June Market Report

Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 22nd June to Friday 26th June and was written by James Duncan and Jamie Treby.

Market Report

The market opened at 264 on the nose, a drop from the previous week’s close of 267.80, and initially continued this downwards momentum on promise of a drier week to aid the harvest in Brazil. Although the market reversed later in the day, closing 3 usc/lb higher than open, this was still 0.80 usc/lb below previous session’s close. Support for prices include dwindling coffee inventories, and concern over the effect El Niño may have on the rains needed for flowering in Sep/Oct, which in turn would affect next year’s yield.

Tuesday saw rains return to southern Brazil, pushing prices up to 279.80 usc/lb, the highest level for Sep-26 in over a month. Additionally supportive of prices, washed central/south American coffees remain difficult to source, with the recent strengthening of the Colombian Peso providing little incentive for selling there. Wednesday looked set to continue the rally, pushing through 280 in early trading, but ultimately closed just 1.25 usc/lb higher than Tuesday, at 277.20 usc/lb.

Thursday and Friday then looked to cap off the peak of the rally, with a failed attempt to break Wednesday’s highs (although the market did push above 280 for part of Thursday), with closing figures of 276.40 (-0.80) and 273.20 (-3.20) usc/lb respectively. The losses come on news of drier weather in Brazil the following week, allowing the harvest to resume. All in, the market closed 9.20 usc/lb higher than week open.

Currency & Macro

Talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland over the weekend (20th/21st) proved supportive for the dollar, with the US dollar index (DXY) jumping above 100. The dollar has regained some strength recently after the Federal Reserve’s tone seems to be more Hawkish than expected: cementing Fed independence in light of Donald Trump’s new appointee and providing inventive for investors to keep hold of USD.

Across the pond here in the UK, Prime Minister Kier Starmer announced his resignation on Monday morning, paving the way for a leadership contest in which Andy Burnham is currently uncontested. It seems the markets had already anticipated Starmer’s departure with little movement upon announcement. What will weigh on investors’ minds however, is if there will be a change in monetary policy under the new premiership. Burnham has yet to name any proposed cabinet members, but speculation on who may take the Chancellor’s role from Rachel Reeves is running rife. Policy and staff change could either calm or spook markets, and in the absence of anything concrete, the uncertainty is unlikely to add stability to the GBP.

Origin

Uganda used the 2026 World of Coffee in Brussels, held from 25 to 27 June, as a coordinated platform to reposition itself from a high volume exporter to a defined origin with a recognisable identity. Named as the event’s Portrait Country, it secured visibility across buyers, competitions, and trade engagement, while launching its first unified national coffee brand, “Uganda Coffee: It’s in Our Nature.” This was not a purely promotional exercise but a government-led initiative involving agricultural, diplomatic, and financial actors, signalling that coffee is being treated as a strategic export sector with long-term market development goals. Alongside this, Uganda is emphasising traceability, sustainability, and compliance with EU deforestation regulation, directly aligning its messaging with the requirements of its largest export market, which continues to take more than 60 percent of its coffee.

The timing reflects a period of strong export performance and growing confidence in the sector. Uganda has recently reported export growth of over 20 percent year on year in both volume and value, and the government is targeting a longer-term expansion towards 20 million bags annually. What is notable is that this scale ambition is being paired with a deliberate move into higher-value segmentation, particularly around Fine Robusta and improved Arabica positioning. Uganda’s messaging increasingly highlights its status as the historical home of Robusta, while simultaneously presenting it as a differentiated product rather than a bulk substitute. This suggests an attempt to reshape how buyers perceive Robusta within specialty and commercial blends, particularly as cost pressures and formulation shifts bring it back into focus.

The Board of Agriculture and Biosecurity in Hawaii has formally expanded the designated area for coffee berry borer (CBB) infestation to include the islands of Lānaʻi and Kauaʻi, with the designation taking effect on 24 June 2026. This follows earlier classifications of Hawaiʻi Island in 2010 and Oʻahu in 2015, and means that almost all islands with commercial coffee production in the state are now considered infested. The spread of Hypothenemus hampei into these additional islands reflects the continued difficulty in containing the pest once it becomes established, particularly within connected island production systems.

With this reclassification, regulatory controls have shifted from prevention to management. Restrictions on the interisland movement of green coffee beans, used bags, and harvesting equipment have been relaxed, meaning these can now move without permits or mandatory inspection, although they remain subject to random checks. Controls remain in place for higher-risk materials, with permits still required for the movement of coffee plants and propagative material, including seeds, to limit further spread.

Molokaʻi remains the only island not designated as infested. As a result, stricter biosecurity measures continue to apply to any movement of coffee-related materials to the island, including mandatory permits, disinfestation requirements, and quarantine periods for planting material. The overall shift suggests a transition from containment at the state level to a more localised approach focused on monitoring and limiting further spread into remaining unaffected areas.

