Good day. Welcome to DRWakefield’s Weekly Coffee Market Report!
This report touches upon the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures market, currency pairings and news from origin. See our Market Report Terms page for clarity on any terminology in the coffee market report below.
Live Market Data
Coffee Market Report 29/04/2024
This report covers the period from Monday 22nd April to Friday 26th April and was written by Priscilla Daniel.
Coffee Market
From 15th April to 19th April, the market continued its rally, gaining 11.40 usc/lb for the week. This surge was justified by the FND on April 22, 2024, during which all May-24 positions were expected to be closed or switched to July-24.
On Monday, NYC Arabica July-24 extended its decline due to speculators selling and a lack of commercial buying. The market opened at 231.50 and closed at 227.65 (-3.85usc/lb). The market continued to decline further on Tuesday as the majority of global commodities fell due to profit-taking amid perceptions of easing tensions in the Middle East, with the market trading as low as 220.25usc/lb. However, the market settled firm on Wednesday and Thursday, supported by the strong Robusta market, which posted a new historical high, whilst NYC Jul-24 closed at 228.10 usc/lb on Thursday. It settled lower on Friday but partially recovered from early heavy losses, closing at 224.00 usc/lb, 1.78% lower. Throughout the week, Arabica lost 3.38% or 7.85 cents. Profit-taking and technical-driven selling contributed to the downturn, alongside eased recent commercial buying. Volatility declined after the FND on Monday.
Robusta futures sustained their rally driven by a strongly bullish fundamental scenario. Expectations of tight supplies persist following reduced crop volumes in both Indonesia and Vietnam. The July contracts saw an increase of $61 per tonne, reaching $4,1510 per tonne from its Monday opening of $4090. This market momentum is primarily fueled by the shortage situation in Vietnam and concerns regarding insufficient rainfall, which could limit irrigation for upcoming harvests.
COT & certified stocks
↑ Today’s Arabica certified stock level: 656,657 bags (increased by 13,567 bags)
↓ Non-commercials decreased their net long by 2,728 lots to total 50,705 net long.
↑ Arabica pending grading: 56,204 bags (increased by 5,230 bags)
Origin
In the domestic Brazilian market, producers remained cautious, engaging in negotiations with traders who adjusted their positions in accordance with fluctuations in NY and the dollar. While buyers have adjusted their bases in response to drops, sellers have held firm, maintaining their prices. On the FOB, the market continues with few deals and a lot of expectations for the 24/25 crop, with sellers cautious and buyers hoping for better differentials as the harvest approaches. Sellers proceed cautiously, while buyers anticipate improved differentials as the harvest approaches. Regarding exports, data accumulated from January to the 3rd week of April 2024 reveals a 4.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023, totaling US$ 100.63 billion.
Meanwhile, Uganda’s coffee exports in March amounted to 329,686 60-kilo bags, marking a 32.40% decline from the previous year’s figure of 487,735 bags, as reported by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA). The decrease in monthly export volume can be attributed to a smaller harvest in the Elgon region, coupled with delays in the onset of the harvest season and a shortage of shipping containers.
Currency & Macro Outlook
U.S./GDP was softer, while UK consumer sentiment soars to a two-year high. The survey released on Friday also indicated that UK households adopted a more positive outlook towards both the economy and their own finances.
The European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel emphasised on Thursday that the final stage of getting euro zone inflation back to 2% will be challenging and it could pose some of the biggest risks. ECB fears that price growth could oscillate over the next few months
Coffee Market Report 22/04/2024
This report covers the period from Monday 15th April to Friday 19th April and was written by Mantvydas Trainavicius
Coffee Market
Another crazy week just passed in the coffee industry. The NYC Arabica (May24 Terminal month) opened on Monday at 221.65usc/lb and traded with the range of 16.15usc/lb. The bullish momentum continued reaching a high of 247.95usc/lb on Wednesday.
Thursday gave us yet another rally, with the highest of the day at 253.70usc/lb, last seen in September 2022. By Thursday afternoon, the bulls lost their steam, and the market turned towards the bearish side. Heavy trading volume pushed the day to close just below the 240.00 mark.
Friday was a bit of a rollercoaster. The market opened on the higher side at 243.65usc/lb, with the highest of the day at 247.75usc/lb, but the week closed in at 241.40usc/lb.
Since 1 January 2024, we have had a 29.40% increase for the Terminal month of May 2024, for which the First Notice Day (FND) is on Monday, 22 April 2024. This means we are switching now to July 2024 Terminal month.
Due to unfortunate fundamentals and dry weather in Vietnam, the Robusta market continues to break records of market highs throughout the week. Monday opened at 3887usd/mt (May24 Terminal month), reached 4332usd/mt on Thursday, and closed at 4083usd/mt on Friday.
Now, we have a 54% increase since the 1st of January 2024 for the Terminal month May2024, which FND is on Thursday, 25th of April 2024, so we still have a couple of days until we switch to July 2024.
COT & certified stocks
↑ Arabica certified stock level: 643,090 bags (7,980 bags added since last week)
↑ Non-commercials increased their net long by 4,883 lots to a total of 53,433 net long.
