Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!
This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.
Live Market Data
Coffee Market Report 24/03/2025
This report covers the period from Monday 17th March to Friday 21st March and was written by Dave Rabbich.
Coffee Market
Well it was never going to be very long before we saw another bullish week on the New York Arabica market. Starting us off on the 17th at 377.50 c/lb we saw 4 days of consecutive rise. The high of the week was 397.50 c/lb and on Friday it retracted slighty and closed at 391.40 c/lb.
The price rise has largely been driven by dry weather concerns in Brazil, negatively affecting the size of the upcoming crop. Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, Conab, has reduced their 25/26 crop estimate down by 4.4% year on year to a 3 year low of 51.8 million bags. However, on the other side Marex has estimated that global coffee surpluses will have risen from 200,000 bags to 1.2 million bags by the 2025/2026 crop.
The London Robusta had more of mixed week but still settled higher at 5,515 $/MT from an open of 5,418 $/MT. Further news about Vietnam’s upcoming dry weather forecasts are helping to push nearby prices higher as well.
Origin
Trump’s decision to freeze USA.I.D will have large reverberations throughout the coffee industry. On an annual basis it would invest large amounts in coffee communities at origin as just one of its strategies to improve rural development and increase food security. This ranges from building dry mills in Burundi, supporting coffee breeding programmes and creating projects to improve market accessibility and environmental stability in Indonesia. Data collected had shown that on average for every $1 spent, there was an impact of $8, primarily in rural, developing countries (in agriculture sectors over a typical four-year period). There is little doubt that should the freeze continue, long term negative impacts will be felt throughout the coffee world, likely resulting in higher prices for roasters and consumers and reduced production and income for producers.
Ports in Nicaragua and Honduras have been experiencing delays due to a lack of equipment and vessels. This has been compounded by a delayed start to the harvest, in many areas around 45 days. This is placing a strain on exporter’s cash flows which are already under pressure due to the high market and reduced risk tolerance for lending by many central American banks.
COT & certified stocks
↓ The Non-commercials decreased their overall net long to 36,418 futures lots.
↓The Commercials reduced their net short to -75,942 futures lots.
Currency & Macro Outlook
The US Dollar has made back a little bit of the ground that it lost in the first two weeks of March and so we have seen the Pound fall from its levels of 1.30 despite the BOE holding interest rates at 4.5%. The greenback has recently fallen in value due to Trump’s trade wars and fierce rhetoric prompting fears that he could tip the US Economy into a recession. Although some predictions indicate that the Dollar could strengthen over the next few days as April tariff levels are announced. Currency doesn’t get as much focus as the C market when coffee prices being discussed by roasters and the like, but it should. A movement from 1.26 to 1.30 in the £/$ can swing prices by as much as £0.28 per kg at the moment.
Coffee Market Report 17/03/2025
This report covers the period from Monday 10th March to Friday 14th March, and was written by Phil Searle.
Coffee Market
The NY market began the week with limited volume and minimal movement compared to recent days, weeks, and months. While traders enjoyed a reprieve from constant market monitoring, stops were triggered as prices crossed the 20-day moving average.
On Wednesday, the market broke its support level but found buying interest at session lows—a trend that persisted throughout the week. Light roaster buying was observed, while origin sellers largely held back, waiting for the 400c/lb mark. The May/July switch weakened further, trading around 6.90c/lb. Traders remain on edge, anticipating Brazil crop news that could narrow the spread.
COT & Certified Stocks
↑ Commercials increased their long positions by lots to 44,750 lots.
↑ Short positions increased by 205 lots to 122,734 lots.
↑ Futures and Options Open Interest increased by 3514 to 222,380
Origin
Exports from Brazil dropped by 3.3 million bags in February. Rainfall has improved conditions, particularly for Arabica in South Minas and Mogiana. These figures are expected to remain stable, with only a few active buyers willing to purchase at elevated prices. Brazilian coffee remains expensive due to easing differentials in Central America, Colombia, and Vietnam. Weather has been warm and sunny, but much-needed rain is now forecasted. Concerns over low precipitation levels have been alleviated as rain arrives just in time.
Colombia’s Coffee flow remains slow as the country transitions between harvests. The fly crop is set to begin in early April, and there’s optimism about both quality and yield—great news for the industry!
The harvest season in Ethiopia has concluded, with both volume and quality exceeding expectations. Consistent rainfall during the growing season supported optimal cherry development, and crop estimates are around 8.8 million bags. Competitive Ethiopian pricing brings positive momentum to the market.
