March Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 23rd March to Friday 27th March and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market

Opening at 308.80 usc/lb, the Arabica market almost fell below 300 usc/lb on Monday 23rd, with news of favourable meteorological reports for the 26/27 harvest in Brazil. However, any positive fundamentals have been somewhat countered by the ongoing conflict in Iran. After initial comments from Trump that talks were ‘very good and productive’, oil futures tanked -14% and many other commodities followed suit. Iranian state-linked media seemed to counter these comments, and towards the end of the day these conflicting reports left markets uncertain and on edge.

Fear of short-term supply which then sparked short covering pushed the market up on Tuesday, closing over 10 usc/lb higher than Monday at 317.85 usc/lb. This was followed by another indecisive day on Wednesday, before Marex released a projection of 75.9 million bags for 26/27 Brazil crop on Thursday – up on all other recent projections. The week then closed out at 301.70 usc/lb – a net decrease of 7.10 usc/lb for the week.

Currency and Macro

The GBP/USD pair started and finished the week at almost the same level: with lows of 1.325 on Monday 23rd March and the week closing around 1.326. After Donald Trump’s announcement on Monday, hinting at a possible ceasefire, the DXY collapsed from over 100 to 99 as market’s risk appetite returned – driving the GBP/USD pair up to 1.345. The rest of the week was spent in decline, as fears of inflation in the wake of the Iran conflict are set to affect the UK more than any other major economy this year.

The EUR/USD fared similarly throughout the week as geopolitical uncertainty broadly affected the GBP and EUR similarly. Notably, the Eurozone is forecast to be slightly better off than their neighbours across the channel, and as a result the GBP/EUR declined from around 1.156 to 1.152 on Friday.

Origin

Kenya is planning to contract a Coffee Training Centre at the Coffee Research Institute, with the aim of doubling coffee production in the country. To aid with development, Kenya have partnered with Italy, with Italy’s Director General for Development Cooperation deeming the collaboration ‘mutually beneficial’ and highlighting the significance of coffee to both cultures.

In Hawai’i, Kona lows (a seasonal cyclone in the pacific islands) on 10th and 19th March 2026 have caused significant damage to coffee farms and nurseries alike. Losses have been estimated at $10 million. The island’s agricultural foundation and farm bureau have launched a relief program for affects farmers to recover from the damage caused.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 16th March to Friday 20th March and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market

The Arabica market opened last week on a stronger note; opening at 284.55 usc/lb, it hit the low for the week within 2 hours of opening (281.60 usc/lb) before rallying up to 292.85 usc/lb by close on Monday 16th. Tuesday and Wednesday traded around this range before the market really started picking up on Thursday, after which it closed out the week at 309.75 usc/b – up 25.2 usc/lb for the week.

Factors affecting the market this week remain mostly unchanged – disruption to global shipping caused by the closure of the strait of Hormuz (although mostly indirect for coffee), and the resulting increase in insurance, freight, and oil prices. Despite all reports pointing to a bumped crop for Brazil next year, spot FOB shipments remain expensive and export volume low which is pushing the price up in the short term.

Currency and Macro

In the currency world, news is still very much dominated by the conflict in Iran and the knock-on effects. Net oil importers including most of Europe, are left somewhat on the back foot vs the USD, which by some measures is a net exporter of oil. However, due to differences in oil produced and oil refined or imported for refining, the escalating costs are likely to be felt by the consumer across both sides of the pond.

Both the BoE and the ECB held interest rates last week in anticipation of inflation caused by the conflict in the Middle East among other factors. Both currency pairs (GBP/USD and EUR/USD) made large gains on Thursday 19th March after the announcements, before settling on Friday to around 1.340 / 1.157 respectively.

Origin

Vietnam’s coffee exports have been increasing recently, with their National Statistics Office reporting 14% year-or-year in exports for Jan/Feb ’26. This is compounded with 2025 increase of 17.5% year-on-year, with projections estimating a 4-year high in exports for 2026.

In neighbouring Laos, Vietnamese agrobusiness Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group (HAGL) has announced plans to develop a 15,000-hectare coffee plantation by 2028 as part of its wider efforts to expand its presence within the industry. Other investments in the area includes processing facilities, including the ability to extract coffee essence from coffee by products such as cascara.

The minimum weekly price set by the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority was reduced last week to encourage exports and discourage carrying stock. Certain shipments from East Africa have been re-routed via the cape of Good Hope (South Africa) adding days and weeks onto European shipments.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 9th March to Friday 13th March and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market

The market opened on 09/03 at 296.95 usc/lb, higher than the previous week’s close of 293.30 usc/lb and pushed above the 300 usc/lb psychological mark in early trading. Fuelled by fears of lack of fuel as Crude Oil futures (CLJ26) pushed 120 $/barrel on Monday, the Arabica market also fell back in line with Crude Oil throughout the day – with Arabica (KCK26) closing out at 296.90 while Oil tanked to 94.77 $/barrel.

