Futures Markets:
Arabica: The market continued to follow the recent trend by finding itself just below the 150 mark. Speculative buying and selling caused the erratic behavior – news of Roya may be a cause for concern for the future but does not seem to have had much of an effect on front month market positions.
Robusta: The exchange published their updated certified stock figure with the cut off at 21 January. Over the course of the latest fortnight the overall valid stock number increased by 67 lots to 10,553 lots. (10 tonnes per lot – so not much in other words).
Currency: The UK economy shrank more than forecasted in the final quarter of 2012 as the boost from the Olympic Games unwound. Following the £ weakening the Bank of England Governor King stated that more policy action was required to stimulate the UK economy. Following Wednesdays speech by David Cameroon it was mentions that the UK’S future in the EU would be subject to a referendum after the next election have weighed on Sterling.
Coffee Prices, Futures and Currency close levels:
|
|
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
NY Mar-13 c/lb |
closed |
151.50 |
150.40 |
146.55 |
148.30 |
|
Lon Mar-13 $/t |
1970 |
1938 |
1962 |
1946 |
1946 |
|
£/$ |
1.5886 |
1.5823 |
1.5846 |
1.5830 |
1.5794 |
Physical Markets:
Brazil: Rain is forecasted to fall heavily in the southeast region according to weather forecaster Somar Meterologia.
Colombia: Expectations that the majority of the crop will be renovated with disease-resistant varieties by 2016, which would allow the country to boost output according to the head of the grower’s federation.
El Salvador: Roya is also dominating news from origin, like most other Centrals. Rumours that half of the country’s crop is infected.
Kenya: Top prices fell due to poor demand, top grade, AA drop $124 in the latest auction according to the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE).
Tanzania: The output has surpassed the initial forecast of 55,000 tonnes the TCB mentioned on Monday. Predictions are now reaching 61,000.
India: The arabica and Robusta harvest are in full swing as a result of the recent sunny weather conditions. Robusta shipments are increasing considerably while washed arabica business again remains subdued.
Guatemala: The head of the Guatemala National Coffee Association, Anacafe states that 15% of the 2012/13 harvest will be damaged by Roya.
Honduras: Similar to other centrals – declared a state of emergency in order to fight the spread of Roya.
Costa Rica: A declared emergency to tackle the spread of the coffee fungus, forecasted damage to the crop is expect to be around 12% for the upcoming 2013/14.
AOB
For more information on Roya “leaf Rust” -please see our blog.
