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Coffee Market report 5th January 2015 to 9th January 2015

COFFEE MARKET NEWS Week Ending: 9th January 2015

 

5th Jan

6th Jan

7th Jan

8th Jan

9th Jan

NYC

168.10

174.90

175.05

176.90

180.05

LIFFE

1889

1952

1980

1969

1963

GBP / USD

1.5292

1.5218

1.5149

1.5072

1.5104

 

 

 

 

 

Commentary – The circus is in town and the bears are back in their cages

The week began with a bang! In a period that was supposed to offer increased selling pressure amongst the endless chat we have been hearing and reading about index rebalancing, we saw the complete opposite. NYC rallied over 8cts on Monday, and by Wednesday had made a high of nearly 183cts – 23 cts in 3 days. The index selling did arrive on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, which helped cap the upward momentum slightly, but not enough to push this market down, and after posting 4 out of 5 positive days, we closed the week at 180.05 – 19cts higher on the previous Friday’s close. Expect more zany performances this week, as NYC returns to a bull market.

Often the underperformer, Liffe tried to follow NYC in activity, but couldn’t manage the interest or volume – the same afflictions helping turn NYC around (more Brazil drought fears) seem to have little impact. This, despite talks of Vietnam (The largest producer of Robusta) expecting a smaller crop this year. All eyes remain on Arabica!

Origin Activity

Brazil – 2 weeks without rain and the world expects drought – thank goodness not all markets are this sensationalist! Internal differentials remain steady, coffee flow continues, we’ve not run out of coffee yet. Quality from some single estates this season is incredible, even if the trade off for the drought is slightly smaller bean sizes. Size after all, isn’t everything!

Congo – Once the dark horse of the coffee world, a relatively undiscovered gem – Congo once offered fantastic opportunities to ‘grab a bargain’. It’s washed coffees offering typical East Africa flavours at heavily discounted prices – great for those roasters who needed to fill their East African basket, but couldn’t stomach the usual lofty pricing. No more. It seems internal pricing this season is very firm, replacement differentials up 10cts on last year – could this be the season Congo breaks out of the shadow of its East African cousins?

Cuba – a largely forgotten coffee producer, Cuba has been growing coffee for over 200 years. The Campesinos (mountain farmers) cultivating their crop amid the shade of indigenous trees. US Sanctions have reduced production from 750,000 Bags to less than 100,000 today in only 40 years. But availability of this once prized coffee prevails, and this season we welcome the new crop with its robust rich chocolaty notes and heavy body to our shores – just don’t try and pay for it with Paypal!

Kenya – Main Crop auctions are in full swing at the weekly Nairobi Coffee Auction, with the usual sprinkling of exceptional high grown northern co operative coffees becoming available. Quality is as demanded from such an exquisite grower – sensational. Milling continues unabated in the country, as many of the industry players gear up for next months AFCA conference, which this year will be in Nairobi.

India –The post Monsoon estimate for India’s Arabica production has been revised 6% to the negative as changeable weather patterns and stem borer have led to a reduction. Early season dry weather followed by torrential downpours has adversely affected production. The Indian coffee board estimate 1.6m bags, whilst growers themselves offer a more conservative estimate still of 1.1m bags. Robusta production will also see a slight reduction this season down 3% to around 3.9m bags.