Market Reports Blog / Market Reports / Weekly Market Report 8 to 12 October 2012

Weekly Market Report 8 to 12 October 2012

 

Futures Markets:

Arabica: Prices operated towards the lower end of the range, as the market decided to fall like a stone throughout the week. As the market trades in bands, we are noticing the market finding comfort near the lower end of the band.

Robusta: The market operated in a tight range throughout the week ticking away nicely in-between the 2050-2100 range. Talks that the Vietnam crop is set to decrease triggered some bullish talk – however as the harvest is still higher than all the forecasts for last year’s sizeable crop.

Currency:  The US dollar strengthened throughout the week, as the US economy continued its gradual improvement. News that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level in four and a half years, suggesting that their domestic labour market is improving.

 

Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY Dec-12 c/lb

169.10

165.30

163.45

160.75

161.70

Lon Nov-12 $/t

2064

2066

2098

2076

2068

£/$

1.6076

1.6015

1.6006

1.6008

1.6044

 

 

Physical Markets:

 

Brazil: Exports fell by 25% compared to the same month a year earlier. Crop output usually is never consistent due to biological biennial cycles which can cause output to fluctuate by as much as 20%.

Colombia: October registrations so far at 337.000 bags of 70 kilos, a low figure reflecting the slow flow of coffee.

El Salvador: Exports fell by 39.3% in 2011/12 compared to the previous year’s output. On a more positive note exports should look to increase by nearly 20%, as traders in El Salvador expect a bumper harvest as renovated plantations and better fertilization programs begin to show their success.

Kenya: The frequency of the usual weekly auction has now been reduced to every fortnight due to low supply. Supplies often are seen as low at the beginning of the season but like many other countries pick up throughout the harvest.

Tanzania: Weather will bring some showers for the sufficient supply of coffee plants.

Uganda: Forecast exports for 2012/13 look to rise by 11% to 3 million 60kg bags -Ugandan Coffee Development Authority.

Guatemala: Exports rose 1.19% from last year. The final figures which have still be unchecked could be dented due to the fungal outbreak of leaf rust, which damaged potentially 40% of the crop.

India: Arabica prices rose at last week’s auction as a result of high demand from local traders. Exports fell from the previous year’s record level by 8.6%.

Vietnam: Prices of coffee fell on Tuesday before the main harvest, which is due to start in two weeks’ time. Demand has remained stagnant as buyers are hopeful for the price to keep falling. Considering that the weather remains the same, and the sunny days persist, the harvest could start near to 10 days, which may lower the price which the buyers have been wanting.

Papua New Guinea: Few offers to internal buyers as it is the end of the season.