July Market Report

Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 6th July to Friday 10th July and was written by James Duncan and Jamie Treby.

The market opened at 301.00 usc/lb on Monday 6th July following what had already been viewed as a volatile end to the previous week. However, Monday completely eclipsed those swings, with the market trading in a 56.80 usc/lb range (300.20–357.00) before closing at 349.95 usc/lb: +48.75 usc/lb (+16.19%) on the previous day’s close. 

While several supportive fundamentals remain in place; including rain in Brazil, tight availability of Central and South American washed coffees, and historically low certified stocks; none appear sufficient to justify a near-50 usc/lb move in a single session. Brazil’s crop is still expected to be a record volume, Central/South American washed coffee availability should improve as their respective harvests come around (even if volume is hampered by El Niño), and low certified stocks are more typically a source of longer-term support than a catalyst for such an abrupt rally. 

Instead, the speed and magnitude of the rally suggest significant non-commercial trading, with momentum-driven buying feeding on itself and pushing prices sharply higher. Some market commentators have even gone so far as to compare coffee’s behaviour on Monday to that of a meme stock. 

After Monday’s meteoric rise, it seemed all but inevitable (at least with the benefit of hindsight!) that it would crumble in the next session. Technical analysis showing that the market was heavily overbought, and profit taking provided downwards pressure, driving the market down 32.35 usc/lb. Wednesday continued the trend, posting the smallest trading range of the week at 17.70 usc/lb, which out of context would dwarf most other week’s ranges, and closing 7.80 usc/lb lower at 309.80 usc/lb. 

Thursday reversed direction again and posted gains of 38.10 usc/lb vs Wednesday, highlighting the volatility in the coffee market this week. After ICE raised their initial margin requirements, liquidity has dried up, amplifying what would have otherwise been a lesser shift in sentiment. Friday confirmed this, with yet another reversal taking us 29.3 usc/lb lower than Thursday, before picking back up in the afternoon to close the week at 334.25 usc/lb. Up 33.25 usc/lb for the week, with the weekly range being entirely captured on Monday alone (56.80 usc/lb).  

Currency & Macro

Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pair traded mostly range bound this week. GBP/USD showed a little more movement between 1.3325 and 1.3450, while EUR/USD stuck between 1.1400 and 1.1460. This was reflected in the US Dollar Inedx (DXY) which moved between 100.60 and 101.20 during the week.

Currently, the main drivers of these currency pairs seem to be central bank policy, with inflation rates in the US driving a more hawkish tone from the Fed. Across the pond, the BoE is weighing up inflation vs a slowing economy. Inflation figures have moved closer to the 2% target in recent month, but fears of a delayed onset of the US-Iran conflict have kept the BoE cautious. In the Eurozone, mixed economic data is cause for concern despite lower inflation data, with the ECB previously considered likely to drop rates. Investors are likely waiting for large economic or macro events before the GBP/USD or EUR/USD make movements one way or the other. 

Origin

Ethiopia’s recently launched national coffee initiative is aiming at doubling domestic production and boosting annual export revenues to US$6billion over the next 5 years, it has been reported. The 2025/26 fiscal year set a new record at over US$3billion and cements coffee as the leading agricultural export and largest source of foreign exchange.

The strategy, which was announced by the Agriculture Minister Addisu Arega is focussing on increasing productivity from 9 quintals per hectare 21 quintals, focussing on improved and disease resistant varietals as well as agricultural research and climate resilience. Alongside this, extension services and support systems will be enhanced, and an emphasis put on improving coffee quality. This is anticipated to both raise the income for Ethiopia’s millions of smallholder farmers as well as increasing export volumes.

This comes on the back of new investment in expanding the Addis Ababa – Djibouti railway, linking it with agro-processing zones, industrial parks and free trade zones. This expands Ethiopia’s main export corridor through Chinese investment of the expansion within Ethiopia, and the Ethiopia-Djibouti Joint Railway Commission’s agreement to directly connect key strategic ports by the end of November 2026.

Costa Rica is preparing for the second leg of their elections for ICAFE’s Board of Directors. The first round of elections, for Producer representatives were conducted on the 19th of June, with the second round of elections on the 24th July set for the industrial sector representatives.

More than 25,000 registered coffee producers were eligible to vote across Costa Rica’s seven coffee-growing regions. Their task was to elect seven producer representatives to ICAFE’s Board of Directors and 45 delegates to the National Coffee Congress for the 2026 to 2030 term. For Costa Rica, and ICAFE, the producer side of the industry has now chosen who will represent farm-level interests for the next four years.

The industrial sectors, which cover beneficiadores (processors/mills), exporters and roasters, elect their own representatives to both the ICAFE Board and the National Coffee Congress. According to ICAFE’s election circular, the industrial vote will fill the seats reserved for those sectors, including one principal and one alternate board member from each industrial group, together with their allocations of congressional delegates.

