Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!
This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.
Live Market Data
Coffee Market Report 09/06/2025
This report covers the period from Monday 9th June to Friday 13th June and was written by Tom Haigh.
Coffee Market
The week starting Monday 9th June had signs of being bullish, following a bearish week prior. Stocks are sitting at low levels, with certified stocks falling by a sizeable 61.5k bags the previous week. Announcements of stocks in Europe and Japan early in the week supported this sentiment. ECF Stocks remain low at 7.07m bags, 5m bags below the 5-year average and JCA Stocks sit at 2.21m, 500k bags below the 5-year average.
Monday started timid, however, in comparison to the volatility of the previous trading day on Friday 6th. The market opened at 357.85 and closed just 3.7 points higher at 361.55. Tuesday 10th was a different story. On the week’s most volatile day, the market started rallying, reaching weekly highs in the 370s, before falling again and closing at 355.05. The spike was influenced by announcements of potential frosts over the following three days in Guaxupe and Pocos, Minas Gerais.
From Wednesday onwards, the market fell into a downward trend, with the day’s market closing at 350.65, seemingly driven by a market failure to approach key target levels for the December terminal and no signs of frost in South Minas. Thursday was a similar story, as the market opened at 349.50 and closed at 347.80. There was a flurry of activity on Friday as the market tumbled to lows of 338 and triggered some roaster buying, before closing the week at 349.70.
Origin
Central America has been benefiting from good rains during the growth season, with monthly forecasts looking drier towards the tail end. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service predicts an increase in production for most Central American origins for the 2025/26 harvest, aside from Costa Rica, whose production is forecast to decline.
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in San José projects 2025/26 production at 1.17m bags, a decline of 10% from 2024/25. Last year’s harvest was up 12% from 2023/24, reaching 1.3m bags due to the biennial effect of the coffee production cycle. Heavy rainfall during the end of the year, particularly in November and December, has impacted the last two harvests. This period usually marks a shift towards the dry season, when we expect the rain to ease up or stop altogether. Although 2025 weather is forecast to be neutral, this could negatively affect production again.
The USDA Coffee Annual also predicts a decrease for Colombia. The country’s coffee production is expected to fall by 5.3% to 12.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, which runs from Oct ’25 to Sep ’26.
Colombian coffee production has been through a period of regeneration and recovery following the challenging El Niño season. This accelerated tree growth and created good soil conditions for younger production systems. The current high coffee prices, however, have started discouraging farmer investments in replanting and renovations, hindering production. The La Niña phenomenon is weakening, with a 75% chance of a return to neutral conditions in the second half of the year, but current heavy rainfall patterns are forecast to hurt flower maturation and coffee production, especially in the south of the country, as they move into the current harvest season.
COT & Certified Stocks
↑ Arabica Certified Stock level: 846,291 bags
↓ Arabic pending grading: 77,961 bags, 45,425 bags less than last week
Currency & Macro Outlook
DXY
The fallout from Trump’s tariffs is being felt as global growth is set to see the slowest decade since the 1960s. The World Bank predicts global growth of 2.3% in 2025, 0.4% lower that was forecast in January. The OECD also downgraded its outlook, projecting global GDP growth to slow to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.
The USD appeared to have stalled the recent downtrend at the start of the week due to positive payrolls data. Talks between the US and China in London resulted in a trade deal, restoring a truce in the US-China trade war. On Thursday 12th the USD fell to a 3 year low over rising worries over trade and geopolitics, before rebounding later in the week.
GBP/USD
An uncertain start to the week for GBP due to a continued lack of data and an uptick in unemployment and weaker-than-expected wage growth in April. Unemployment rose from 4.5% to 4.6% in April, the highest since August 2021, and wage growth slowed from 5.5% to 5.2%. UK GDP shrank also 0.3% in April due to declining exports and reduced consumer spending. This is the steepest monthly drop since October 2023.
Israel and Iran have entered a new chapter of conflict after Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Tehran on Friday 13th June. Iran is a major exporter of crude oil to China and India and oil prices surged by 10% immediately following the events. Speculators predict a further spike in prices should Iran’s assets or shipping channels be affected by the conflict.
Coffee Market Report 09/06/2025
This report covers the period from Monday 2nd June to Friday 6th June and was written by Dave Rabbich.
Coffee Market
In the week starting 2nd June The New York Arabica market gained some of the ground it had lost over the preceding few weeks. Opening at 340.30 c/lb it found strength in lacking rainfall in the Minas Gerais region, and a strengthening Brazilian Real against the dollar, helping to discourage export selling. This enabled it to reach a weekly high of 376.40 c/lb before sharply pulling back late on Friday. This pullback was driven by strong exports from Vietnam and the news that the Brazilian harvest was progressing well, hitting 28% complete by the 4th June according to Safras and Mercado. Although this is only 1% higher than the 5 year average. The market closed 358.05 c/b, sitting pretty, back in that familiar 350-400 c/lb range.
The London Robusta market broke its 6 day bearish run on Wednesday last week, after reaching its lowest value of 4,315 US$/MT since November 2024. According to the national statistics office of Vietnam Vietnamese coffee exports are up a huge 59% y/y. Rising temporarily, it suffered the same fate as Arabica and ended the week lower than it began after a heavy day on Friday. Closing the week at 4,440 US$/MT it seems a long way off the market highs of 5,800 US$/MT.
COT & certified stocks
↓ The Non-commercials decreased their overall net long to 21,712 futures lots.
↓The Commercials reduced their net short to -53,686 futures lots.
Origin
Brazil’s forecasts for this year stand a 65.51 million bags. Arabica output is projected to drop sharply by 11%, reaching 40.46 million bags, while Robusta production is expected to rise 20%, totalling 25 million bags. Some agronomists have said that this could exceed forecasts and be larger than the 2022 harvest, with good quality as well, which could be a part of the reason that we see Robusta prices declining.
Origins in Central and South America continue to struggle to offer Organic coffee as glyphosate minimum residue levels play havoc with containers entering the EU. Some organic farmers are situated near conventional farms and the wind can carry pesticide sprays across farm boundaries causing taints to be picked up during testing. Moreover, with the high market and rollover financial strains from last year, many coffee buyers and exporters at origin are reluctant to offer containers too far forward before they are confident they can secure the physical stock. Organic buyers may have to be patient and wait a few months before covering their needs.
Currency & Macro Outlooks
The last week saw a fairly stable relationship between the GBPUSD and EURUSD under a lack of economic data coming out of the UK and the Eurozone. Holding at 1.35 and 1.14 respectively. The US employment report last week showed that employment is cooling off but not alarmingly so. This week a number of key updates will surely move the markets, UK employment figures on Tuesday, the Chancellors fiscal plans on Wednesday and April GDP on Thursday. Let’s wait and see but hopefully these numbers are positive and the greenback weakens in compassion.
