February Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 23rd February to Friday 27th February and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market

As February drew to a close, the last few stragglers with open Mar-26 positions mostly closed out. As of Monday 23rd Feb, just shy of 600 delivery notices were issued in total for Mar-26, with the about 90% of the <100 lot movement being Mar-May switches. Volume against the most active terminal, May-26, was also low on Monday – somewhat typical when the previous contract reaches expiry.

Monday and Tuesday’s movements looked substantial, but ultimately cancelled each other out as the market tested the bounds of 275 – 285 usc/lb. Mid-week trading was also somewhat muted, posting marginal losses on both Wednesday and Thursday as the market seemed to be in a local equilibrium of commercial buying propping it up and continued news of large 26/27 predictions pushing it down. Friday picked up a little bit of momentum (although still low volume compared to recent weeks), as the market broke below the 280 usc/lb mark in early trading.

This failed to materialise into anything with the market regaining from the lows of 276.10 usc/lb to close out just above 280 again at 280.75 usc/lb: a 3.25 usc/lb net decrease for the week.

Origin

CONAB, Brazil’s national supply company, has launched a free and publicly available platform aimed at helping certify coffee as deforestation-free in anticipation of the long delayed EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation) coming into effect later this year. Elsewhere in Brazil, Emater-MG, a public company which provides agricultural support in Minas Gerais, is expanding on its programme to promote ‘cover crops’ in coffee fields. This practice encourages planting alternative crops in between rows of coffee plants to increase the biodiversity, soil quality, and reduce erosion. Beginning in 2021, the initiative has been driven by exporters, and greater interest in regenerative and sustainable practices.

In Kenya, the Nairobi Coffee exchange has announced plans to diversify its revenue to protect itself against volatile coffee pricing. Part of these plans include hiking membership fees, with additional revenue expected to come by providing market intelligence.

The Ethiopian Coffee Culture Day on 21st February 2026 was used to highlight the country’s bid to gain UNESCO’s Intangible Cultural Heritage Recognition for their traditional coffee ceremony. Securing recognition would help boost Ethiopia’s status within the supply chain, as well as aid in narratives for specialty buyers, and increase tourism.

Currency & Macro Outlook

Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD firmed in early trading on Monday 23rd February as the market digested the Supreme Court’s ruling that Donald Trump’s sweeping ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were illegal. After hitting 1.353 and 1.183 respectively, the USD managed to claw back some value before dropping again on Thursday following a report from the Department of Labor which detailed 212,000 people filed for initial jobless claims in the US the previous week; an indicator that US jobs could be stagnating after better-than-expected reports in January.

In the UK, the shock byelection win by the Greens in the Gorton and Denton constituency hinted at political instability at home, as the Labour party placed behind not only the Greens but also Reform UK. This drove the GBP/USD below 1.35 while the EUR/USD looked to close out the week above 1.18.

Coffee Market Report 23/02/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 16th February to Friday 20th February and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

With the Arabica market closed on Monday for Washington’s Birthday in the US, the trading week began on Tuesday, with May ’26 opening at 295.05 usc/lb. Continuing the overarching bearish trend, coffee futures fell over 15 usc/lb on Tuesday. Aside from the Brazil crop forecasts, which have prompted the recent downwards trend, analysts have additionally pointed to a large number of bags added to pending grading for certified stocks on Friday (25,101). A slight rally in the USD index (DXY) added to the pressure in early trading but backed off later in the day. Volume picked up again on Thursday on news of 14,935 bags added to certified stocks and the DXY picking up again in early trading with the market falling to new lows of 275.65 usc/lb before recovering in later sessions and ultimately breaking even (+0.25 usc/lb at close). Friday’s session opened 2.75 usc/lb higher than Thursday’s close, but after a day of mixed trading failed to make any significant gains and closed just 0.3 usc/lb higher than Thursday at 285.70 usc/lb – a net decrease of 9.35 usc/lb for the week. 

Origin

We have all seen the impact of climate change on coffee over the last few years. Now, new data has been released by Climate Central that puts some of the effects on coffee-growing countries in black and white. They have focused on the increasing number of days with ‘coffee-harming temperatures’ across the world’s key coffee regions. The impact of which has been reduced harvest volumes and a very high coffee price. The threshold for when heat becomes detrimental to coffee cultivation is 30 degrees Celsius. In these conditions, and hotter, coffee experiences heat stress, which can lower quality, yield and resistance to diseases. 

