saw another reversal, with the market rallying once more. Although not before bouncing between 393.65 c/lb and 412.65 c/lb. The largest daily range of the week at 19 c/lb. Friday also saw the first day of the commodity index fund rolling period, which will continue until Thursday, 13^th November.

Overall, the week trended bullish, closing at 407.80 c/lb, 15.05 c/lb higher than open. Although the degree of volatility in the market day to day was very high. Much of the movement in this reporting period has been driven by speculators, with many of the industry buyers remaining largely on the sidelines.

Origin

Weather in Brazil is currently looking promising, there has been enough rain for the flowers to set, meaning the outlook for the 26/27 crop is positive, with some even suggesting it will be a record-breaking crop! However, the tariff issue has yet to be resolved. A meeting between Lula and Trump took place on 26^th October at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, which was described as “constructive” and further negotiations between the US and Brazil are to take place.

In the US, the Senate has also passed legislation to overturn the tariffs against Brazil, with the Senate passing this measure 52 votes to 48, with support from both Republicans and Democrats. This bill is currently with the House of Representatives, where it is expected to be stalled. The House is controlled by Republicans and has repeatedly voted against attempts to overturn Trump’s tariffs. The ongoing impact of the 50% on Brazil is that producers and exporters are holding back as they are reluctant to sell, slowing the flow of coffee.

COT & Certified Stocks

October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published. When the federal government operations return to normal, CFTC will resume publication of the Commitments of Traders in chronological order.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The US Dollar remains under pressure as the US government shutdown continues. The longer it goes on for, the more likely the US economy will suffer as a result. This shutdown began on 1st October and has so far lasted 40 days (at the time of writing), making it the longest shutdown in US history. As a result of the shutdown many government services are suspended, and around 1.4 million federal employees are not being paid, some are working unpaid, others are not working. The impact is serious and widespread, including air travel and food benefits for over 41 million low-income Americans. The impact on the US Dollar has been that the DXY Index has been decreasing in value since 5^th November, sitting at 99.60 by the end of the week, after hitting 100.36 on 5^th.

Sterling had a mixed week. Beginning the week at 1.313 GBP/USD, dropping on Wednesday to 1.301, and recovering by Friday and closing at 1.316.

The Euro followed a similar pattern, opening 1.153, dropping to 1.146 on Wednesday, before recovering and closing at 1.156 on Friday. As both currencies experienced similar fluctuations against the US Dollar, it is likely these moves were driven more by USD fluctuations than GBP or EUR.