This structure is important because it reflects how Costa Rica’s coffee law is designed. Governance is shared across the value chain rather than being controlled exclusively by farmers, exporters or the government. Producers elect producer representatives, processors elect processor representatives, exporters elect exporter representatives and roasters elect roaster representatives. The resulting Board includes representatives from each sector alongside government participation. This means that decisions affecting pricing mechanisms, regulation, research, promotion, quality standards and industry policy must be debated across competing interests within the same institutional framework.

Given that mills occupy a central position between growers and exporters, the July election will provide an indication of how processing and commercial interests want the industry governed during the 2026 to 2030 period.

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 29th June to Friday 3rd July and was written by James Duncan and Jamie Treby.

Market Report

The market opened on 29th June at 272.40 usc/lb, continuing the slight downwards trend of the previous week dipping as low as 268.80 usc/lb before a reversal of +10 usc/lb, closing at 277.80 usc/lb. The key drivers are lack of central/south American washed coffees (sometimes referred to as ‘milds’) and heavy rains in Brazil, further delaying the harvest with reports of producers ceasing to offer some qualities until the picture is clearer. Fuelled by speculation of a worsening harvest and a ‘Mega’ El Niño, Tuesday 30th June saw one of the largest rallies in recent times, with a high of 302.75 usc/lb and a range of 25.35; the market cooled off only slightly to close at 296.45 usc/lb.

Wednesday 1st July opened higher at 299, but spent most of the day in the red – dipping as low as 293.10 usc/lb. A late market rally pushed the price above 300 again, at which point the brakes were off and momentum buying took over to drive it all the way up to 316.40 usc/lb, before again cooling back before close to 309.90 usc/lb. The market reversed on Thursday, after heavy profit taking off the back of the rally. Although it didn’t quite manage to break below 300 (daily low of 300.05 usc/lb), it did close the week out at 301.20. This was 8.70 usc/lb lower than Wednesday’s close, but up 28.8 usc/lb on week open.

The Arabica market was closed on Friday 3rd July in anticipation of Independence Day bank holiday in the US.

Currency & Macro

Compared to the week prior, 29th June – 3rd July proved a relatively stable week for economic news and events. Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pair traded mostly range bound between 1.320 – 1.335 and 1.137 – 1.145 respectively. The USD index (DXY) reflected this as well – trading early week around 101.25 before dipping below 101.00 on 2nd July.

This was mainly due to nonfarm payroll data being released in the US employment report, showing poorer than anticipated numbers. Payrolls for previous months were also revised down in light of new data, further adding to the depreciation.

Origin

Whilst concerns remain over the Brazil crop situation with rainfall, Indian coffee as shown in the April – June quarter (Q1FY27) was reporting strong growth driven by Robusta sales to European purchasers, West Asia and the US. Sales were up 28% in volume, attributed to competitive pricing, though Ramesh Rajah, president of the Coffee Exporters Association, was quoted as saying it would have been higher were it not for the issues in Iran. These caused logistical disruptions in the period reported.

A cautionary note though, as an anticipated weak southwest monsoon in key producing states is leading expectations of lower yields and some quality issues. In particular, Karnataka and Kerala saw lower rainfall in June, with between a 29% – 45% deficit, slowing development at a key phase and increasing pest pressures on both Arabica and Robusta crops. In particular, white stem borer is viewed a risk within the Arabica crops.

Adding to this, there is a fear that when the rains do come, they may be intense, and so damage plants that flowered in January and February, knocking young cherries to the ground. In a not-quite-similar story to Brazil, these young cherries are not harvestable at a slight lowering in cup quality, and would represent a yield loss.

Bolivia‘s coffee sector continues to build momentum around quality and long-term farm resilience, trends reflected by the growth of the Specialty Coffee Expo Bolivia. Running between July 2nd and the 5th this year, it has expanded its footprint and international participation. While the event itself is not necessarily a market-moving development, its continued growth highlights the industry’s determination to strengthen Bolivia’s position within the global specialty coffee market and attract greater international engagement.

This focus on quality in some sectors has been accompanied in recent years by increased attention to regenerative and climate-resilient production systems. Across coffee-growing regions, producers are adapting farm management practices, varietal selection and production strategies to changing environmental conditions, reflecting a broader industry shift towards resilience rather than simple volume growth.

This is far from universal though, as a conflicting report talks about the intensification of specialty production shifting away from agroforestry systems to a full sun monoculture. Their view was that the structure of coffee value chains has a greater impact on farmer profitability than coffee quality alone.

Bolivia’s coffee sector continues to operate against a challenging economic backdrop. Fuel shortages, transport disruptions and wider economic instability have created additional pressure on agricultural supply chains, while access to affordable financing remains a persistent challenge for many producers and cooperatives. These issues are particularly significant in a landlocked origin where logistics already represent an important cost component.

Nevertheless, there are reasons for cautious optimism. If investment continues in export promotion, producer support mechanisms and specialty coffee market development it would suggest that the sector remains focused on long-term growth rather than short-term volatility. Bolivia appears to be positioning to compete through quality and producer expertise, though resilient production systems, and broader economic challenges remain part of the operating environment.