The research shows that in 2025, coffee growing countries experienced on average 47 additional days above 30 degrees Celsius than in 2021. This was over the main 25 coffee-producing countries, which account for 97% of global production.  

The results are worse for the 5 biggest coffee producing origins, which have experienced on average 57 more days of harmful temperatures. These countries include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia, who together grow 75% of the world’s coffee. 

Drilling further down to the world’s biggest producer of coffee, Brazil, the situation is worse still. Brazil saw an additional 70 days of harmfully high temperatures in 2025 compared to 2021.  

This is certainly alarming, and without taking action to mitigate climate change, we are likely to see an increasing impact on coffee, with smaller harvests and potentially lower quality. 

Currency & Macro Outlook 

Early in the week, GBP fell against both USD and EUR in anticipation of a March rate cut from the BoE. Unemployment was revealed to have reached a 5 year high in the UK, while wage growth has cooled, adding to the flailing pound.

At the same time, the US Dollar Index made gains as Fed minutes signalled that a rate cut may be less likely across the pond. The gains in the USD were softened later in the week amid speculation that the US would intervene in Iran, with the Supreme Court ruling on Friday that Trump overstepped his executive powers by imposing tariffs on almost every country, which is certain to have an effect as well.

Coffee Market Report 16/02/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 9th February to Friday 13th February and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

This week we will be focusing on May-26 (KCK26) terminal since it is now the most active. 

Monday 9th Feb saw prices rebound, as low prices increased demand and the COT report from the previous week showed that non-commercials had decreased their net long position. Although initially trading lower on open, once the US came online the buying picked up but overall capped by Origin selling.  

Tuesday saw a reversal in the market, amidst an additional ~7,000 bags of certified stocks reported. This failed to buck the upwards trend as Wednesday and Thursday continued to push the market above the end of previous week’s close. Friday pushed prices above the 300 usc/lb mark once again but ultimately closed almost flat at 298.30 usc/lb, up from the week’s open of 287.95 usc/lb. 

Most of the volume this week has been attributed to rolling the Mar-26 to May-26 position, with the H/K spread reducing to 1/10th of what it was a month ago. Upwards pressure from commercial players given the sub 300 usc/lb prices has been kept in check by origin selling whenever we get closer to 300, as well as a few other bearish factors such as certified stocks and the predicted bumper Brazil crop for 26/27. 

Origin

Exports from Brazil in January 2026 fell by 30.8% compared to January 2025, according to figures released by Cecafe. Total volume of exports came to 2.78 million bags, compared to 4.016 million bags in the same period last year. This decrease it due largely to the lower prices we have seen in January, which have continued to drop off in February, as reports have started to suggest that the 2026/7 crop will be substantial. Marcio Ferreira, the president of Cecafe, stated that limited stocks in the off season for Arabica, plus the growing domestic consumption of Robusta both contributed to the lower export volumes as well.  

In Vietnam, the story is the reverse: exports in January 2026 have increased by 38.3% versus January 2025, as reported by Vietnam’s National Statistics Office. This year, January saw 3.3 million bags exported from Vietnam. Over the course of 2025, however, exports increased compared to 2024. A 17.5% increase year on year, to a staggering 26.3 million bags over the year. And this year is expected to be no different, with an estimated further 6% increase of exports year on year, which would see the largest crop out of Vietnam in 4 years. This bumper crop from the world’s largest producer of Robusta is a bearish sign for the Robusta market, as an abundance of Robusta available would likely push the prices down. 

This March the fourth edition of the Honduras Origin Coffee Fest will be held in Copan. The core purpose of the event is to enable meaningful connections between producing families and people in the international coffee industry, such as exporters, and encourage these relationships to go beyond a single harvest. This year’s edition of the event places special focus on innovative projects that have been directly developed by producer families, reflecting a long-term vision. This will include a focus on women’s leaderhsip, carbon neutrality, full traceability and direct trade models, illustrating how origin actively contributes to protecting the value chain.  

Currency & Macro Outlook 

The GBP USD pair were mostly range bound last week, as a mix of economic data from either side of the pond kept each other in check. News of better–than–expected jobs growth in the US signalled that interest rates may remain held for now. Across this side of the pond, the ONS released data on GDP growth slowed to 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025. Although worse than expected, it seems the markets had already factored in low GDP growth as no discernible fallout materialised. Near the end of the week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in cooler than expected for January, prompting many to revisit their estimation of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting. 

