Coffee Market report 30th March 2015 to 3rd April 2015

COFFEE MARKET NEWS Week Ending: 3^rd April 2015

Commentary

A short week for the markets this week in observance of Good Friday. And in preparation of all things being good – New York staged a strong close to the week recovering from the previous days’ negative closes ending the week not only in positive territory, but also squarely above the 26 day moving average.

London – again a shortened week of trading, but one that finally gave a little positive light – London closing 56usd/mt higher than its Mondays close. Whether this is just a spill over of excitement from New York, or the Easter break ahead, who knows – next week will likely provide some direction.

GBP / USD The USD continues to hold strong against the GBP, even amidst poor US employment figures that loomed heavy on good Friday.  The run up to the UK election and EU fears continue to suppress currencies closer to home.

GBP/EURO The Euro around 1.37 seems quite happy at the moment – given the announcement Greece will honour its next repayment of EU debts, we could see a little strengthening over the coming days.

Origins

Brazil – Uncertainty prevails in Brazil regarding this year’s crop. With conflicting reports last week – one pegging the crop estimate in the high 48m bags area, and the other a more conservative 45m. It seems some institutions aren’t able to even agree on last year’s production figures. What is certain however is that Arabica seems to be outperforming Robusta, with an anticipated 2m  bag increase this year as good rains have helped recover the wilted drought affected trees from last year.

Vietnam – Coffee Stocks in Ho Chi Minh are over a third lower compared to this time last year, with over half the crop still remaining up country, as reports put it “in strong hands” This refers to either wealthy farmers, or local speculators using the coffee as a hedge against currency devaluation or speculating on a rising price. With such shortness in supply, and a reduced conilon crop in Brazil, the local market is in an enviable position, able to ask any price they see fit.

Colombia – Another boost in production is expected this year with total production expected to be over 13m bags – up from 12m last year (and as low as 7m only a couple of years ago) Fedecafe has an upper limit on their estimate of 14m bags! Maturing trees from the widespread replanting are finally ‘bearing fruit’

London Coffee Festival – Fast Approaching, the 2015 London Coffee Festival will take place in the old Truman Brewery on Brick Lane, London. DRW will be exhibiting, with Producer presentations, roaster brew bars, and cupping each and every day. There will also be 2 charity auctions, as we offer up a few of our best coffees for sale – with all profits going to Water Aid charity.