COFFEE MARKET NEWS Week Ending: 4th Sep 2015
|
|
31thAug |
1st Sep |
2nd Sep |
3rd Sep |
4thSep |
|
NYC |
124.30 |
120.80 |
118.35 |
119.55 |
119.15 |
|
LIFFE |
Closed |
1603 |
1581 |
1590 |
1599 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5401 |
1.5309 |
1.5316 |
1.5257 |
1.5198 |
Labour day in the US!
It’s Labour Day across the pond today so NYC is closed until Tuesday. London is trading as per usual.
NYC: NYC closed lower on Friday and it was a quiet day, reflecting the long weekend ahead. The market has been trying to hang on near 120 but must at least jolt back over 122.5 to actually dispel the flag notion and return sights to 126.
LIFFE:
The numbers are building with carry-over stock in Vietnam sizeable and the prospects of a decent crop into the new season. Visible stocks in Europe are not going down. We are now entering an important part of the year with some market leaders poised to initiate their forward buying programmes.
Currency:
In the FX markets, we saw support for the dollar as GBP/USD was at $1.5198 on Friday. EUR/USD followed suit.
Origins
Indonesia: As mentioned last week with regard to PNG, El Niño is also predicted to affect coffee output in Indonesia. An Indonesian coffee industry group has lowered its output forecast by more than 100,000 tonnes for the second time this year dues to an El Niño conditions. Indonesia is expected to face moderate el Niño conditions from July through to November, with stronger conditions predicted towards the end of the year. Some areas have had less rain than last year with farmers there desperate for rainfall in the face of very dry soil.
Brazil: Cocatrel, a cooperative based in South Minas in the heart of the world’s largest coffee belt, has informed that the harvest is 80% complete. They have confirmed that the SCR is smaller across the board, although quality has not been affected. Cocatrel agronomist Roberto Felicori said the region expects to harvest 30% less coffee this season than it would have produced if not for the drought over the past two years.
Peru: Southern Peru has been particularly badly hit by Roya. Some families harvesting coffee are seeing yields of 100-150kg per hectare this year compared with 500-750kg per hectare before the epidemic began a few years ago. Coupled with more unpredictable rainfall and longer dry seasons, water shortages and soil erosion are badly affecting coffee production in this coffee producing region.
And in other news, DRW’s Phil and Henry will be attending the Dublin Coffee Festival this Friday to celebrate all things great in Ireland’s Coffee Scene. Look out for them!
