June Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report 30/06/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 23rd June to Friday 27th June and was written by Phil Searle. 

Coffee Market

The market opened the week attempting to rebound from the sharp 30c/lb drop seen the previous week. After a significant slide, it found support at 311.75 and managed to close above the 200-day moving average at 323.13 (Sep25 contract). This recovery was driven in part by forecasts of a cold air mass set to sweep across Southeast Brazil, raising concerns about lower temperatures in key coffee-growing regions.

However, the feared cold snap turned out to be milder than expected, triggering a reversal back toward the 311.75 support level. As the week progressed, the market drifted lower, pressured by consistent fund selling—both profit-taking and a broader reduction in exposure.

Despite this, speculative positioning remains net long and still above the five-year average. Around this time of year, it’s not unusual to see seasonal selling by specs—often influenced by developments in Brazil. That said, such selling is typically met with buying from industry participants.

Interestingly, commercials are also cutting back on their positions. This could suggest growing margin call pressures or a more cautious approach as volatility persists.

Origin

With frost risk no longer looming in Brazil, producers and traders are breathing a collective sigh of relief. Growing conditions have been largely favourable, supporting steady crop development. Activity remains brisk in robusta-producing regions, where record-breaking volumes are expected this season.

July forecasts in Colombia point to average weather conditions—welcome relief after prolonged downpours. While the coffee crop itself remains largely stable, challenges are mounting in parchment drying due to lingering moisture. If this bottleneck continues, it could begin to compromise bean quality.

Meanwhile, the mitaca (mid-crop) harvest is proceeding steadily, with the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) reporting about 54% collected in active zones. Further south, key departments including Cauca, Huila, Nariño, and Tolima are now entering their primary harvest period.

La Niña’s return has led to heightened rainfall across Indonesia, with regions such as Bali, Flores, Sulawesi, and Sumatra forecasted to experience a wet week. The persistent rains are disrupting flowering patterns and sparking worries about potential fungal outbreaks. In addition, the damp conditions are hindering the harvesting and drying of coffee beans

Monsoon rains arrived in India during the final week of May, earlier than the norm. Traditionally reaching Kerala in early June and expanding nationwide by mid-July, this year’s monsoon is advancing swiftly. It’s now intensifying, delivering heavy showers across the west coast, central areas, and northern parts of the country.

COT & certified stocks

↓ The Non-commercials decreased their overall net long to 15,998 futures lots.

↓ The Commercials reduced their net short to -51,247 futures lots.

↑ Overall Open interest increased to 183,7978 futures lots.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The US dollar has slumped to its lowest level against the Euro since 2021, pressured by soft consumer data and a rise in unemployment. Mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have further weighed on the greenback. Adding to the uncertainty, speculation is swirling around President Trump’s potential move to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell—an announcement that could come as early as this summer.

The U.S. economy contracted more sharply than first reported in Q1, with GDP falling at an annualized rate of 0.5%—a notable downgrade from the earlier 0.2% estimate. The revision reflects weaker-than-expected consumer spending, which rose just 0.5%, and a surge in imports ahead of sweeping new tariffs. These factors, coupled with soft external demand, underscore the mounting pressure on domestic growth.

Coffee Market Report 24/06/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 16th June to Friday 20th June and was written by Dave Rabbich. 

Coffee Market

In the week starting 16th June the New York Arabica market took on a heavy bearish touch as it fell each of the 4 days it was open (it was closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday). Opening the week at 345.90 c/lb vs September it took a tumble from positive supply data, primarily coming from Brazil’s ongoing harvest. Still in line with the 5 year average of 35% harvested at this stage it continues without any major disruption. The approach of First Notice Day for the July-25 contract enforced a time limit on market participants to exit their positions, and as the market receded, we saw the funds liquidate their longs. New York ended its week at 315.05 c/lb, its lowest level since January 2025.

London Robusta fell over the week like Arabica and reached a 13th month low, only managing to get some bull action on Thursday when Arabica was closed (perhaps some traders were bored and just wanted something to buy). It closed out the week on 3,737 US$/MT. In recent months it looks like Robusta has lost its edge and no longer leads the coffee charge like in its glory days in 2024.

