Market Reports Blog / Market Reports / Weekly Market Report 24 to 28 September 2012

Weekly Market Report 24 to 28 September 2012

 

 

Futures Markets:

 

Arabica: The market found comfort for the majority of the week situated around the 170 mark, 3ct higher than previous weeks. This week also saw coffee out perform any of the other traded commodities (see figure 1). The NYC is range bound at the moment offering some long term price stability, although there is still more potential to the up side than down.

Robusta: Robusta prices returned to recent highs on a lack of physical supply. Offers from India are almost non-existent and the new Vietnam crop is not due for another couple of months.  

Currency: Sterling continues to perform well against the Dollar and the Euro, and looks to be a good investment alternative to unfavourable US job data and the well documented Euro zone crisis.

 

Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY Dec-12 c/lb

172.30

173.65

169.45

174.30

173.50

Lon Nov-12 $/t

2084

2144

2130

2188

2182

£/$

1.6239

1.6260

1.6165

1.6190

1.6253

 

 

Physical Markets:

 

Brazil: Reports from origin states that exports for the current year will increase by 4% from 47 million to 49 million bags. The trees are close to flowering as rains are expected to return within the next couple of weeks.   

Kenya: Higher interest in Kenya’s AA this week pushed the average price per bag by $3.

Sumatra: Robusta exports rose 77% from a year earlier to 18288.26 tonnes – Internal prices are looking likely weaken ahead of the main harvest.

Honduras: Export forecasts have decreased to 5.98 million bags following the fungus outbreak which according to origin will affect 10% of the crop.

Vietnam: Exports increase to a record 1.6 million tonnes equivalent to a 24% difference to this time last year. Harvest continues to increase as pickings are up, exports continually look to grow.

India: Arabica fell at last week’s auction following the trend of the NYC, this was due to traders staying clear from the market because of fluctuating prices.

 

AOB:

 

Starbucks are to open their first coffee shop in Mumbai, India. This has been delayed by more than a year as there has been difficulty acquiring real estate because of high land costs. As a result we may find that Indian Arabica coffees left for export may trade higher as the Jolly Green Giant expands and sources more locally.  

 

 

Figure 1

 

 

(Source: JB Drax Honore)