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May Coffee Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

 

Coffee Market Report 20/05/2024

This report covers the period from Monday 13th May to Friday 17th May and was written by Jack Ravenscroft.

Coffee Market

Predictably, the gentle meanders of last week reported by Philip Searle came to a swift end with July ’24 quoted between 192.75 and 207.15 across the week. The peak came from a stern market rally on Friday with the C market closing at 206.60, gaining 870 points during the days’ trading. Perhaps the generally brightening macro backdrop helped the market shake off some midweek apathy?

Weather continues to play a key role in market dynamics. The Brazilian arabica harvest has started in many regions and will pick up pace in the coming weeks. Itaú BBA maintained their harvest estimate for the 2024/25 Brazilian crop at 69.4 million bags. Weather conditions seem agreeable for now. However, as the Brazilian winter approaches, the market will continue to monitor any forecasted cold fronts. Any potential frost concerns will cause increased volatility.

Certified stocks have risen to above 750,000 bags, with an increase in certified stock usage over the first two weeks of May totalling 35,000 bags. As per last week, this bearish signal is offset by the uncertainty in Vietnam that continues to prop up the Arabica market.

COT & certified stocks

↓ Non-commercials reduced their net long position to 40,005.

↑ ICE Arabica certified stock levels increased to 760,383 bags.

↓ Arabica pending grading: 34,993 bags

Origin

Ethiopia

Financing constraints in Ethiopia mean high-quality lots are scarce. This is a product of new regulations mandating cash payments to farmers and brokers before coffee is moved to Addis. This has been compounded by recent high prices in the Arabica market prompting most of the coffee already in Addis to be sold. As such, local prices are on the rise.

The Red Sea crisis continues to have implications on logistics across Africa, with reported container shortages and increased costs from some shipping lines. This fear is reflected in the uptick of the Drewry World Container Index in recent weeks. Due to the scarcity of 20ft containers in Addis, shippers have started employing 40ft containers to ship their cargo.

Brazil

Sticking to the same theme, logistical problems are also on the rise in Brazil. In the month of April, 80% of container ships due to export coffee from the Port of Santos suffered schedule changes and / or delays. Furthermore, only 11% of shipments had a gate opening period of more than 4 days for the Port of Santos. This figure is the lowest number since the survey began 18 months ago.

“Brazilian exporters continue to face intense logistical challenges, with the high rate of ship delays and the lack of space at the Santos port, resulting in inefficiencies and adding significant extra costs to coffee players” comments Eduardo Heron, technical director of Cecafé.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The USD struggled to find direction last week. A recent US inflation report suggested some cooling, leading to optimism about potential interest rate cuts. Despite this, the US dollar index saw some weakening over the past week.

GBP/USD climbed close to a two-month high, with the uptick in the currency appearing to be linked to a modest repricing of Bank of England interest rate cut bets.

EUR traded sideways on Friday, following mixed comments from European Central Bank officials.

Coffee Market Report 13/05/2024

This report covers the period from Monday 6th May to Friday 10th May and was written by Phil Searle.

Coffee Market

At the start of the week, we experienced more domination by the specs and witnessed some spec selling pushing the market down to 195.20c/lb – interesting to note that this was a very similar level to where they all became trigger-happy and pumped the market.

The rest of the week, we meandered gently (for once) over the hump of the 200 level. The recent fund liquidation appears to have come to an end and the industry has its sights on Vietnam’s rainfall, the harvesting of Brazil’s crop and if there are changes to the crop forecasts which were issued around flowering time.

Certified stocks continue to increase, this should technically put downward pressure on the market but the dire situation in the robusta market is one of the main reasons for the arabica remaining steady.

COT & certified stocks

↑ Non-commercials reduced their net long by 5,633 lots to a total 43,343 net long.

↓ Today’s Arabica certified stock level: 682,306 bags (4,652 bags drawn down since last week)

↑ Arabica pending grading: 94,734 bags

Origin

Vietnam’s weather remains a main factor affecting coffee prices. According to the latest reports, 40% of the coffee trees in Dak Lak, which represent one-third of the coffee production, haven’t received enough water, and the province this month has received precipitations 50 % lower than last year.

Dryness in Brazil could reduce yields. Similar to Vietnam, Brazil needs water and some rain. Mass hot, dry air continues to dominate coffee-growing areas with no forecast of rain/falling temps.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The Bank of England left its key rate (the key interest rate) at 5.25%. This remains at a 16-year high and it has been ‘stuck’ here for six consecutive meetings.

So that we don’t have all negative news to read, the UK economy grew stronger than expected in q1, leaving the small recession it founds itself during the back end of last year.