January Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report 02/02/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 26th January to Friday 30th January and was written by Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

The market opened on Monday, 26^th Jan at 351.55 usc/lb off the back of a very slight rally from the previous week. This momentum continued into the early part of the week, closing 5.35 usc/lb up on Monday and a whopping 11 usc/lb up on Tuesday. This drive has been attributed in part to the strengthening of the BRL against the USD, which discourages exports, as well as below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais (Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region). Origin selling did pick up during the rally but was not enough to cap the rally as it pushed past the psychological and technical 360 usc/lb mark. This triggered a melange of short covering, option strikes and momentum buying, all of which were conducive to the runaway effect experienced on Tuesday, which closed at 367.25 usc/lb.

Although the market made initial gains on Wednesday off the back of Tuesday’s rally and certified stocks report (released after market close), it only briefly flirted with the 370 usc/lb mark before coming tumbling down after the first hour of trading; closing out 16.25 usc/lb lower, and below Monday’s open at 351 usc/lb on the nose.

Thursday and Friday saw a continuation of the bearish trend with market opening at 351.55 usc/lb on Thursday and closing at 345.50 usc/lb. On Friday opening at 344.50 usc/lb and closing at 332.25 usc/lb. Ending the week 19.30 usc/lb below Monday’s open. This marks a 5.5-month low for the C Market. Steady rains in coffee-producing regions are forecast over the next week, which is good news for the size of the upcoming crop, but is a bearish factor in relation to the market. In addition, the increasing certified stocks are also a factor in pushing prices lower. Certified inventories were at a near-2-year low of 398,645 bags in November 2025, but have already recovered to 461,829 bags as of 14th January this year.

Origin

In the port of Santos, Brazil, a bottleneck of congestion has formed. The bottleneck reflects ‘the exhaustion of port infrastructure, especially for containerised cargo’, according to Cecafe. Exporters are expected to have suffered losses of R$ 66.1 million ($12.56 million US) to cover additional storage expenses and penalties for delays, among other costs. A survey by Cecafe found that 55% of shipments from Brazil experienced delays or schedule changes each month. This is felt across Brazilian ports, but in Santos most keenly, as a huge 78.7% of Brazilian coffee goes through this port alone. Cecafe recommends that the government invest heavily in upgrading port infrastructure to manage export flows.

Ugandan general elections were held on 15^th January. The incumbent president, Yoweri Museveni, won by a landslide with over 70% of the vote. This will mark the seventh presidential term for the 81-year-old Museveni, who has ruled Uganda for 40 years. During his tenure, he has changed legislation to remove the age limit on running for president, as well as removing the limit on the number of terms a president can serve. The leader of the opposition, Bobi Wine, condemned the ‘fake results’ and has alleged that he has fled his home to avoid arrest. In the lead-up to the election, the opposition faced repression, and the internet was shut down by the administration. Whilst Uganda does hold regular elections, it is still considered ‘not free’ by rights monitor Freedom House, as they do not consider the elections credible.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

After a period of USD uncertainty, the dollar index (DXY) rallied on Friday +0.79% after President Trump nominated Keven Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh is considered more hawkish than other candidates. Moreover, Trump reached a tentative deal on Thursday, 29th January with Senate Democrats, which hopefully will avoid a government shutdown, also supporting the USD. This deal would fund the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks to allow more time for talks on immigration enforcement and would provide full-year funding for other government agencies. Historically, the US Dollar has been considered a safe haven in times of global economic uncertainty. However, in recent months, much of the global uncertainty and volatility has been driven by the US, prompting investors to look elsewhere.

Coffee Market Report 26/01/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 19th January to Friday 23rd January and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

With the market closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, the trading week for Arabica began on Tuesday last week. Initially testing 355 usc/lb on the upside, this was quickly reversed with the market breaking through and closing below the 350 usc/lb mark for the first time this month (2^nd Jan did open below 350 but closed up). This continued the overall downwards trend from the 8^th of January, with origin selling providing most of the movement. This continued into the opening hours of Wednesday 21^st before commercials, capitalising on the dip, along with speculative short covering, pushed the market back up – closing just 1 usc/lb higher than open at 347.50 usc/lb. This momentum continued through the rest of the week, with modest gains posted on Thursday and Friday amid a slump in the DXY – but was somewhat limited on the upside by origin fixations.

