Coffee Market Report 4th to 8th of January 2016

COFFEE MARKET NEWS Week Ending: 8^th Jan 2016

Probat has opened a new manufacturing facility in Bangalore, India and used the opening ceremony for the factory to host its third ‘Probat Kaapi Day’.

NYC:

Arabica coffee futures sustained their downward trend, closing at 119.00 on Friday. A move to 115 levels needs careful watching as this could trigger on a move down towards 100. It would take a jolt back over 122 to regain a somewhat firmer footing and expose the 128’s once more.

LIFFE:

Robusta futures continued their decline steadily over the week, closing at 1485.

Currency:

GBP/USD:

The US $ continued its upward momentum throughout the week. On Friday, the US economy added 292,000 jobs in December, coming in 92,000 over the forecast, which provided further fuel to the surge in Dollar strength.

GBP/EUR:

Unemployment fell to its lowest point in 4 years and with strong German factory orders, the Euro has strengthened considerably. It fell to 1.3320 which happened only 3 times in 2015. Each time the Pound recovered. Perhaps we might see the Pound strengthen a tad this week.

Origins:

Colombia:

Colombia’s 2015 coffee harvest totalled 14.2 million bags of 60 kilos (132 lbs.), the largest in 23 years, the National Federation of Coffee Growers said Wednesday. The figure represents an increase of 83 percent over the 2012 harvest, which came in at 7.7 million bags. “This is very good news for the country’s producers,” federation managing director Roberto Velez Vallejo said. The dramatic improvement since 2012 is the fruit “of joint efforts by the coffee growers and the government, who succeeded in renewing domestic coffee-growing and making Colombia an important player in the international market again,” he said.

Costa Rica:

We are hitting the middle of the harvest now for the higher areas while the harvest in the lowlands is coming to a close.

We expect a longer harvest, due to uneven ripening and drought. The Central and West Valley still struggling after Rust and Drought. The South should end below expectation, with a terrible drop in Turrialba (the real delivery out of Turrialba is much below the Icafe forecast).

However, it’s not all bad news. Tarrrazu region produces just over a 1/3 of Costa Rican coffee and is undergoing a strong recovery after last year’s ‘off cycle’ is underway.

Differentials and Outright prices are still high / firm, with uncertainty about NYC movements. Local markets are firming up and this coupled with a smaller harvest in Mexico and El Salvador are keeping prices high.

Ethiopia:

MERRY CRISTMAS! Limited activity even though the New York continues to fall, prices remain firm as per last season.  Minster of trade will invest into farms and small scale farmers to increase production. They are targeting an export rise to 4.3 million bags per year.

Honduras:

Coffee exports from Honduras rose 11.7 percent in December compared to the same month last year, national coffee institute IHCAFE said on Wednesday. Coffee shipments from Honduras, Central America’s top producer, totaled 320,957.93 60-kg bags in December. Honduras expects to export about 5.52 million bags during the current 2015/2016 season, which would mark a 10 percent increase compared to shipments during the previous 2014/2015 cycle.

India:

Even as Arabica exports plunged, higher robusta shipments have pulled up the Indian coffee exports for 2015 marginally over the previous year. Plagued with production woes from pest attacks and fluctuating prices, Arabica is fast losing out to the sturdier Robusta in coffee estates. The shift to Robusta cultivation that started about four years ago has gained momentum of late. “Very few are selling Arabica coffee which has been freshly harvested. Given the current prices it is not remunerative for the growers, ” said Ramesh Rajah, president of Coffee Exporters Association of India.

In other news…

Coffee makes you a better driver? Researchers in Australia claim that although caffeine ‘only marginally reduces drowsiness in drivers,’ it significantly reduces driver errors. This finding was presented by researchers at the Australian Psychological Society Conference.

FLORCERT and UTZ are to collaborate to enable combined UTZ and Fairtrade audits for coffee, tea, and rooibos. For coffee, the collaboration will start in a few select countries in Central America, with the view to rolling out to other countries in the coffee belt in the coming year.