The extension of the infestation highlights the ongoing difficulty of containing coffee berry borer once established, particularly in island systems where movement of plant material, equipment, or harvested coffee can enable its spread. With its presence now confirmed across more islands, management becomes less about exclusion and more focused on monitoring, containment, and ongoing pest control within existing production systems.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 15th June to Friday 19th June and was written by James Duncan and Jamie Treby.

Market Report

The week opened 252.40 usc/lb and pushed above 260 for the first time in two weeks, closing the day just under at 259.20 usc/lb. The previous week’s COT report showed that managed money has flipped to net long – signalling profit taking and driving the market up. Momentum buying fuelled further rises as the market pushed above 270 on Tuesday, closing out at 272.80 usc/lb.

Weather patterns in Brazil provided some fundamental support to the market this week also. Rains have been reported in many coffee growing regions, delaying the harvest and reducing the yield as some dried cherries on the tree can be knocked off during such events. Diverging reports on frost risk in Brazil also impacted the market this week, with the European model predicting lows of 3 overnight in South Minas Gerais region, and the American model forecasting lows of 15. All of this combined provided plenty of catalyst in a rising market.

Thursday provided some relief for the frost scare, pushing the market back below 270 before short covering brought us back to near open. Friday saw a large range of 13.10 usc/lb as the week’s momentum faced off against a stronger dollar and forecasts of a dry week in Brazil allowing the harvest to continue. The bears ultimately won out, with Thursday closing the week at 267.80 usc/lb, down 4.10 usc/lb for the day but up 14.70 usc/b for the week. Friday was closed for Juneteenth bank holiday in the US.

Currency & Macro

Although the news cycle has been dominated by the US-Iran war recently, we have several other high profile economic events that happened this week (as well as an obligatory update on US-Iran conflict).

Firstly, in the US, the Fed voted 12-0 to maintain interest rates in the 3.5 – 3.75% range on Wednesday. Although widely expected under Trump’s new appointee Kevin Warsh, perhaps less expected were the minutes from the meeting where the tone was more hawkish than anticipated. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) jumped above 100 for the first time since April.

Another key event was the announcement of a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict for good. Teased earlier in the week, more details were released publicly towards the end of the week. Included in the deal was a full reopening of the strait of Hormuz, easing international shipping and bringing oil prices back down.

In the UK, the Bank of England voted on Thursday to hold interest rates at 3.75%, following promising inflation data for May, but this didn’t stop 2 board members voting for an increase of 0.25%. Analysts expect a hike to 4% before the end of the year, with some anticipating a hike by the end of summer, once the full effect of the US-Iran war is realised in prices.

Elsewhere in the UK, (now ex) Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, paving the way for him to challenge the Labour leadership, Kier Starmer. At time of writing, Kier Starmer has announced his resignation, looking to step down by the end of summer. In the last 10 years, we have now seen 6 Prime Ministers (soon to be 7) which would put the UK behind only Bulgaria and Romania for the most premiership changes in Europe this decade.

The announcement comes 1 day before the 10^th anniversary of the Brexit vote which led David Cameron to resign as PM. Marking the milestone, a number of analysts tried to look at the economic effect of Brexit, with many respected institutions putting the UK between 4 and 8% worse off as a result.

The GBP/USD pair started the week trading just above 1.3400 and finished the week just shy of 1.3250. The EUR/USD pair started just above 1.1600 and closed the week around 1.1475.

Origin

Brazil has experienced three days of rain that are causing issues with coffee quality and halting harvesting. This impacts not only the prices as mentioned above, but the increased moisture raises  humidity, increasing the chance of diseases at a time when it is harder to combat them due to picking and fungicides cannot be applied, as well as presenting more challenging fermentation conditions.  Ripe cherry knocked to the ground will still be used, although it often results in a lower grade, changing the market and therefore, price.

More rain is predicted, but no flowering has yet been talked about. This is likely to be a hot topic at Europe’s World of Coffee show in Brussels this week.

Colombia’s initial round of election as resulted in the Trump backed right wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella taking the lead. He won the first round of elections narrowly, on the 31^st May, with the second round on the 21^st June also placing him narrowly in font with just under 50% at time of writing compared to 48.7% for Cepeda, his left-wing candidate. The election has been highly polarised.

For farmers, there is a concern that a change in policy may threaten the peasant reserve zones known as ZRC’s, which were established by the old government as a way of stabilising farmers livelihoods whilst addressing deforestation and the biodiversity needs of the Amazon. This legitimised some production in unison with creating protected conservation areas, allowing a route out of coca production whilst improving sustainability.