Tuesday’s trading on the Arabica market was somewhat muted, with an early push for 300 usc/lb failing to materialise. Any early indecision was swept aside on Wednesday, as the market tumbled through the 290 usc/lb resistance and even bottomed out below 285, before regaining some to close out at 287.40 usc/lb. Thursday saw these losses reverse as a reduction of 12,434 bags in certified stocks and an increase in Oil prices drove it back towards 300 but ultimately closed at 291.90 usc/lb. After Thursday close, certified stocks increased again by 10,912 bags and at the same time StoneX released a revised estimate for Brazil 26/27 coffee production up to 75.3 million bags (up from November’s estimate of 70.7 million bags). When combined with Friday’s rise in the Dollar Index (DXY), and particularly its effect on the USD/BRL pair, a drop in the market was inevitable, with the week closing out at a low of 285.15 usc/lb.

Currency and Macro

The currency market has been dominated recently by the conflict in Iran, with investors shoring up in the greenback (USD) in the wake of geopolitical uncertainty. The DXY briefly dipped below it’s still (relatively) high 98.75 early in the week before rebounding above 100 by the end of the week – the first time since Nov-25.

The Pound Sterling fared slightly better than other European currencies this week, with the news of the economy stagnating in January driving investors to believe that interest rates may remain where they are in the short term.

Origin

Despite all reports pointing towards a bumper Brazil Crop in 26/27, current exports remain down. Last week I quoted a report from Brazil’s Ministry of Trade which specified a 17.4% decrease in exports for Feb ’26. Cecafé released a report last week (10th March) which detailed an even larger 23%+* drop in exports for the same period. Taken in isolation, this might look bad, but several factors in the market could account for the export figures, including producers holding inventory in the hope of higher prices (after the market drop in Feb). A source in Brazil told us that after a sustained period of higher prices, producers/exporters have enough cash from the harvest to sustain them, giving them little incentive to shift stock in a falling market.

While neither a coffee growing origin, nor a major shipping route for coffee cargo, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has undoubtedly influenced the global coffee supply chain. As mentioned within the market report section of this report, oil futures are perhaps the most obvious factor, with knock on consequences such as shipping delays and freight prices rising. Finally, the supply of fertilizers, which do ship through the Strait, is likely to be disrupted in the short term, leading to potential shortages looking ahead.

*Online publications vary in the exact figure between ~23–27%, and Cecafé has not officially published this report on their website yet, so we have not been able to independently verify the figure.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 2nd March to Friday 5th March and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market

In the absence of too much origin related news, last week’s market movements seemed mostly affected by geopolitical instability due to an evolving situation in the middle east. The US-Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as the retort, have all but halted vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, shipping lines remain cautious of the Red Sea for fear of (yet to materialise) Yemeni Houthi rebel strikes. All of this culminates to significantly longer shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope as well as higher freight and insurance costs.

Opening the week at 279.90 usc/lb, the market flirted with the 290 mark before briefly breaking through and receding on Tuesday. The upwards pressure continued through the week with marginally higher closes on Wednesday and Thursday, with Friday opening 5.45 usc/lb up on previous day close – possibly aided by Brazil’s report that year-on-year exports from Brazil fell 17.4% in Feb.

Origin

Excess rainfall in Colombia has led to challenging growing conditions; with flowering, maturation and bean development affected. This has been broadly felt across Colombia but particularly in the south where reduced sunshine has compounded the matter. When combined with the appreciated Colombia Peso, and the recent fall in the C market, Colombia producers and exporters are facing a large reduction in expected income versus last year. This has led to lower exports and higher inventory as exporters wait for more favourable conditions, selling when necessary.

In Honduras, the harvest is well past its peak, at an estimated 75%+ completion. In the lower lying regions, the harvest has all but concluded leaving only the higher altitude farms to be collected. The purchasing of cherry/parchment in Honduras is currently mixed, with exporters who secured contracts at a higher market actively buying while those with a sparser forward book holding off purchasing for now.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The currency markets were again led by the evolving situation in the middle east, with USD shoring up in the immediate aftermath of the weekend’s strikes. Oil importing economies such as Europe and the UK tend to see their value depreciate against oil producing nations such as the US, who may be more protected against inflation in such instances.

After dropping sharply to 1.327 / 1.155 for GBP/USD and EUR/USD respectively, both currency pairs regained some ground by Tuesday afternoon to around 1.332 / 1.160. The rest of the week saw trading mainly range bound, albeit it a lower range than the preceding weeks, as investors tried to grapple with the unfolding situation oversees.