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Coffee Market Report 18th to 22nd January 2016

COFFEE MARKET NEWS Week Ending: 22nd Jan 2016




21th Jan
























The Wheel’s be re-invented!

The SCAA’s  Coffee Taster’s Flavour Wheel  has been updated for the first time in its 21-year history. And we think it’s pretty awesome!


Arabica futures came under attack and suffered a substantial sell off on Wednesday amid continued global uncertainty, closing at 111.60 in March. It was one of many commodities (and stocks) to suffer from the ongoing global financial woes – Thanks China! However, it quickly bounced back and closed the week out at 116.00.


Following the completion of the harvest and large carry over stock, Vietnamese coffee farmers had large quantities of coffee to sell. Robusta coffee futures slumped to a 5-1/2 year low on Wednesday with the market weighed down by a strong flow of supplies from Vietnam and overall weakness in commodity markets.



Public borrowing in the UK fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis, totalling £74.2bn in the first nine months of the year. Sterling showed positive signs of recovery against its recent losses versus the US dollar on Friday, buoyed by the positive news of public borrowing.


The Euro has been steadily strengthening over the last couple of weeks but on Thursday the Pound bounced back and recovered slightly after the Euro’s recent momentum. This was mainly a result of Draghi’s comments that would provide further stimulus in the next ECB meeting in March.


Brazil’s Agricultural Ministry on Wednesday presented its first study of the new coffee crop, forecasting that 2016’s harvest could reach anywhere between 49.13 million to 51.94 million 60 kg bags. The high end of the forecast by the ministry’s Conab crop supply agency would surpass 2012’s record 50.8 million bags. The estimate is also 14 percent to 20 percent higher than last season’s 43.2-million-bag harvest, which was curtailed by two years of drought. Favourable rains during the flowering and early development stages of the crop, as well as the return to a high-output year in its natural biennial swing (which oscillates between bigger and smaller harvests), is behind the improved outlook. The bulk of the recovery will play out in the larger Arabica crop, whose harvest is expected to grow by 18 percent to 24 percent from last year to between 37.7 million and 39.9 million bags. Production of conillon, the local Robusta, will grow 2 percent to 8 percent from last season to 11.39 million to 12.08 million bags, Conab said.


Cameroon’s coffee production dropped 27 percent last year as the number of coffee cuttings fell short, but exports rose, the National Cocoa and Coffee Board (NCCB) said on Wednesday. Of this year’s crop, 21,846 tonnes were robusta and 2,109 tonnes were arabica. Cameroon exports across the world, principally in Germany, Belgium and Russia. China, Holland and Malaysia were new buyers last year.


Colombia Coffee Crop Seen Falling Amid El Nino Impact. 2016 production may slide to 13m bags from 14.2m last year as drought caused by El Nino reduced yields in some parts of country, says Carlos Ignacio Rojas, president of Asoexport, the association of Colombia coffee exporters. The final effect of El Nino is uncertain, but it is likely to reduce the number of cherries per tree and the bean density. The good news is that the  weak Colombian peso vs the US Dollar is encouraging some producers to invest in farms, which might curb the anticipated crop slide to 13.5m bags. The impact of the drought is mostly in central growing areas.


Uganda’s coffee exports jumped 52.3 percent in December from the same month in 2014 due to favourable weather, according to the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA).

Earnings from the crop, which is Uganda’s largest commodity export and single largest source of foreign exchange, also rose last month to $35.8 million, up from $29.8 million a year earlier.

In other news…

Nespresso is suing the Israeli Espresso Club for using an actor with a striking resemblance to the Hollywood star in one of its ads.

Starbucks stock slips after profit forecast misses Wall Street Street estimates. Christmas sales were strong in the US but weaker than expected in Europe and Asia.

The Rainforest Alliance has announced their new president: Nigel Sizer.

Matt Perger released a brilliant ‘Espresso Compass’ which guides you on how to make the perfect shot of espresso! Find out more here.