The main harvest is complete in Kenya, and attention now shifts to the fly crop. Coffee flow remains steady, with dry mills operating at full capacity. Auction volumes are promising, and farmers are benefiting from high prices.
Currency & Macro Outlook
DXY
No market report feels complete without mentioning Trump. Congratulations to him on his latest win at Trump International Golf Club—a brief distraction before he imposed a 25% duty on steel and aluminium imports. Naturally, Canada responded with counter-tariffs.
In other news, the UK job market cooled in February, with salaries rising at their slowest pace in four years. Meanwhile, the US dollar softened at the end of last week following a sharp decline in the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index. With US recession fears largely driven by declining consumer confidence, these figures weighed heavily on USD exchange rates.
Coffee Market Report 10/03/2025
This report covers the period from Monday 3rd March to Friday 7th March, and was written by Hannah Wakefield.
Coffee Market
When the market opened on Monday 3rd March at 375.70 c/lb, it seemed like the bullish sentiment was easing and we were over the spike of the market, however, this was a false sense of security, and over the next 3 days the bulls were back in full force. Monday’s close (386.65 c/lb) was the first close since 21st February that was above the 20-day moving average, which is a technical sign for momentum-driven buying the following day. Surprise, surprise, this is exactly what happened, the market faced little resistance and broke back through the 400 c/lb level, settling again above the 20-day moving average. This continued to fuel the bull run, with Wednesday 5th March opening at 402 c/lb and increasing 7 c/lb in just the first hour of trading. It peaked at 418.55 c/lb (also the high of the week), but wasn’t able to sustain the momentum and closed at 409.95 c/lb.
This saw the tide turn, as both Thursday 6th and Friday 7th March saw the market close lower than it opened. The week closed out at 384.40 c/lb, still 8.70 c/lb higher than the week open, despite the easing off we saw in the second half of the week. Overall this week has had the biggest range in trading of the year so far, with it’s high at a staggering 45.50 c/lb higher than the previous weeks close.
COT & certified stocks
↓ Commercials reduced their long position by 270 lots to 41,034 lots
↑ Increased their short position by 1,277 lots to 122,529 lots.
↑ Open interest increased by 501 lots to 162,373, with options increased by 3,100 lots to 218,866 lots.
↓ Arabica certified stocks decreased to 797,826 bags in total.
↓ Arabica 46,707 bags are pending grading.
Origin
Supply chains across origins have come under strain in recent months, and Brazil is certainly effected. Initial figures from Cecafe state that in February 2025 2.87 million bags of green coffee were exported from Brazil, which is a significant 20.5% lower than the same month in 2024. This is due to lower production, but also to logistical challenges in getting coffee on the water, and persistent supply chain issues where farmers are reluctant to sell their coffee whilst the price may continue to go up. These issues are causing trouble for the whole industry, and one of the biggest coffee exporters in Brazil, Montesanto Tavares, has recently filed for bankruptcy after unsuccessful attempts to renegotiate R$2.13 billion in debt.
However, there is some positive news from Brazil too! The weather forecast is predicting rainy showers for a number of days, which is positive for the crop following the less than ideal hot and dry weather they have had recently.
Coffee production in Colombia hit a 29-year high in February. Over the previous 12 months (March 2024 – February 2025) a staggering 14.79 million bags of Colombian coffee were produced. In February 2025 alone, production hit 1.36 million bags, an increase of 42%, according to the FNC.
Exports from Colombia have also increased, with 1.18 million bags being exported in February, an increase of 14%. Over the last 12 months the total number of bags exported was 12.68 million, 17% up against the previous 12 months. However, whilst this is positive news, it doesn’t mean that there are no delays to be expected with Colombian coffee, as the majority is exported to the USA (around 40%).
Currency & Macro Outlook
Another week has gone by where President Trump’s actions have had repercussions in the markets. Tariffs are still very much the talk of the town. The US president has criticized Canadian tariffs on US dairy and lumber, and is threatening reciprocal ones unless Canada removes their tariffs. He has continued to hint at further tariffs being imposed on imported goods and announced the increase of tariffs on steel and aluminium, which come into play on Wednesday, 12th March. The chair of the Fed, Powell, has stated that the impact of these tariffs remains unknown as of yet and tried to reassure that despite this, the Fed are “not in a hurry” to cut rates.