Coffee Market Report 09/02/2026

This report covers the period from Monday 2nd February to Friday 7th February and was written by James Duncan and Wakefield.

Coffee Market 

The week started on a mixed note, as Monday, 2nd Feb, arrested the downwards momentum from the previous week. News of a cold front from North America pushing south into coffee-growing origins pushed prices up towards close, and eventually Mar-26 settled 1 usc/lb above the previous week’s close at 332.25 usc/lb. When the cold front failed to materialise, fears of frosts in Central American coffee growing regions, the market turned back towards the prevailing bear run, with Tuesday and Wednesday collectively knocking 24.6/17.2 usc/lb off the Mar/May contracts respectively and May dipping below the 300 usc/lb before closing just above. Origin selling and speculators exiting their long position generated most of the momentum, as the market hit its highest total volume in almost a year. It was also around this time that Mar-26 was knocked off the top spot of most active contract, as the Mar/May spread reduced drastically from over 18 usc down to just over 10 usc during this time.

Thursday briefly arrested the bearish momentum, as the narrowing Mar/May spread encouraged commercial buying and provided some resistance. This ultimately proved to be only a hiccup in the week, as Friday continued the recent trend: Mar followed May below the 300 usc/lb threshold, closing the week 35.2 usc/lb lower than Monday, with May closing 25.7 usc/lb lower. The recent sell-off has mainly been attributed to signs of abundant coffee supplies coming into the 26/27 crop. Brazil’s crop forecast agency, Conab, released predictions that 2026 production will increase 17.2% year on year to reach a record 66.2 million bags from the origin, with Arabica production up 23.2 % and Robusta up 6.3%. Exports of Vietnamese Robusta paint a similarly bearish picture, with January exports 38.3% year-on-year.

Origin

In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, a high-level Policy Forum brought together African governments, international institutions and private sector leaders. This forum was part of the Third African Coffee Week, and was organised by the Inter-African Coffee Organisation (IACO). The theme of the forum is ‘Advancing Climate Resilience and the Transformation of the African Coffee Sector’, and is heavily focused on sustainability, collaboration and the future of coffee on the continent, and was structured around five pillars: climate resilience, value addition, compliance with international market standards, research and knowledge sharing, and social inclusion. Coffee is important to a number of African economies, and supports millions of smallholder farmers across the continent. The forum included the official launch of the African Coffee Sustainability Standards, led by the African Organisation for Standardisation, which is considered a milestone in strengthening market access and regulatory alignment for African coffee producers.

Heavy rain in Brazil’s coffee belt last week spelt good news for predictions of Brazil’s next crop. Minas Gerais, the biggest arabica-producing region in Brazil, had almost 70mm of rainfall, 117% of the seasonal average. The forecast for the upcoming week is similarly positive, with frequent rains still to come. This rain has alleviated some fears over drought, which has heavily impacted and reduced past crops. Whilst this outlook is positive and suggests a bumper Brazilian crop is coming our way, it is prudent to take the good news with a pinch of salt, as we are still too early in the season to be out of the danger zone and risks to this crop still remain.

The Vietnamese government has launched a $102.5 million project, RECAF, in collaboration with the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF).  The project is focused on combatting rising greenhouse gas emissions and protect vital forest ecosystems, where rural people rely on coffee production. This project is expected to reduce 6.68 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, restore and improve 145,000 hectares of agroforestry land, and protect 500,000 hectares of high-value natural forest over the next 6 years. RECAF will aid farmers in adopting climate-smart agroforestry practices, which help protect the natural forests, and also promote deforestation-free agriculture. This should contribute to sustainable-economic growth and ensure the future of coffee growing in Vietnam.  “This project is critically important for Dak Lak and the Central Highlands [key coffee-producing regions],” said Nguyen Thien Van, Vice Chairman of the People’s Committee of Dak Lak Province. “By integrating forest protection with sustainable farming, RECAF will help farmers increase their incomes while safeguarding forests for future generations.”

Currency & Macro 

The GBP/USD pair entered the week on a high note and pushed into the 1.37 range again early in the week before tumbling down to below 1.355 on Friday amid the political uncertainty surrounding PM Kier Starmer in the ongoing Mandelson crisis, along with a healthy dollop of rate cut from the BoE bets. 

The EUR/USD pair fared better last week, trading mainly range bound between 1.1775 and 1.1825. Analysts still predict that there won’t be a rate cut from the ECB in the near future, which will help the Euro in the short term against