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Coffee Market report 8th September 2014 to 12th September 2014

COFFEE MARKET NEWS 8th September – 12th September 2014




Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:







NY Dec-14 c/lb






Lon Nov-14 $/t













Futures Markets:

Arabica: Technical have all turned pointing bearish and confirm a full trading range under the 26 day moving average of the lows, it doesn’t look like it’s quite done. Some days broke the 100 and 50 day moving averages and closed under a long time 61.8% retracement at 181.45. We might see some bounce back thanks to some profit taking on some short term sellers but for now it looks like that may be the best case scenario.

Robusta: Followed the NY ICE and went down on Wednesday and the following days has reach even lower level of 1988, the week closed at 1997$/mt, which brings the difference of 72$/mt between Monday and Friday.

Currency: On the FX markets, further polls on the Scottish referendum have kept Sterling susceptible to volatility which saw GBP bounce back from a ten month low against the US dollar. With the balance of voting tipping both ways, the latest poll showed 53% voting against Scottish independence. GBP/USD recovered to a high of $1.6269 aided by the weak US jobless claims data. Meanwhile, the euro clawed back some of it losses with EUR/USD reaching a high of $1.2951.

Physical Markets:

Brazil: crop is likely to reach 48.83 million bags in 2015 based on historical trends, up 9.6 percent from this year's drought-stricken harvest, according to the government's crop supply agency Conab. In May, Conab estimated Brazil would produce 44.57 million 60-kg bags this year after hot, dry weather hurt arabica output from the world's biggest coffee belt. With this year's harvest almost over, Conab is expected to announce a new 2014 crop forecast next week.

Colombia – Coffee flow improving slowly, although it has become drier again and some areas require more rains for a final push to the bean ripening process. A large first flowering for the midcrop took place in several central regions which is encouraging, however again good rain is needed latest in early October for their further development. 

El Salvador: exports from El Salvador fell 88 percent in August from the same month a year earlier, mostly because of damage from the tree-killing fungus roya, the country's national coffee council said on Thursday. Shipments in August totalled 10,080 60-kilogram bags. Exports during the first 11 months of the current 2013/2014 season reached 489,241 60-kg bags, down 56.6 percent compared with the same period during the previous harvest.

Ethiopia – HAPPY NEW YEAR ETHIOPIA welcome into 2007 –  the market in NY collapse, so after some more active trades seen with the market around 200 cents it came to a standstill again. 2nd hand offers FOB and spot are back to be attractive for buyers.

India – Nothing much to report this week, there is a respite from continuous rain which is helpful for bean growth. Local market is at a standstill, Rupee steady.

Indonesia: Coffee flowers blossomed one month earlier than usual in Indonesia, but the lack of other signs pointing to a bumper crop in the next harvest year have checked losses in global robusta prices, dealers said on Wednesday.

Tanzania: arabica coffee prices rose at auction last week, tracking higher New York markets as demand increased, and the regulator Tanzania Coffee Board (TCB) said on Tuesday. Prices of robusta coffee beans fell at the second auction of the season, but all the bags on offer were sold.

Kenya: The maximum price of Kenyan grade AA coffee fell at auction on Tuesday by 2% per 50kg bag, from last week's sale, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said.