DRWakefield +44 (0)20 7202 2620+44 (0)20 7202 2620

Coffee Market report 17th November 2014 to 21st November 2014

COFFEE MARKET NEWS 17th November – 21st November 2014

 

 

Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY Mar-15 c/lb

191.50

192.90

199.10

188.85

190.70

Lon Jan-15 $/t

2065

2068

2091

2078

2078

£/$

1.5647

1.5612

1.5682

1.5704

1.5658

Futures Markets:

Arabica: The week began on Monday correcting much of the previous week’s gains, falling over 8cts from its highs. But with First Notice Day advancing rapidly, the market reacted in spectacular fashion as always jumping 13cts throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, only to lose all of its gains (and more) on Thursday to hit a weekly low of 188.35. Finally the week settled fairly close to where it began – all that action for very little overall change.

Robusta: Not quite as active as the NYC terminal market this week, but the LIFFE exchange managed to struggle though the week, based on Vietnam reports, as its largest robusta contributor.

Currency: On the FX markets, Sterling strengthened after the retail sales data pushing GBP/USD to a high of $1.5736 and GBP/EUR to €1.2545 before easing back. Despite the disappointing PMI release, the euro remains reasonably well supported with EUR/USD holding up above the $1.25 level. Elsewhere, the Yen regained some ground after supporting comments from Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso pushed USD/JPY down to a low of 117.37.

Physical Markets:

Brazil: Continuing uncertainty about Brazil’s 2014/15 crop persist in impacting the market – with the expected off cycle of the trees, the severe drought from the current seasons, and sporadic unseasonably early rains seen in Sep ./ Oct we continue to watch the world’s largest coffee producer eagerly.

Colombia: production in marketing year (MY) 2014/15 is expected to increase to 12.3 million bags (1 bag = 60 kilograms – unless otherwise noted), green bean equivalent (GBE), slightly above Post’s estimate of 11.9 million bags in May 2014. Drought conditions from the El Nino phenomenon were predicted for the second half of 2014; however, weather conditions remain normal with little impact on production. Exports are forecast to increase to 11.3 million bags in MY2014/15, a marginal increase from the May 2014 estimate of 11 million bags.

Nicaragua: exports from Nicaragua rose nearly 150 percent in October from the same month last year to reach 98,796 60-kg bags, the country's national export centre Cetrex said on Friday. Cetrex did not indicate whether the figure for October, the first month of the 2014/2015 harvest, includes some leftovers from the previous cycle which is sometimes the case.

Mexico: The premium of coffee grown in Mexico and stored in U.S. warehouses has tumbled to a 10-month low as exporters there clear out their stocks to make room for the new crop being harvested, U.S. importers said on Thursday. "They're trying to get rid of what they have to make room for their new crop," one importer said. The premium for Mexican high grown coffee fell to an average of 13.5 cents over the March arabica futures contract on ICE Futures U.S., the lowest since late January. This compares with 19.5 cents one week prior.

Indonesia: The Ministry of Trade has predicted that Indonesia's coffee exports will increase by 9.5 percent this year from last year's US$1.17 billion. "As the world's third biggest coffee producer after Brazil and Vietnam, Indonesia must boost its exports. We hope Indonesia's coffee exports will increase by about 9.5-10.5 percent," Director General for National Export Development (PEN) Nus Nuzulia Ishak said in a press statement here over the weekend.