Market Reports Blog / Market Reports / Weekly Market Report 15 to 19 October 2012

Weekly Market Report 15 to 19 October 2012

 

Futures Markets:

 

Arabica: The market continued to find comfort at the lower band range of the low 160s hovering above a 5-week low. A limited interest in causing the market to remain lower, once interest arises once more; the market could look to have brighter outlook. Figure 1 shows the low performance of coffee in comparison to other commodities.

Robusta: The Liffe was found to oscillate within a band that saw dip around the 2020 to highs in the 2060 and continued to rarely move out of this scale. News from Vietnam that the dry weather continues provides excellent conditions for harvesting keeps the market content within itself.

Currency:  The Pound remains steady against the Dollar after a recent string of data fuelled hope for a sustained recovery in the recession hit economy.

 

Futures and Currency close levels:

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

NY Dec-12 c/lb

160.85

162.80

161.50

158.60

161.65

Lon Nov-12 $/t

2036

            2039   

2032

2021

2063

£/$

1.6044

1.6090

    1.6136

1.6128

1.6052

 

 

Physical Markets:

 

Brazil: The main coffee growing areas saw an increase in rain, this has helped tiny flowers turn into buds which should result in this becoming the 2013 coffee crop. Trees are in good condition even in the driest areas because of the good rains in September that has tide them over. According to an agricultural consultancy firm in Brazil, 43% of the crop has been sold which is 13% lower than the previous year.

Colombia: Production could rise to around 10m bags by next year as better weather has helped the crop produce better yields. Luis Mumoz, head of the National Federation of Coffee Growers stated that they are optimistic about the recovery of production and hope to outperform last year’s figures and close to around 8.5m bags.

Kenya: Prices of Kenya’s top grade AA rose at this week’s auction due to higher demand; the difference in price from the previous auction is $34. This could be a result of the auctions moving to once every fortnight instead of once every week.

Nicaragua: Exports rose 9.4% in 2011/12 harvest season, the national coffee council in Nicaragua expects total production to reach 1.53m 60kg bags in the new season resulting in production potentially 12% lower.

Mexico: Exports rose 44.5% in September compared from the same month a year earlier. United states currently dominates importers from Mexico taking account for 72% of the country’s total export.

Cuba: Coffee output will decline to around 25% this year, a setback to government effort to renovate neglected plantations, to help increase output and reduce imports. In the previous season, production accounted for 7,100 tonnes, 1,400 tonnes lower than the forecasted current harvest.

India: Prices in origin eased last week in tandem with the overseas markets and falling demand from traders.

Vietnam: Coffee exports fell 31% to 70,398 tonnes from a month earlier according to Vietnams General Customs Department.

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1

 

(Source:JB Drax Honore.2012)