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Coffee Market report 13th October 2014 to 17th October 2014

COFFEE MARKET NEWS 13th October – 17th October 2014



Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:







NY Dec-14 c/lb






Lon Nov-14 $/t













Futures Markets:

Arabica: the week began on a negative opening, and whilst Tuesday did its best to extinguish any negative feeling, it was not enough, and the rest of the week shaved over 11cts of the board closing out at just over 210cts. The promise of long awaited rains in Brazil, and the technical market indicators showing the market at severely over bought levels conspired together to drive this market down – though leaving it still in bullish territory.   

Robusta: LIFFE saw a very slow week this week, with very little to influence it in either direction. No fundamental news broke regarding Robusta stocks, and it seemed as if most players were too distracted with Arabica’s performance to worry about little old Robusta.

Currency: On the FX markets, Sterling came under pressure as markets pushed back their estimated timescales for the first interest rate rise following softer UK inflation data. GBP/USD initially fell to a low of $1.5940 before pushing back above the $1.60 level. Meanwhile GBP/EUR slipped to a low of €1.2452 before regaining losses.

Physical Markets:

Brazil: drought-stressed coffee and sugar cane areas in the main southeast growing region will see slightly improved chances for rains over the next two weeks, local and U.S. weather forecasters said on Friday. The U.S.-based Commodities Weather Group said the chance of heavier rainfall volumes six to 15 days ahead had improved slightly from Thursday's forecast. The group warned, however, that the rains were still likely to miss more than half the coffee and sugar growing areas.

Colombia: An insect which eats only coffee beans has multiplied rapidly in a small number of Colombian farming regions this year due to warmer weather, but nationwide the infestation is limited and there is no major threat to the crop, a coffee official said on Wednesday. Carlos Uribe, the top agronomist at the farmer-funded National Coffee Federation, told Reuters specific coffee areas had reported infestation rates as high as 8 percent versus a nationwide level of 2 percent, but few areas were hit overall.

Peru: declared a 60-day emergency in 11 coffee-growing regions to stop the spread of the roya fungus that is set to cut the country's coffee output by more than 20 percent this year, the agriculture ministry said on Monday. Peru has already wrapped up 95 percent of its harvest, said Jorge Figueroa, a coffee specialist with the ministry. The emergency measure will deploy fungicides to combat the plant disease and help affected farmers cope and renovate their plantations for next year, he said.

Nicaragua: exports from Nicaragua fell 8.2 percent during the recently concluded 2013/2014 harvesting season, the country's export association, Cetrex, said on Friday. Shipments for the season totalled 1.77 million 60-kg bags, compared with 1.93 million bags during the previous 2012/2013 season. Cetrex said exports during September, the last month of the season, were 146,029 bags, up 76.9 percent from the same month last year.

El Salvador: exports from El Salvador plummeted 57.5 percent during the recently concluded 2013/2014 season due to damages caused by the spread of the plant disease roya, the country's national coffee association CSC said on Tuesday. Shipments during the season totalled 498,736 60-kg bags, compared with 1.17 million bags during the previous 2012/2013 cycle. El Salvador, historically one of Central America's smaller coffee producers, has also been one of the hardest hit by the spread of the tree-killing fungus roya over the past couple of seasons.

Guatemala: exports from Guatemala, Central America's second biggest producer, slid 15.6 percent during the recently-concluded 2013-14 season, the country's national coffee association Anacafe said on Tuesday. Shipments during the season totalled 3.13 million 60-kg bags, compared with 3.71 million bags during the previous 2012-13 cycle. Anacafe also said that September exports totalled 191,593 bags, down 21 percent compared to the same month last season.

Kenya: The top price for Kenya’s highest quality coffee last week rose by 3% on the back of dwindling supply, and continued firm interest, and the scarcity of top quality coming from the Fly Crop. Main crop coffees are yet to come on line, and we look closer to the end of the year before these manifest themselves at action. 

Tanzania: The average price for coffee in Tanzania’s Auction rose slightly at auction last week amid a drop in supply and strong demand for exporters to cover their short book for October shipments. Poor drying conditions have delayed the flow of coffee this season, and adding pressure to many exporters to source the coffee they need.

Uganda: Uganda coffee exports for September fell by 7 percent to 207, 927 60-kg bags of coffee compared with the same month a year ago, an industry source said on Thursday, extending a pattern of lower exports this year.

Vietnam: the world's largest Robusta producer, exported 97,300 tonnes (1.62 million 60-kg bags) of coffee last month, down 0.4 percent from the previous month, Vietnam customs said on Wednesday. The export volume is slightly below traders' forecasts of between 100,000 and 120,000 tonnes and close to the government's initial estimate of 100,000 tonnes. Look for an increase in next month’s figures as higher terminal markets encourage sellers to offload stocks.