Origin

At this time of year, coffees eyes are on Brazil as the harvest progresses, and to watch out for potential frost risk as it’s their winter season. A number of models exist to predict upcoming weather events, but as you will know from our own weather predictions in Europe – they are rarely spot on. A polar air mass is expected to reach central-southern Brazil around 25th June, potentially bringing temperatures below 5°C. These chilly conditions may continue through late June into early July, predicting that the cold air will remain concentrated in southern Brazil and Minas Gerais. Additionally, increased humidity and rainfall are expected.

The rising demand for specialty coffee in India has also spurred interest in more sustainable sourcing practices. Research suggests that coffee farms could serve dual roles, not only supporting in-situ biodiversity conservation but also supplying seeds and seedlings for forest restoration in nearby areas. In India, coffee is mainly cultivated in rain-rich regions under the shade of diverse native tree species. During canopy pruning, farmers often clear seeds that could instead be collected—or “rescued”—to aid conservation and restoration efforts.

Studies show that the number of ecologically valuable species found on coffee farms is significantly higher than those available in public nurseries managed by the forest department. This model offers a promising approach to extending restoration and conservation efforts beyond the farms themselves, helping regenerate surrounding landscapes as well.

COT & certified stocks

↓ The Non-commercials decreased their overall net long to 20,758 futures lots.

↓ The Commercials reduced their net short to -56,685 futures lots.

↓ Overall Open interest fell to 174,245 futures lots.

Certified Arabica stocks sat at 859,389 bags and Robusta at 51,500 MTs.

Currency & Macro Outlook

It was a mixed week for currency pairs, both GBP and EUR fell against the Dollar on Tuesday but gained some strength by the end of the week. Tensions in the Middle East, centred around Israel and Iran continue to be a driving factor.

History tells us that often in times of uncertainty people lean into the greenback, much like gold, as security measure. However, due to Trumps tariffs there is less certainty in the USD. Dovish comments from Trump about giving Iran a two week deadline before any strikes allowed the Euro gain on Friday. The Euro finished the week at 1.15 and the Pound at 1.34.

Coffee Market Report 16/06/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 9th June to Friday 13th June and was written by Tom Haigh.

Coffee Market

The week starting Monday 9th June had signs of being bullish, following a bearish week prior. Stocks are sitting at low levels, with certified stocks falling by a sizeable 61.5k bags the previous week. Announcements of stocks in Europe and Japan early in the week supported this sentiment. ECF Stocks remain low at 7.07m bags, 5m bags below the 5-year average and JCA Stocks sit at 2.21m, 500k bags below the 5-year average. 

Monday started timid, however, in comparison to the volatility of the previous trading day on Friday 6th. The market opened at 357.85 and closed just 3.7 points higher at 361.55. Tuesday 10th was a different story. On the week’s most volatile day, the market started rallying, reaching weekly highs in the 370s, before falling again and closing at 355.05. The spike was influenced by announcements of potential frosts over the following three days in Guaxupe and Pocos, Minas Gerais.  

From Wednesday onwards, the market fell into a downward trend, with the day’s market closing at 350.65, seemingly driven by a market failure to approach key target levels for the December terminal and no signs of frost in South Minas. Thursday was a similar story, as the market opened at 349.50 and closed at 347.80. There was a flurry of activity on Friday as the market tumbled to lows of 338 and triggered some roaster buying, before closing the week at 349.70. 

Origin

Central America has been benefiting from good rains during the growth season, with monthly forecasts looking drier towards the tail end. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service predicts an increase in production for most Central American origins for the 2025/26 harvest, aside from Costa Rica, whose production is forecast to decline.  

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in San José projects 2025/26 production at 1.17m bags, a decline of 10% from 2024/25. Last year’s harvest was up 12% from 2023/24, reaching 1.3m bags due to the biennial effect of the coffee production cycle. Heavy rainfall during the end of the year, particularly in November and December, has impacted the last two harvests. This period usually marks a shift towards the dry season, when we expect the rain to ease up or stop altogether. Although 2025 weather is forecast to be neutral, this could negatively affect production again.  

The USDA Coffee Annual also predicts a decrease for Colombia. The country’s coffee production is expected to fall by 5.3% to 12.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, which runs from Oct ’25 to Sep ’26.  

Colombian coffee production has been through a period of regeneration and recovery following the challenging El Niño season. This accelerated tree growth and created good soil conditions for younger production systems. The current high coffee prices, however, have started discouraging farmer investments in replanting and renovations, hindering production. The La Niña phenomenon is weakening, with a 75% chance of a return to neutral conditions in the second half of the year, but current heavy rainfall patterns are forecast to hurt flower maturation and coffee production, especially in the south of the country, as they move into the current harvest season. 