More attention is being paid to the Mar/May spread now, with a decrease of over 6 usc/lb from the lofty highs of 22.65 usc/lb back in early Jan, implying that there is now greater liquidity. As we move towards February, we expect to see a much higher volume of rolls occurring as we still see a lot of open interest against Mar-26.

Origin

Sierra Nevada in Colombia, and the indigenous communities who live there, face a growing threat from the growing unrest in the country. Paramilitaries, guerrilla groups (such as FARC) and drug traffickers have started to infiltrate their lands, wanting to use them as trafficking corridors.

Sierra Nevada is a mountain close to the Caribbean coast of Colombia and is a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of Man and Humanity, recognised as the most irreplaceable ecosystem on the planet. Yet its location and limited state presence make it an attractive area for traffickers to operate.

Many of the indigenous groups have lived in Sierra Nevada for thousands of years and their cultures are heavily tied to the land they live on. Throughout history, they have faced many challenges and persecutions that have threatened their survival. Now they are facing new violence and restrictions. In some areas, guerrilla groups have imposed curfews or are forcing people to leave their land, as well as forcing children to join their ranks to help them gain control of the area.

Figures are in from Cecafe for Brazilian coffee exports in 2025. Exports totalled 40.05 million bags, a 20.8% reduction compared to the 50.58 million bags exported in 2024. Whilst this initially seems drastic, 2024 was an unprecedented year for Brazilian coffee exports, and 2025 exports still exceed the average over the last three years, which is 40 million bags. It is worth noting that these figures cover all coffee: green, roasted, soluble. Regarding green coffee in particular, exports fell by 21.8%, largely in line with the overall figures. President Trump’s tariffs on Brazil from August to November had a significant impact too. Despite being lifted in December, exports to the US fell by 52.5% in December 2025, compared to the same month in 2024.

China is a growing coffee market, both as a producer and a consumer. They are now one of the largest coffee consuming countries, according to figures USDA have released recently, in 2024 Chinese consumption was 6 million bags, even higher than the likes of Italy, who consumed 5.5 million bags the same year. The growth in Chinese consumption is particularly impressive, considering that in 2010 it stood at just 2 million bags. However, whilst overall consumption has grown significantly, per capita consumption is still very low, averaging just 22 cups in 2024. With a population of 1.4 billion, they are certainly one to watch. During 2025, the Chinese dropped their tariffs on importing African coffee, and have since become one of the world’s largest importers of Ethiopian coffee. A potential game changer as the US, the world’s biggest consumer of coffee, becomes more insular and difficult to export coffee to. China are also a producer of coffee, and production is growing. Although at 130,000 bags in 2024, their national production falls far short of their national demand.

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The USD took a dive towards the end of last week as the DXY dipped below 97.5 for the first time since September 2025. Many blame last week’s ‘Greenland crisis’ with Donald Trump threatening to the self-autonomous territory by any means, before rapidly backing off after meeting with NATO members at Davos last week.

Coffee Market Report 19/01/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 12th January, 2026 to Friday 16th January, 2026 and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market

Last week began slowly with little volume traded, and a small intraday range. Opening the week at 357.60 usc/lb, the market pushed below the 20-day moving average but ultimately closed 1.60 usc/lb lower at 356.05 usc/lb. Responding to Monday’s lack of ability to capitalise on the previous week’s downwards momentum, Arabica futures traded higher on Tuesday, opening higher than even Monday’s open and pushing into the 360’s. This was then reversed on Wednesday, again on Thursday, and on Friday.

This repeated oscillation over the course of the week highlights the local equilibrium we are experiencing, as updated forecasts in Brazil eased concerns in the region while shrinking ICE inventories provided resistance. In the absence of any large news last week, the market seems happy to consolidate in the 355 – 365 usc/lb range for now.

Origin

Reports of the 2026/7 crop in Brazil are currently positive. The key regions have had favourable enough weather conditions, plus it is the “on” year of the Brazilian biennial cycle. Current estimates suggest that the crop will be around 70 million bags total (Arabica and Robusta). However, it is still very early to be making such estimates and more reliable predictions are expected around the end of March. On top of this, CEPEA, a Brazilian research institute, are predicting that we are likely to continue to see high volatility in Brazilian pricing and the NY coffee market. Whilst these higher volume estimates for the next crop would usually see the market come off, as there will be more coffee available, certified stocks and reserves are currently very low, thus keeping volatility high.