A return to violence could endanger these areas or introduce instability in areas that were already heavily affected by the last conflict. Cepeda is seen as likely to continue in the old governments path which has increased land rights but not security, with guerillas still operating in the area having failed to be controlled.

On top of this, it has been reported Espriella is looking to withdraw Colombia from the UN, and explore the use of fracking, as well as supporting an extensive livestock model that is perceived to benefit the large landowners and put at risk exports through deforestation driven by the cattle.

Kenya. Kiambu’s smallholder agricultural base is undergoing a structural shift driven by land fragmentation and rising population pressure. Historically, cash crops such as coffee have operated within volume-based models that depend on cooperative systems, central processing, and external price discovery. As average farm sizes decline, these systems are becoming harder to sustain profitably at the household level, particularly where input costs and labour requirements remain relatively fixed while output scales down.

In response, a growing number of producers are reallocating land towards higher value crops, particularly herbs and spices. These crops offer stronger returns per hectare, shorter production cycles, and greater flexibility in how value is captured. Unlike coffee, which is typically sold as a raw or centrally processed commodity, herbs and spices allow for on-farm or localised processing, including drying and packaging. This enables producers to participate further along the value chain and reduces dependence on cooperative structures and international pricing mechanisms.

This transition reflects a broader reorientation of smallholder systems away from bulk commodity production towards diversified, market-responsive agriculture. Agroecological practices are being integrated to support this shift, with a focus on soil health, intercropping, and reduced reliance on external inputs. For coffee, the implication is not immediate displacement but gradual competition for land and labour, particularly in areas where farm sizes are no longer sufficient to sustain a single-crop model.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 8th June to Friday 12th June and was written by James Duncan and Jamie Treby.

Market Report

This week saw KCU26 (Sep) overtake KCN26 (Jul) in both open interest and volume. As such, we will now be reporting on September terminal month unless otherwise stated.

Monday opened at 242.00 usc/lb and pushed towards 246 in the first hours before slowly falling back and closing out just 0.35 usc/lb below open. Tuesday also struggled to find direction – trading either side of open (238-245), also closing <1 usc/lb below open at 240.90 usc/lb. Concerns about rains in Brazil delaying the ongoing harvest managed to break through the stalemate on Wednesday, with the last three trading days pushing higher: posting closes of 244.60 (+3.70), 250.25 (+5.65), and 253.40 (+3.15) usc/lb respectively.

The Jul/Sep switch has also been active this week as commercials and non-commercials alike look to square their position before First Notice Day (22^nd June).

Currency & Macro

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD pair traded within familiar ranges in early week trading, keeping within 1.3325 – 1.3400 and 1.1500 – 1.1575 respectively. In the US, inflation data for April showed a relatively high 3.8 – 4.1% leading many to expect Fed rates to remain held despite Trump’s new appointee (Kevin Warsh) who has typically held a more dovish stance. The ECB this week announced a 0.25% base rate hike, citing inflation caused by the Iran conflict. This was coupled with an increased inflation and a downgraded growth forecast. The UK lacked any major economic reports during this period, with currency largely trading on global trends. Friday saw a softening of the dollar on yet more reports that a US-Iran deal was close. A familiar story, which has failed to materialise on several occasions leading to volatility in commodities and currencies alike. Should the ceasefire hold and an end to conflict be solidified, we should expect oil prices to fall, and more risky currencies (such as GBP and EUR) see a bump against the USD.

Origin

Mexico expects a small growth in production with a recent FAS report highlighting the support pricing is giving for investment. This appears to be driven by a growth in robusta production with ambiguous figures for arabica showing relatively flat expectations, though improved management practises are credited with some growth.

ICO data showed pricing in March 2026 remaining at 40% above the 10-year average, facilitating purchases of newer, rust resistant varietals, accommodating denser planting too. These rust resistant varieties of Arabica have not come to full fruition yet, but following years of the fungal disease, are expected to lay a firm foundation for a more productive sector. Combined with the better management practises and denser planting, they are expected to increase yields without expanding planted areas.

Chiapas is expected to remain the top producing state by volume, though Puebla is the state that produces the highest yields following its investment in these varietals, combined with better infrastructure and more favourable soils.  Veracruz will remain the second highest yielding state with an increase in harvested area of robusta due to the lands recovery from damage received by heavy rains of 2025. This small growth is not expected to translate to exports, with internal consumption pegged to expand, and exports expected to dip 1%.

A recent study published by Technoserve highlighted Peru’s risk from exposure to both negative sides of the climate volatility, heat stress and excess rainfall. Rising temperatures are expected to exceed suitable levels for coffee production, although Junin region is expected to dip below the sustainable threshold in opposition. Excessive rainfall is also expected to compound the pressure on coffee producing systems, leading to a higher vulnerability short term risk exposure worsening in the medium to long term.