COT & Certified Stocks

↑ Arabica Certified Stock level: 846,291 bags
↓ Arabic pending grading: 77,961 bags, 45,425 bags less than last week

Currency & Macro Outlook

The fallout from Trump’s tariffs is being felt as global growth is set to see the slowest decade since the 1960s. The World Bank predicts global growth of 2.3% in 2025, 0.4% lower that was forecast in January. The OECD also downgraded its outlook, projecting global GDP growth to slow to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024. 

The USD appeared to have stalled the recent downtrend at the start of the week due to positive payrolls data. Talks between the US and China in London resulted in a trade deal, restoring a truce in the US-China trade war. On Thursday 12th the USD fell to a 3 year low over rising worries over trade and geopolitics, before rebounding later in the week.  

An uncertain start to the week for GBP due to a continued lack of data and an uptick in unemployment and weaker-than-expected wage growth in April. Unemployment rose from 4.5% to 4.6% in April, the highest since August 2021, and wage growth slowed from 5.5% to 5.2%. UK GDP shrank also 0.3% in April due to declining exports and reduced consumer spending. This is the steepest monthly drop since October 2023.  

Israel and Iran have entered a new chapter of conflict after Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Tehran on Friday 13th June. Iran is a major exporter of crude oil to China and India and oil prices surged by 10% immediately following the events. Speculators predict a further spike in prices should Iran’s assets or shipping channels be affected by the conflict.  

Coffee Market Report 09/06/2025

This report covers the period from Monday 2nd June to Friday 6th June and was written by Dave Rabbich.

Coffee Market

In the week starting 2nd June The New York Arabica market gained some of the ground it had lost over the preceding few weeks. Opening at 340.30 c/lb it found strength in lacking rainfall in the Minas Gerais region, and a strengthening Brazilian Real against the dollar, helping to discourage export selling. This enabled it to reach a weekly high of 376.40 c/lb before sharply pulling back late on Friday. This pullback was driven by strong exports from Vietnam and the news that the Brazilian harvest was progressing well, hitting 28% complete by the 4th June according to Safras and Mercado. Although this is only 1% higher than the 5 year average. The market closed 358.05 c/b, sitting pretty, back in that familiar 350-400 c/lb range.  

The London Robusta market broke its 6 day bearish run on Wednesday last week, after reaching its lowest value of 4,315 US$/MT since November 2024. According to the national statistics office of Vietnam Vietnamese coffee exports are up a huge 59% y/y. Rising temporarily, it suffered the same fate as Arabica and ended the week lower than it began after a heavy day on Friday. Closing the week at 4,440 US$/MT it seems a long way off the market highs of 5,800 US$/MT. 

COT & certified stocks

↓ The Non-commercials decreased their overall net long to 21,712 futures lots. 

↓The Commercials reduced their net short to -53,686 futures lots. 

Origin

Brazil’s forecasts for this year stand a 65.51 million bags. Arabica output is projected to drop sharply by 11%, reaching 40.46 million bags, while Robusta production is expected to rise 20%, totalling 25 million bags. Some agronomists have said that this could exceed forecasts and be larger than the 2022 harvest, with good quality as well, which could be a part of the reason that we see Robusta prices declining.   

Origins in Central and South America continue to struggle to offer Organic coffee as glyphosate minimum residue levels play havoc with containers entering the EU. Some organic farmers are situated near conventional farms and the wind can carry pesticide sprays across farm boundaries causing taints to be picked up during testing. Moreover, with the high market and rollover financial strains from last year, many coffee buyers and exporters at origin are reluctant to offer containers too far forward before they are confident they can secure the physical stock. Organic buyers may have to be patient and wait a few months before covering their needs.  

Currency & Macro Outlooks

The last week saw a fairly stable relationship between the GBPUSD and EURUSD under a lack of economic data coming out of the UK and the Eurozone. Holding at 1.35 and 1.14 respectively. The US employment report last week showed that employment is cooling off but not alarmingly so. This week a number of key updates will surely move the markets, UK employment figures on Tuesday, the Chancellors fiscal plans on Wednesday and April GDP on Thursday. Let’s wait and see but hopefully these numbers are positive and the greenback weakens in compassion.