January Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report 12/01/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 5th January, 2026 to Friday 9th January, 2026 and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market

The holiday period came to a definitive end on Monday 5^th Jan as market volume picked back up on both the Arabica and Robust markets. Origin had remained active in the market over Christmas and New Years as many origins’ harvests are in full swing, applying downward pressure during this period. Speculators re-entering the market this week helped drive this, with the market climbing 16.50 usc/lb in the first two sessions. Showing signs of fatigue by Wednesday, the market closed higher again, but almost 7.5 usc/lb lower than the intraday high.

Thursday tried and failed to break the 385 usc/lb barrier, capped off as origin selling picked up in light of a high market and strong dollar. News of rains this week in Brazil eased concerns which, along with the DXY reaching a 4-week high, led to a sell-off on Friday 9^th and closing 14.70 usc/lb down. While the week opened at 354.55 usc/lb and hit 383.85 usc/lb at it’s highest (an increase of 29.3 usc/lb), we closed out the week a mere 3.10 usc/lb higher at 357.65 usc/lb.

Origin

Political instability in South America following the US’s actions in Venezuela, has made many nervous for the knock-on implications on the continent.  There are fears that Colombia, too, is at risk of unsolicited interference, whether that be economic, political or military. The uncertainty of what that could mean for Colombia has had an impact on driving up coffee prices, according to a report by Rabobank.

Both President Petro of Colombia and President Lula of Brazil have criticised what has unfolded in Venezuela. Lula’s criticism in particular has raised concerns over the relationship between the US and Brazil, which has been particularly choppy over the last year and had significant implications on the price of coffee. There has also been below-average rainfall in key coffee-growing regions in Brazil. This has the potential to harm volumes of the next crop.

In Venezuela, there is some hope for a revival of their agricultural industry following the removal of President Maduro. In the 19^th century the country was one of the biggest producers of coffee in the world, but today their production is just 36,000 MT (600,000 bags). Production dropped due to the introduction of agrarian reforms and price controls, which led to many farms being abandoned. Whilst there is some optimism that things will change, currently it is far too early to say with any certainty. Although what is certain is that any revival would not be quick, but rather something to look out for in coming years.

2025 was a huge year for Rwanda, and their biggest year yet. Figures released by their National Agricultural Export Development Board (NAEB) show that that they had a massive 39% increase in volume of coffee exported compared to 2024. 2025 saw 23,860 MT of coffee exported from the country, worth $148.6 million, versus 17,142 MT worth $89.8 million in 2024. The average price of exported Rwandan coffee also grew by 19% to 6.20 $/kg, and farmers on average earnt 0.62 $/kg (RWF900), above the NAEB-set minimum price of 0.41 $/kg (RWF600). Claude Bizimana, the Chief Executive of NAEB, attributed this growth to emerging markets, such as the Middle East, buying Rwandan coffee. These figures seem to suggest that Rwanda is well on its way to achieving its goal of exporting 32,000 MT by 2029.

Currency & Macro Outlook

The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened almost every day last week, crossing over the 99 mark on Friday after mixed economic data lead investors to reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at their next meeting. This was also paired with the delay in the Supreme Courts decision on the legality of Trump’s Tariffs. If found to be unlawful, this could leave a large gap in the already large US budget deficit. All of this is happening against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty which can only ever increase uncertainty and volatility in international markets.

The GBP fell against the USD during this period, as traders awaited more economic data to better gauge the state of the UK economy. Analysts now predict a high chance of BoE holding the interest rate at 3.75% when it meets in Feb. The EUR seems to have reached a nice equilibrium for the moment, with middle of the road economic data leading any swings in its relative value more about other currencies than itself.

Coffee Market Report 05/01/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 29th December, 2025 to Friday 2nd January, 2026 and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market

Last week continued the low trading volumes expected during the holiday season, with both New York (Arabica) and London (Robusta) closed on the 1st for New Year’s Day. Opening the week just under 350 usc/lb, Monday 29th December posted modest gains on both the Arabica and Robusta markets following the slight upward trend from the week prior. For Arabica, the biggest driver has been the below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais (a key coffee producing region in Brazil), which continued to drive the market on Tuesday 30th to a 2-week high of 359.30 usc/lb before profit taking led to a reversal, eventually closing out 1.95 usc/lb lower at 350.20 usc/lb. After another mixed but more subdued day on Wednesday 31st which ended 1.45 usc/lb lower still, Arabica’s main action was seen after the public holiday on Friday 2nd Jan. Strengthening of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar pushed coffee futures up, which in turn sparked short covering further driving up prices. All in all, the March terminal closed 8.55 usc/lb up at 357.30 usc/lb.

Origin

Further news out of Indonesia this week. According to the president of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association, initial estimates following the flooding suggest the 2025/26 crop exports will be reduced by 15%. This is certainly significant, but not surprising given the extent of the floods, damaging a third of farms in northern Sumatra, where much of the Arabica crop is grown. This is further compounded by the impact the flooding has had on infrastructure. Robusta is less affected, as in Sumatra largely it is grown in the south of the island, where the storms did far less damage.

In India Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been reduced from 18% to 5% on coffee extracts, essences and instant coffee, which is expected to lower coffee retail prices by 11-12%. This comes as part of an initiative to increase domestic consumption. That being said, last financial year (2024/5), India became the seventh largest exporter of coffee in the world, totalling $1.8 billion. So far this year (2025/6) exports are valued at $1.341 billion, which is already 13.74% higher than this time last year. Let’s see if the reduction in GST will curb this export growth. 

Colombian harvest figures from November 2025 have been released by the FNC. During the month Colombia produced 1.26 million bags, an increase from October as is usual. It was, however, quite a bit lower than the 5-year average for November, which is 1.33 million bags. Although that being said, last year was a record harvest, therefore we would expect it to be lower this year. There is also the potential of some heavy rain as the peak harvest continues, which is far from ideal. Rain during the harvest makes drying the coffee much more difficult. If coffee does not dry steadily and evenly you are more likely to get defects in the cup. 

Currency & Macro Outlook

The US Dollar index (DXY) strengthened during the week, even amid the unfolding instability in Venezuela. The Pound Sterling, a constituent member of the basket of currencies used to form the DXY, remained more resilient last week, as the BoE is more cautious and potentially more stable when compared to the dollar. The Euro remained largely range-bound between the Christmas and New Year’s period, as we await more economic data and news at the beginning of 2026.