In Myanmar, investment in Robusta is underway. The Yangon Region Department of Agriculture has planned to plant 20,000 acres of Robusta over a five year period starting in 2026. Until now Robusta has been grown more experimentally in the region. The department has plans for 40,000 acres of land in Yangon to be cultivated. With around 50% to be used for Robusta cultivation. Other crops that are to be planted are mango, durian, rubber and pomelo, amongst others. The land where these crops are to be cultivated has previously been used as paddy fields and to grow crops such as pulses. Current coffee production in Myanmar is mostly focused in Mandalay and Shan states where Arabica is grown due to the higher altitude. Yangon is lower altitude, hence the focus on planting Robusta moving forwards.

Figures for Uganda’s coffee exports have just been released for October 2025 in the Ministry of Agriculture’s monthly report, and they tell an impressive tale. Over a twelve-month period (November 2024-October 2025), Ugandan coffee totaled 8.4 million bags, compared to 5.8 million bags in the previous twelve months, a staggering 45% increase year on year. The value of exports has also risen, from a value of 1.3 billion USD to a value of 2.4 billion USD, an increase of over 75% year on year. The increase in value can be attributed to the global increase in the price, and therefore value, of coffee. This is likely linked to the increased volumes exported as well, as the higher value of coffee makes it a more attractive export, and so is more likely to be exported than traded on the domestic market.  Volume and value of exports have increased across both Arabica and Robusta.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The GBP/USD pair dropped last week after the release of strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday. Increasing geopolitical uncertainty, mainly driven by the unprecedented move by US President Donald Trump to press tariffs on European allies if they oppose the annexation of Greenland, has caused a stir in the market as investors rush to ‘safe’ assets. Although not excluded from this list, the US dollar has been favoured less of late, while the Swiss Franc (CHF) and metals such as gold saw gains.

Inflation in the Eurozone fell to 1.9% in December, coming in below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since May, further reinforcing the view that interest rates will be held. Further economic data from the UK and the EU are due this week which are expected to sway markets one way or another, but the Supreme Court’s decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, as well as the world economic forum which is due to be attended by an apparently inflamed Trump, loom over the week’s headlines.

Coffee Market Report 12/01/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 5th January, 2026 to Friday 9th January, 2026 and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market

The holiday period came to a definitive end on Monday 5^th Jan as market volume picked back up on both the Arabica and Robust markets. Origin had remained active in the market over Christmas and New Years as many origins’ harvests are in full swing, applying downward pressure during this period. Speculators re-entering the market this week helped drive this, with the market climbing 16.50 usc/lb in the first two sessions. Showing signs of fatigue by Wednesday, the market closed higher again, but almost 7.5 usc/lb lower than the intraday high.

Thursday tried and failed to break the 385 usc/lb barrier, capped off as origin selling picked up in light of a high market and strong dollar. News of rains this week in Brazil eased concerns which, along with the DXY reaching a 4-week high, led to a sell-off on Friday 9^th and closing 14.70 usc/lb down. While the week opened at 354.55 usc/lb and hit 383.85 usc/lb at it’s highest (an increase of 29.3 usc/lb), we closed out the week a mere 3.10 usc/lb higher at 357.65 usc/lb.

Origin

Political instability in South America following the US’s actions in Venezuela, has made many nervous for the knock-on implications on the continent.  There are fears that Colombia, too, is at risk of unsolicited interference, whether that be economic, political or military. The uncertainty of what that could mean for Colombia has had an impact on driving up coffee prices, according to a report by Rabobank.

Both President Petro of Colombia and President Lula of Brazil have criticised what has unfolded in Venezuela. Lula’s criticism in particular has raised concerns over the relationship between the US and Brazil, which has been particularly choppy over the last year and had significant implications on the price of coffee. There has also been below-average rainfall in key coffee-growing regions in Brazil. This has the potential to harm volumes of the next crop.

In Venezuela, there is some hope for a revival of their agricultural industry following the removal of President Maduro. In the 19^th century the country was one of the biggest producers of coffee in the world, but today their production is just 36,000 MT (600,000 bags). Production dropped due to the introduction of agrarian reforms and price controls, which led to many farms being abandoned. Whilst there is some optimism that things will change, currently it is far too early to say with any certainty. Although what is certain is that any revival would not be quick, but rather something to look out for in coming years.

