As we enter the new year, it’s always good to look over our shoulder at the year that just passed. If you believe in causality, the future has already been decided by the events of the past – indeed, even if you subscribe to a less deterministic view of reality, few will deny the future is at least steered by the past; and boy did 2024 rev the engine, push down the clutch, and drive the coffee market straight into 5th gear. With the record-breaking C market highs fresh on the mind for most of us coffee folk, it is easy to forget what else happened in 2024 – so we’re going to hold off on the latter half of the year for now and focus on the first six months to give them the time they deserve. Like a Hollywood film adaptation (except, you know, not a cash grab) we will be dropping part 2 a bit later, so keep your eyes peeled and thumbs warmed up so you can scroll through that later. If it is an annual round up of the coffee market you are after you can read Henry’s review here – but for a dollop of coffee origin news served with a side commentary from yours truly – grab your metaphorical tray and lets get stuck into the buffet of Bullish and Bearish bulletins below (cutlery not included).
January – Vietnam
We start off our year with Vietnam – who’s coffee exports increased sharply in January [1]. While the end of this year has been overshadowed by the bullish Arabica market, it’s easy to forget that this time last year we were all talking about the Robusta market going crazy. Although we have now seen the 23/24 harvest come to a close with a reported 10-12% decrease in volume from Vietnam [2][3], in January the month-on-month production had doubled [4]. This provided the coffee industry with some much-needed reassurance that Vietnam’s exports were likely to hit forecasts, and not be as dire as some had predicted. In fact, despite a reduced export volume [5], Vietnam reported a record $5.32 billion in revenue – an increase of more than 30% on last year. With a global Robusta shortage for three years running [6], it is likely that prices and therefore revenue will remain high – leaving markets like Brazil open to increase their production.

February – Nicaragua
February saw Jamie and Priscilla take to the skies in our first origin trip of the year to Nicaragua [6]. The shockwaves of Mercon’s bankruptcy at the of 2023 [7] are still being felt around the country. The Coffee Group owned the largest exporter in Nicaragua (CISA Exportadora) which left uncertainty for farmers and other exporters alike in the wake of their collapse. This led groups like our partners Aldea Global to take on more stock to help farmers left without a supply chain and hence a means of income. This in turn affects their own exports, decreasing profit as they struggle to find buyers amongst their usual supply chain, while trying to realise cashflow for the extra inventory.

March – Papua New Guinea
March saw Jack take off to the other side of the Globe to Papua New Guinea, an origin last visited by DRW in 1984 [8]. A fascinatingly unique country, much of the highlands were thought to be uninhabited until the 20th century; today there is a significant population who live in the relatively isolated area where 95% of the country’s coffee is produced. Transport is difficult, with most visitors accessing the highlands by plane – but as of 2016 a major infrastructure project to renovate the Highlands Highway to the port of Lae has been underway and is currently 80% complete [9]. Previously a treacherous and unpredictably long journey to deliver coffee to port, this project will inevitably decrease journey times and increase reliability. The deadly Enga landslide later in May hundreds of people presumed dead and buried the highway – leaving many more people in the Western Highlands isolated in its wake [10].

April – India
April saw the beginning of the world’s largest democracy begin its elections. The enormous effort would take 44 days to complete it’s 7 rounds, and 642 million people casting their vote, it was the largest election in history [11]. Elsewhere in India, high temperatures in Karnataka (the main coffee growing region) during the early part of the year led to a lower than anticipated yield [12]. Despite this, India still managed both volume and revenue export growth in 2024, with the Coffee Board of India targeting a 100% increase in coffee production in the next 10 years [13][14]. Contributing to a growing portion of both Arabica and Robusta production worldwide, and with a burgeoning internal coffee scene – India is set to up its prominence on the world coffee stage in the future [15].

May – Colombia
May saw Hannah, Hriday and Priscilla take to Colombia to visit our partners Racafe, Anei and Café Granja La Esperanza [16]. May also saw unprecedented rains break the drought that hung over most of Colombia in the prior months [17][18]. Extreme weather events in Central and South American have become an increasingly common affair. The rare ‘tiple dip’ La Niña of 2020-2023 made the weather patterns unpredictable in the region, making agriculture practises difficult with so much uncertainty surrounding the climate. El Niño, the counter to La Niña, took hold in mid-2023 and widely blamed for the droughts early in 2024 [19]. This ended with the rains, which hung over vast swathes of Colombia and Southern Brazil affecting the early harvest and is predicted to fall back to a La Niña event by the end of 2024 [20]. With these contrasting weather patterns becoming more intensified by climate change, you can familiarise yourself with how this affects different regions and coffee production with our website article written by Jamie [21].

June – Mexico
On the 2nd of June 2024 – Mexicans took to the polls and elected their first ever Female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Since then, she has pledged to increase national stores of staple foods, which coffee is considered, to reclaim “food sovereignty” for Mexico [22]. Her government also plans to launch a government coffee brand ‘Bienestar’ which aims to support internal coffee industry, buying coffee directly from local producers at fair prices and aiming to boost consumption in the country [23]. Mexico also ratified the International Coffee Association’s ICA 2022 agreement this year, in a boost to international cooperation after a few pullouts in recent years [24].
References
[1] https://elmarspices.com/coffee-exports-in-january-2024-increased-sharply/
[4] https://www.mard.gov.vn/en/Pages/vietnam-s-coffee-exports-doubled-in-january-2024.aspx
[6] https://drwakefield.com/field-trips/facing-challenges-head-on-in-nicaragua/
[7] https://www.reuters.com/business/coffee-trader-mercon-files-bankruptcy-protection-2023-12-07/
[8] https://drwakefield.com/field-trips/papua-new-guinea-40-years-later/
[10] https://www.reuters.com/graphics/PAPUA-LANDSLIDE/ANALYSIS/lgpdowdqnvo/
[11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/articles/crgg04xjxp1o
[14] https://www.exportimportdata.in/blogs/coffee-export-from-india.aspx
[15] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y38vnpnn2o
[16] https://drwakefield.com/field-trips/tradition-to-innovation-racafe-anei-and-cgle/
[19] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event
[20] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-forecast-swing-la-nina-later-year
[21] https://drwakefield.com/news-and-views/el-nino-the-unpredictable-force-shaping-coffee/
[24] https://qahwaworld.com/news/mexico-ratifies-international-coffee-agreement/