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Coffee Market report 28th April to 2nd May 2014

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
NY Jul-14 c/lb 201.15 211.90 205.85 204.15 203.20
Lon Jul-14 $/t 2126 2139 2168 2173 2154
£/$ 1.6806 1.6825 1.6870 1.6893 1.6870

Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:

Futures Markets:
Arabica: ICE fell back on Wednesday after surging around 5 percent during the previous session with prices looking set to hold around the highest levels in more than two years until crop losses in Brazil can be assessed. “I think everybody is very uncertain what to expect from the harvest in Brazil,” Commerzbank analyst Michaela Kuhl said. “As long as we don’t have any fundamental information coming in I think prices will remain very volatile around these high levels,” she added.
Robusta: The action mirrored NY’s actions although in a much less volatile fashion. Most of the trading seemed to be spec related inter mingled with some very light trade business and spreads. Options were less active than yesterday with only a few strategies gleaning interest. There were no tenders again today, it seems that someone is waiting with a surprise delivery near month end. There were a large amount of gradings again, mostly Vietnam with a smattering of Brazil Conillon.
Currency: On the FX markets, GBP/USD rose to a high of $1.6918 the highest level since August 2009, meanwhile GBP/EUR rose to €1.2186.
Physical Markets:
Brazil: Dealers said the market was underpinned by the prospect that exports from Brazil may fall in the 2014/15 season as the drought earlier this year prevents the cane crop reaching its full potential. Brazil, the world’s number one coffee producer, looks set to suffer crop losses following a drought in the key growing regions earlier this year. The extent of those losses, however, will not become clear until the harvest gets underway.
Guatemala: Guatemala exported 398,638 60-kg bags last month, down from the 435,587 bags it exported in April 2013. Exports from Guatemala fell by 8.5 percent in April compared with the same month a year earlier, national coffee organization Anacafe said on Monday.
Honduras: exports from Honduras, Central America’s largest producer, fell 1.5 percent in April from the same month last year, national coffee institute IHCAFE said on Monday. Shipments from Honduras totalled 580,284 60-kilogram bags for the month. Coffee exports during the first seven months of the 2013/2014 harvesting season reached 2.56 million bags, down 13.4 percent from the same seven-month period during the 2012/2013 season.
Costa Rica: exports from Costa Rica fell by 20.4 percent in April, compared with the same month during the previous cycle, national coffee institute ICAFE said on Friday. Total shipments from Costa Rica, a smaller producer known for its high-quality bean, reached 163,713 60-kg bags in April from 205,592 bags the same month a year earlier. Total exports since the start of the current cycle in October reached 702,024 60-kg bags, down 16.3 percent from the same seven-month period during the last cycle.
Kenya: main coffee harvest usually runs from November to December, with the best quality beans are sold first after they are dried and processed. Sales tend to peak around February and March.
Kenya’s second, smaller crop tends to be harvested from May to June. Weather can change the timings for harvests and sales. The maximum price of Kenya’s benchmark coffee grade fell by 15% per bag at auction last week’s sale, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange said.
Burundi: Revenue from Burundi coffee exports fell 64 percent in the 2013/14 crop year from the previous season, following a slightly smaller off season than normal. Coffee, the nation’s top foreign exchange earner, generated $23.8 million, sharply down from $66.3 million earned in the 2012/13 crop year, official data from regulator ARFIC showed. The landlocked east African country has exported 9,890 tonnes of green coffee in this season versus 24,000 tonnes in the 2012/13 season. ARFIC projects coffee production for April 2014-March 2015 crop year to reach 21,000 tonnes due to good rains and the natural ‘on season’ cycle of the country’s trees.
Indonesia: Robusta coffee bean exports from Indonesia’s main growing area in Sumatra climbed 15 percent to 16,469.58 tonnes in April from a year earlier, government trade data showed on Friday. Indonesia shipped 14,330.22 tonnes of robusta in the same month a year earlier and 9,168.12 tonnes in March.