2025 was a huge year for Rwanda, and their biggest year yet. Figures released by their National Agricultural Export Development Board (NAEB) show that that they had a massive 39% increase in volume of coffee exported compared to 2024. 2025 saw 23,860 MT of coffee exported from the country, worth $148.6 million, versus 17,142 MT worth $89.8 million in 2024. The average price of exported Rwandan coffee also grew by 19% to 6.20 $/kg, and farmers on average earnt 0.62 $/kg (RWF900), above the NAEB-set minimum price of 0.41 $/kg (RWF600). Claude Bizimana, the Chief Executive of NAEB, attributed this growth to emerging markets, such as the Middle East, buying Rwandan coffee. These figures seem to suggest that Rwanda is well on its way to achieving its goal of exporting 32,000 MT by 2029.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened almost every day last week, crossing over the 99 mark on Friday after mixed economic data lead investors to reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at their next meeting. This was also paired with the delay in the Supreme Courts decision on the legality of Trump’s Tariffs. If found to be unlawful, this could leave a large gap in the already large US budget deficit. All of this is happening against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty which can only ever increase uncertainty and volatility in international markets.

The GBP fell against the USD during this period, as traders awaited more economic data to better gauge the state of the UK economy. Analysts now predict a high chance of BoE holding the interest rate at 3.75% when it meets in Feb. The EUR seems to have reached a nice equilibrium for the moment, with middle of the road economic data leading any swings in its relative value more about other currencies than itself.

Coffee Market Report 05/01/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 29th December, 2025 to Friday 2nd January, 2026 and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market

Last week continued the low trading volumes expected during the holiday season, with both New York (Arabica) and London (Robusta) closed on the 1st for New Year’s Day. Opening the week just under 350 usc/lb, Monday 29th December posted modest gains on both the Arabica and Robusta markets following the slight upward trend from the week prior. For Arabica, the biggest driver has been the below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais (a key coffee producing region in Brazil), which continued to drive the market on Tuesday 30th to a 2-week high of 359.30 usc/lb before profit taking led to a reversal, eventually closing out 1.95 usc/lb lower at 350.20 usc/lb. After another mixed but more subdued day on Wednesday 31st which ended 1.45 usc/lb lower still, Arabica’s main action was seen after the public holiday on Friday 2nd Jan. Strengthening of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar pushed coffee futures up, which in turn sparked short covering further driving up prices. All in all, the March terminal closed 8.55 usc/lb up at 357.30 usc/lb.

Origin

Further news out of Indonesia this week. According to the president of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association, initial estimates following the flooding suggest the 2025/26 crop exports will be reduced by 15%. This is certainly significant, but not surprising given the extent of the floods, damaging a third of farms in northern Sumatra, where much of the Arabica crop is grown. This is further compounded by the impact the flooding has had on infrastructure. Robusta is less affected, as in Sumatra largely it is grown in the south of the island, where the storms did far less damage.

In India Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been reduced from 18% to 5% on coffee extracts, essences and instant coffee, which is expected to lower coffee retail prices by 11-12%. This comes as part of an initiative to increase domestic consumption. That being said, last financial year (2024/5), India became the seventh largest exporter of coffee in the world, totalling $1.8 billion. So far this year (2025/6) exports are valued at $1.341 billion, which is already 13.74% higher than this time last year. Let’s see if the reduction in GST will curb this export growth. 

Colombian harvest figures from November 2025 have been released by the FNC. During the month Colombia produced 1.26 million bags, an increase from October as is usual. It was, however, quite a bit lower than the 5-year average for November, which is 1.33 million bags. Although that being said, last year was a record harvest, therefore we would expect it to be lower this year. There is also the potential of some heavy rain as the peak harvest continues, which is far from ideal. Rain during the harvest makes drying the coffee much more difficult. If coffee does not dry steadily and evenly you are more likely to get defects in the cup. 

Currency & Macro Outlook

The US Dollar index (DXY) strengthened during the week, even amid the unfolding instability in Venezuela. The Pound Sterling, a constituent member of the basket of currencies used to form the DXY, remained more resilient last week, as the BoE is more cautious and potentially more stable when compared to the dollar. The Euro remained largely range-bound between the Christmas and New Year’s period, as we await more economic data and news at the beginning of 2026.