In addition to the tariffs, Trump’s firing of civil servants resulted in a 10,000-person reduction of federal employees and contributed to an increase in unemployment in the US to 4.1%. The impact of this uncertainty has been seen across markets, with the USD weakening, trading at 1 GBP to 1.29 USD as of 10th March.
Coffee Market Report 03/03/2025
This report covers the period from Monday 24th February to Friday 28th February, and was written by Priscilla Daniel.
Coffee Market
After ending the previous week with significant declines, Arabica and Robusta coffee futures fell again last week. On Monday 24th February Arabica May-25 opened at 389.25usc/lb and then decline with a close on Friday 28th February at 373.05 usc/lb with the lowest level on Wednesday 26th February at 366.30. It was a more quiet week on the Intra- day volatility as the highest one 8.90 usc/lb range on Tuesday 25th February.
There is still a premium for the spot contract in the highly backwardated market, as certified stock levels continue to decline. The coffee supply pipeline remains tight, with reduced availability at destinations due to logistical challenges and increased liquidity requirements for importers and traders. This scarcity is driving up the value of spot coffee.
However, improved weather in Brazil and expectations of higher Arabica stock levels pressured prices further. The strengthening U.S. dollar also contributed to the decline, reinforcing the inverse correlation between the dollar and coffee prices A strong surge was observed at the beginning of the year. From late 2024 until the peak recorded on February 13, the New York contract rose 35%, while the dollar fell 6.7% against the real. This inverse correlation between the dollar and coffee prices became evident last week: Arabica coffee fell 4.2%, while Robusta dropped 6.8%, in contrast with the dollar’s 2.8% appreciation, reaching R$ 5.899. Additionally, the weakness in the Brazilian real led to long liquidations, pushing coffee prices to a one-month low on February 26.
COT & certified stocks
↓ The Non-Commercials decreased their Net Long Position by 1,372 lots to total 41,791 lots Net Long.
↓ Arabica certified stocks decreased to 805,588 bags in total.
↓ Open interest decreased by 811 lots to 161,872 and with options decreased by -2,023 lots to 215,766
– Arabica 77,454 bags are pending grading.
Origin
A survey by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) of 23 member companies—representing 65% of total shipments—revealed that persistent shipping delays, frequent schedule changes, and cargo rollovers led to 672,113 unshipped 60-kg bags (equivalent to 2,037 containers) in January 2025. These ongoing logistical bottlenecks at Brazilian ports have resulted in significant financial losses for exporters, totaling R$ 6.134 million in January alone and R$ 57.7 million over the past eight months (from June 2024 to January 2025). The additional costs stem from storage fees, detentions, pre-stacking, and gate anticipation expenses.
Between January and the third week of February 2025, coffee exports declined by 6.6% compared to the same period in 2024, amounting to US$ 42.18 billion.
Coffee Network (Bogota) – Colombian green coffee exports totaled 11.42 million bags in 2024, an increase of 17% compared with 9.73 million bags exported in 2023. The exported volume increased in the main markets except for China, the coffee exporters association Asoexport said.
CoffeeNetwork (New York)—In January, Uganda’s coffee exports totaled 550,341 60-kg bags, marking a 14.43% increase compared to the same month last year. This included 485,99 bags of Robusta (up 20.64%) and 63,342 bags of Arabica (down 17.59%). Robusta drove the rise in overall exports, while Arabica exports decreased due to a biannual off-year cycle and poor flowering in the Mt. Elgon region.
Currency & Macro Outlook
As mentioned in the first part of the report. USD up slightly & BRL down which correlated with a bearish market for coffee.
The Pound Sterling’s recent gains are occurring amid heightened geopolitical concerns, with discussions of a U.S.-UK trade deal suggesting the UK is less vulnerable to President Trump’s tariff plans. This week’s key event is the tariff announcements on Mexico, Canada, and China, set for March 4th, which could influence global forex markets for the week and month ahead. The Pound’s rise occurred mainly on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, leaving the Pound-to-Euro (GBPEUR) exchange rate overbought, as it diverges from the nine-day exponential moving average at 1.2081.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump ended in a confrontation over the war with Russia. Trump accused Zelensky of “disrespect” and threatened to withdraw U.S. support, straining relations between the two nations. As a result, Zelensky did not sign a minerals agreement with the U.S. This clash and the unsigned contract may lead to short-term market volatility and uncertainty, potential disruptions in critical minerals, agriculture, and energy markets, and a stronger European economic influence if the U.S. reduces its involvement. The EU is also likely to increase its defense budget, as security concerns grow, with plans already in place to boost military spending.
