As we wrap up on 2025 and head into 2026, it’s time to reflect on the year gone by, and what a year it has been. Rather than revisiting events month by month, this round-up focuses on the key moments that shaped the year as a whole. Some of these unfolded over weeks or months, others hit suddenly and left lasting consequences. Together, they tell the story of a market that spent much of the year reacting, recalibrating, and adapting.
Before we get started, we wanted to take a moment to congratulate you all for getting through a rollercoaster of a year!
Record Highs in the NY C Market
(Chart: TradingView)
We kicked off 2025 with a bang, in the middle of a bull run, the likes of which had never been seen before. The first market open was on 2nd January at 321.55 c/lb, and it traded almost exclusively higher until it reached a record high of 429.96 c/lb on 12th February. (A record that was held for most of the year, until 23rd October, when the market hit the lofty heights of 437.95 c/lb.) After February’s high, the market eased off, but continued to flirt with the realm over 4$ until May. Not only were these extreme highs difficult for many players in the industry to manage, the very high level of volatility made that even more challenging. A high price can certainly be hard to swallow if you are buying, but it is easier to adapt to if it remains steady. Coffee had no such stability this past year, when prices have been swinging up and down, it has made it tricky to plan ahead for everyone, from producer to roaster. Whilst the +400 c/lb level has not lasted the year, the uncertainty and volatility that we started the year with has persisted. Unfortunately, not all made it through the turmoil; Atlantica and Cafebras (both Brazilian exporters) filed for bankruptcy in March.
Let’s not forget what triggered this bull run, which began, really, back in 2024, with the first predictions of the 24/25 Brazil crop being published, which, simply put, spelt disaster. The prolonged drought in coffee-growing regions significantly impacted the harvest. The trees simply did not have enough water to produce the cherries needed, and a global deficit of coffee was predicted. Extreme and unpredictable weather is becoming more common across the world as climate change progresses. Coffee-growing areas are often affected, so, no doubt we will see events like these continue to happen.
The End of USAID
Sadly, in 2025, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) was shut down. In March, President Trump cancelled 80% of the agency’s programs, and the final shutdown happened in July. The impact of this has already been significant. USAID used to invest large amounts into development across the globe. It was present across coffee origins and did a great deal of work to improve rural development in many coffee regions. This included projects that funded and built dry mills and other facilities, supported coffee breeding programs, and helped to improve market accessibility and environmental stability. Data collected had shown that on average, for every $1 spent, there was an impact of $8, primarily in rural, developing countries (in the agriculture sectors over a typical four-year period). The shutting down of USAID will undoubtedly result in a significant slowing down of development in many parts of the world.
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs
Average Effective tariff Rate on US Imports (U.S. International Trade Commission, Fitch Ratings)
We couldn’t talk about market-moving events in 2025 without mentioning tariffs. On 2nd April, President Trump announced new ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that would take effect on 5th April and imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all imports. The tariffs were on and then off again, as Trump said they would be delayed until later in the year. Over the year, actual and threatened tariffs ranged from the baseline 10% to 200% (this was to be imposed on wine, Champagne and spirits imported from Europe in retaliation for the EU proposal to put a 50% of American Whisky). As a country, China was dealt some of the worst tariffs; at times, it looked like there would be a 145% tariff placed on Chinese goods. Among coffee-producing countries, tariffs varied. One of the higher tariffs initially imposed was 32% on Indonesia, which caused considerable concern among coffee producers. The USA is by far the largest buyer of Sumatran coffee, but fears were that, with such a high tariff, demand would be severely reduced, leaving Sumatran producers in a difficult position. Ultimately, a 19% rate was imposed on Indonesia.