↓ Arabica pending grading: 48,879 bags (decreased by 7,365 bags)
Origin
Coffee Network (Bogota) – A sharp hike in international coffee prices, propelled Colombian coffee prices, allowing coffee growers to pocket gains and cover increased production costs.
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Data from the National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCafe) showed that the country exported 709,782 bags of coffee in March, an increase of 11.96% from the same month last year.
Indonesia’s coffee crop has been suffering due to adverse weather conditions as the country is positioned in one of the most vulnerable areas to both climate change and influences of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño–La Niña weather phenomenon.
There are no new updates in Vietnam apart from the continuing dry weather, which has had a big effect for the last few weeks.
Currency & Macro Outlook
European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that Eurozone inflation is retreating, which could lead to interest rate cuts in June. However, the path beyond that is very uncertain for policymakers to make any subsequent commitments.
Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said on Wednesday that recent Middle East conflicts, including an increase in inflation expectations, could threaten the inflation outlook.
Final data published by the Eurostat on Wednesday showed a slowdown in the Eurozone inflation in March, raising expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in June amid rising energy costs and a weak Euro clouding the outlook.
The US Dollar has been strengthening all last week, but this week, it was rather quiet week in terms of volatility for the US Dollar versus the majority of currency pairs.
Coffee Market Report 15/04/2024
This report covers the period from Monday 8th April to Friday 12th April and was written by Guus Bremer.
Coffee Market
After the last bullish rally, we began the week at 212.15 Usc/lb on Monday (New York arabica K24), continuing the upward trend. Whilst majority of the traders, producers, roasters and other coffee people were chatting away in SCA Chicago, ‘back home behind the screens’ the market surged to a high of 236.20 (May/24) on Friday before correcting to close the week at 224.65.
July 24 settled at 220.45 with the highest liquidity, totaling 116,000 lots open.
Since the beginning of April, arabica has been attempting to catch up with Robusta (and cocoa?). Commercial hedge lifting persists, and GTC stops are being triggered as prices rise. Spreads have widened, and rollover costs have intensified, with May/July switches showing negative up to 6.5 cents.
COT & certified stocks
↑ Arabica certified stock level: 639,650 bags (26,188 bags added since last week)
↓ Arabica pending grading: 64,404 bags (decreased by 7,182 bags)
The managed money sector showed the largest net long on record with a whopping 70k long, and non-commercials show 52k long. Today specs are again actively adding extra longs.
Origin
In Brazil, fundamental news surfaced on Monday from ‘Somar Meteorologia,’ indicating that the Minas Gerais region received 2.5 mm of rainfall in the previous week, which is only 12% of the historical average. However, this minor precipitation isn’t expected to significantly impact market dynamics, especially given the timing, just a few months before the peak harvest. Actually, Brazilian farmers are quite happy, as they are earning 2-3 times the minimum wage for their cherry.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, a more severe drought is occurring, with domestic prices reaching an all-time high of 110,000 dong a kilo ($4.39). The transition from El Niño to La Niña is contributing to drier and warmer temperatures overall. Coupled with the EU’s anti-deforestation regulations, expected to take effect by the end of the year, there are concerns about further disruptions in the supply chain.
In Peru, the harvest remains concentrated in the Amazonas and San Martín regions. Producers are capitalizing on higher C prices by increasing the flow of coffee in the main areas, as they require liquidity for the remaining months of the harvest.
Currency & Macro Outlook
Speculation surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) potentially cutting its interest rates has bolstered the dollar to a fresh five-month high compared to the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
ECB President Christine Lagarde pointed out that Eurozone inflation differs from that of the US and anticipates it slowing down towards 2%.
Coffee Market Report 08/04/2024
This report covers the period from Monday 1st April to Friday 5th April and was written by Phil Searle.
Coffee Market
What a week! The market started at a low of 187.70 and reach a high on Friday at 214c/lb. Over the last few months industry players have been used to a range bound market, typically around the 180s. This has caught many roasters off guard by the reluctance to book at lower levels. There are many reasons that we could look at for the hike, the Robusta deficit, Brazil weather, limited stocks in Vietnam or even specs finding value in coffee scared off by the cocoa market.
Technically the market is well over bought and vulnerable to a correction – we are walking a tightrope!
The London Robusta market – well what do we say. Pricing is not falling in favour of the industry and are now having to come to terms that if they don’t pay, they simply don’t get coffee. No follow through for origin to sell at these levels. Farmers have the power!
COT & certified stocks
↑ Non-commercials increased their net long by 8,775 lots to a total of 43,059 net long.
↓ Arabica pending grading: 73,114 bags (decreased by 7,182 bags)
Origin
The Brazil Conilon market has seen most its business focused around new crop with a good amount of Vietnam buyers swapping their allegiance. New harvest is expected to start any moment now.
In Kenya, 34,000 bags were on offer this week. Demand has kept pricing high/firm. Last week two existing mills managed to secure their license and will be able to operate again. This brings some positivity to the sector and might benefit the flow of certified coffees.
Currency & Macro Outlook
The US Dollar strongly traded vs the GBP due to the impressive March jobs report which triggered a rally in the US Treasury bonds.
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said the growth in consumer prices is easing quickly, and the time to lower interest rates is approaching. The ECB cannot ignore the fact that keeping interest rates high has it’s economic risks…