It sits in the highest grouping for excessive rainfall impacts alongside Colombia and Indonesia, the latter itself experiencing damaging floods and landslides at the end of 2025. Although climate change might leap to mind first, the risk is attributed more to the lack of perceived resilience on the farms. Agroforestry and soil conservation tend to have lower adoption figures, and combined with the reliance on coffee as primary source of income, meaning any impacts are more meaningfully felt

This rating is tempered by a stronger adaptive capacity. Peru is more comparable to Brazil than to fragile East African systems. It can absorb investment, scale interventions, and deliver measurable outcomes. Peru’s future supply curve will be determined less by climate itself, and more by whether the sector can convert adaptive capacity into actual on-farm change within the next 10–15 years.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 1st June to Friday 5th June and was written by James Duncan and Jamie Treby.

Coffee Market

The market opened at 265.85 usc/lb on Monday, 1 June, following a sharp decline on the previous Friday. Hailstorm reports in Brazil briefly lifted prices towards 270, but with damage appearing limited, the market fell to 260.60 usc/lb at close. Tuesday traded within a 3 usc/lb range, closing just 1.5 usc/lb lower than open at 259.20 usc/lb. Momentum picked back up later in the week with Wednesday and Thursday closing at 253.10 usc/lb and 247.15 usc/lb respectively – before finishing the week at 246.50 usc/lb.

Downwards pressure was applied this week by both the Brazil crop predictions (see ‘Origin’ below) and the strengthening of the DXY, specifically in relation to USD/BRL currency pair, further encouraging origin selling.

Currency & Macro

Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs traded fairly range bound for most of the week. The GBP/USD pair remained stable between 1.3400 -1.3475 while EUR/USD traded between 1.1600 and 1.1650. Friday saw both pairs break the range and fall to 1.3350 and 1.1525 respectively on a slew of economic data for May, including payroll and unemployment. The ongoing US-Iran conflict coupled with Israel’s skirmishes weighs on international markets, with safe-haven currencies and net oil exporting nations faring better.

Origin

Brazil’s 26/27 crop is predicted to hit a record of 71.9 million bags, according to the USDA. This is a 14% increase on the current crop 25/26, and higher even than the bumper 20/21 crop. There are a range of estimates currently at play, with CONAB sitting at the lower end with 66.7 million bags. Private sector players are estimating a bigger crop, with several companies predicting the crop to be between 75 and 76 million bags. USDA are predicting the Arabica crop to increase 25% year on year. On the other hand, the Robusta crop is expected to decrease year on year, estimated to be 24.4 million bags, compared to 25 million bags. Whilst lower than 25/26, it is not a concerningly low number. The strong growth of 25/26 harvest is difficult for crops to sustain.

Eyes are on the potential super El Nino, and the impact it may have on the 26/27. Usually, El Nino brings warmer temperatures to Brazil. This reduces the likelihood of a frost event, which is positive. However, if higher than usual temperatures are sustained during the flowering and grain development stages, this could negatively impact the yield.

Colombia went to the polls on 31st May for the first round of voting in their general election. In the Colombian system there are two rounds of voting, the first is open to many candidates and parties, the second is held between the two candidates who received the highest number of votes in the first round. The incumbent president, Gustavo Petro, is barred from running for another term, so there will be a new president in Colombia after the second round of voting on 21st June. The two candidates who are going head to head in the next round are Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing independent, and Ivan Cepeda of the left-wing Pacto Historico party, who are currently in power. Espriella won more votes than Cepeda in the first round, but opinion polls are divided on who is likely to win the second round. Whichever candidate wins, there is likely to be some backlash and protests in Colombia this summer.

In other news in Colombia, the USDA has forecast that the 26/27 harvest will see an increase in production of 7.2% compared to 25/26, with an expected total of 13.4 million bags. This increase is expected, in part, to the expected arrival of El Nino, which will likely bring dry, favourable conditions to Colombia. The soil in Colombia generally has good moisture retention, meaning coffee plants are more able to withstand the higher temperatures and lower rainfall than in other origins.

In Costa Rica, however, the potential impact of El Nino, is less favourable. USDA is predicting the 26/27 harvest in Costa Rica to increase by 3.5% to 1.2 million bags. Whilst the increase seems positive, 26/27 is the ‘on’ year of the biennial coffee production cycle, which would usually see a more significant increase against the ‘off’ year. The dry weather predicted with El Nino, higher cost of production linked to increased fertiliser prices and the strengthening of the Colon against the US Dollar, meaning lower income for farmers selling their coffee, all negatively impact the crop predictions.