The tariff that garnered the most attention in the coffee world was the one on Brazil. In July, a 50% tariff was imposed on all Brazilian imports into the United States in direct retaliation for the prosecution of former President Bolsonaro, who had been an ally of President Trump. The impact was substantial as the USA is the biggest consumer of coffee, and Brazil the biggest producer. There was significant pushback from both sides, and after many months a deal was struck that for food products from Brazil (including coffee), the additional 40% tariff would be removed from the 13th of November. The baseline 10% tariff remains, however.
Challenges with the Central American Crop
The harvest in Central America usually starts shipping in January and February, with the earliest arrivals in the UK coming in March. However, in 2025, the crop across much of the region was significantly delayed as a result of changing weather patterns. For some areas, harvest started 6-7 weeks late. The knock-on effect of this delay meant that many shipments were delayed by at least 1-2 months. With Central American coffees playing a key role for many roasters, this unavoidable delay was felt keenly.
The late harvest was compounded by issues in ports, where the lack of vessels and containers caused further delays. Honduras and Nicaragua were some of the worst affected. One solution to the lack of 20ft containers (which coffee is typically shipped in), was to use 40ft containers instead. Whilst this got some shipments moving, it was not a perfect solution. 40ft containers are twice the capacity of 20fts, but their weight limit is not double that of 20fts, meaning you cannot fit twice the amount of coffee in a 40ft. On top of which, many warehouses on both sides of the ocean are not set up to handle the bigger containers. Challenges persisted into May, particularly in Nicaragua, where some containers due to ship in January were still stuck in port.
The SCA Takeover the “Q”
On 23rd April, the Speciality Coffee Association (SCA) announced it would take over the “Q” system from the Coffee Quality Institute (CQI). This news broke right before the SCA Houston conference and received mixed reactions from across the industry. The impact of the takeover meant an overhaul of the previous Q-Grading system for assessing coffee. The CQI cupping form and protocol were replaced by the SCA’s Coffee Value Assessment (CVA) forms and protocols from October onwards, and are being called the ‘Evolved Q’. Current Q Graders had the opportunity to take a conversion course to convert their Q qualification to an Evolved Q before the end of 2025. There had been discussions of updating the Q system for some time, and the CVA protocols have been under development for many years. However, the news came as a shock to many. It is important that we have an agreed upon global system for assessing coffee, as it allows for everyone in the supply chain, regardless of which country they are in and what their preferences may be, to speak the same language and be as objective as possible. It also impacts how we grade, value and buy coffee. Therefore, it stands to reason that there would be a lot of emotive responses to this news.
Cyclones and Flooding Cause Devastation in Indonesia
At the end of November and into early December Indonesia was hit by cyclone that was rare for the region. The result was torrential rains and flash floods in Sumatra, causing landslides and as yet untold damage. More than 1,000 people have been killed, and an estimated 3.2 million have been affected. Many communities are still isolated as many roads have been washed away, access to food and water is difficult.
The worst affected provinces are Aceh and Northern Sumatra. These are also the main Arabica-growing regions of Sumatra. Coffee trees have been damaged as well as warehouses, and much of the crop may have been lost. The full impact is not yet known, delays in shipments are certain, but for how long is still unknown. Depending on the extent of the damage, it may be many years before the region recovers.
EU Deja Vu
When it came to EUDR, the final months of 2025 felt oddly similar to those of 2024…! Following the first delay, the legislation was scheduled to come into effect on 30th December. However, in another last-minute delay on 17th December, the EU Parliament voted to postpone the legislation again, as well as bring in some changes designed to simplify the regulations for smaller businesses. Large operators and traders now have until 30th December 2026, and small operators have until 30th June 2027. Let’s see what happens. Perhaps I will be tying up 2026 by sharing the news that EUDR has been delayed yet again!
As 2025 draws to a close, one thing feels clear: the coffee market is operating in a far more complex and interconnected environment than it was even a few years ago. While some of the shocks of this year may prove temporary, others point to longer-term shifts in how coffee is produced, traded, and valued.
We wish you all the best for the year ahead and continuing the conversation as the next chapter unfolds.
