April Market Report

Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report.

This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.

Live Market Data

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 6th April to Friday 10th April and was written by James Duncan and Hannah Wakefield.

The week opened the week at 295.00 usc/lb (May-26) / 288.70 usc/lb (Jul-26); but with much of the world celebrating Easter Monday as a bank holiday (the US being a notable exception, although many took personal holiday), and reduced market opening hours – volume was markedly thin. Trading started in earnest on Tuesday, which also marked the first day that Jul-26 overtook May-26 in open interest. As such, from here on we will be referencing the Jul-26 terminal.

Volume picked up across all terminal months on Tuesday, with a near 3x increase compared to Monday. Index funds begun rolling their May positions on Tuesday, and this continued through the week providing a large portion of trading volume. Jul-26 fell 11.10 usc/lb, following numerous reports of a bountiful 26/27 crop, including StoneX predicting a surplus of 10 million bags globally. Much of this was regained on Wednesday, as an announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran caused the DXY to drop, with the BRL strengthening by 1.75% against the dollar, muting most origin selling. As a result, the market closed 8 usc/lb up on Wednesday, a trend that continued, albeit modestly, on Thursday (+0.25 usc/lb) and Friday (+6.35 usc/lb).

Currency and Macro

For the nth week, most of the currency movement (especially between major currencies) has been dictated by the US – Iran conflict. Both the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD rose considerably on Wednesday upon news of a ceasefire, with GBP/USD jumping from below 1.33 to almost 1.45 in a day, and EUR/USD jumping from 1.16 to 1.17.

Continuing fluctuations in the DXY have caused a lot of sensationalist headlines claiming the era of the USD being a safe-haven asset is behind us. However, this week, Bloomberg among others reported that for the first time in the Bretton Woods II era, world central banks now hold more in gold reserves than (valuation adjusted) dollar assets.

Origin

Volumes are down for Uganda’s Arabica harvest this year. The 2026 crop is estimated to be 100,000 bags less than that of 2025. The main cause of this decrease in production are the changing weather patterns the country is experiencing. Rains arrived later than usual and were insufficient for the development of the crop. On top of a smaller harvest, we are expecting a smaller average screen size, as there has not been enough rain for larger beans to develop. This is similar to what we saw in Brazil in 2024, where the lack of rain led to a small crop and smaller beans.

However, it is not all bad news for Uganda. The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and World Coffee Research (WCR), through the Advancing Climate-Resilience and Transformation in African Coffee Programme (ACT) have announced that together they will be investing €850,000 into a new initiative promoting sustainable coffee production in the country. The project will last 3 years and will focus on Uganda’s coffee seed systems, support farmer livelihoods, and advance long-term sustainability. To do this, the project will improve access to high-quality planting material and seedlings (both Robusta and Arabica), as well as delivering them to farmers in rural areas, as access to seedlings is currently a major hurdle in Uganda. The project will promote the use of varietals that are resistant to diseases such as Coffee Wilt Disease, Leaf Rust and Coffee Berry Disease, all of which are serious problems currently facing coffee farmers in the country.

All of this hopes to help Uganda achieve its goal of producing 20 million bags of coffee by 2030

Coffee Market Report

This report covers the period from Monday 30th March to Friday 3rd April and was written by James Duncan.

Coffee Market

The market opened on Monday 30th March at 300.50 usc/lb and almost immediately fell below 300 and closed at 292.55 usc/lb. Mostly driven by momentum from the end of the previous week (due in part to further reports of a bountiful 26/27 crop in Brazil), the relative strength of the dollar further encouraged the sell off. This was somewhat reversed on Tuesday as a strengthening Brazilian Real (which discourages exports) sparked short covering in the market. Uncertainty in the market continued throughout the rest of the week, as the market traded between 290 and 300 on Wednesday and Thursday, ultimately settling middle of the road. With the May first notice day approaching in a few weeks’ time, we would expect to see July emerge as the most traded terminal soon – and some short-term volatility while participants square or roll their position.

Currency and Macro

The currency markets have largely followed the conflict in the Middle East this week, as they have since its inception, with the DXY dropping on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced that the US would be withdrawing from Iran within 2-3 weeks. This caused the GBP/USD pair to push above 1.33 again, while the EUR/USD pushed 1.16 on Wednesday.

Origin

A new study by Rabobank has been released, its findings include the alarming statistic that by 2050 20% of land where Arabica is currently grown is likely to become unsuitable for cultivation. The study categorises land on a scale: ‘very suitable, suitable, marginally suitable, unsuitable’. The origins which are expected to be worst affected are Colombia and Honduras. Currently in Colombia 56% of Arabica-cultivating land is considered ‘suitable’, which is expected to fall to 45% by 2050. On top of this, 18% of the land currently used for Arabica in Colombia is expected to become ‘unsuitable’. The outlook in Honduras seems worse. Currently only 53% of land used for growing Arabica is considered ‘suitable’, and that figure is expected to shrink to just 12% by 2050. The study also points out that, even if the land remains suitable for Arabica, changes in weather have the potential to alter what we consider to be regional or national flavour profiles. Rabobank explain, ‘the conditions under which coffee is grown – soil type, altitude, sunlight, rainfall, and temperature – shape its flavour profile, much like terroir in wine […] As climate change alters these factors, the distinctive flavours associated with specific origins may shift or become harder to maintain’.

Our partners SMC in Brazil have shared an update on the current Brazil crop. Throughout the second half of 2025, many coffee-cultivating areas experienced below average rainfall, not ideal for the development of flowers or cherries. However, many areas experienced good rainfall in early 2026, setting the crop in good stead. The jury is still out on what the volume of this year’s harvest will be, with the next weeks being crucial. However, we are expecting to see some variances between regions, with those that experienced lower rainfall producing small harvests.