Coffee Market report 12th January 2015 to 16th January 2015

COFFEE MARKET NEWS Week Ending: 16^th January 2015

Commentary – The circus remains in town, and someone let the bears back out

After the previous weeks performance we could have easily been forgiven for thinking that the market could continue to the realm of the 190’s, but instead, the selling pressure finally eclipsed the buyer support, and Monday saw the market pop, toppling 8 cts of the high to close at 176.75 – the relatively steady weekly market close figures do not give an accurate picture of the week’s trading which saw an average daily range of over 7cts! Friday’s close could suggest a drive lower when the market opens on Tuesday (Monday is Martin Luther King Day)

London had a plucky week making some recent highs and dabbling in the $2000 period for a while, but NYC selling pressure spilled over, and most of the week’s gains were lost in Fridays’ sell off. London is open on Monday though and is expected a tick higher.

Origin Activity

Brazil – “Rain is on the horizon” – “no it’s not”, “yes it is”!

While the weather reporters and agronomists argue about the moisture content, growth rate and precipitations of the South American nation, the market continues to hang on their every word. It seems any Brazilian pundit with an ounce of credibility (and some without even that) manage to push the market 10cts in any direction they choose. The reality – it is still too early to tell, let’s ignore all the hype. Having said that, FOB differentials have firmed up a cent or two over the past week.

Ethiopia – certified coffees for Ethiopia continue to be offered by the small number of suppliers available, but at what cost? With such stratospherically high price ideas, it is no wonder that reports are coming through that very little has been sold yet. Unfortunately many producers have already received their high cherry payment and prices confirmed – meaning some very expensive coffees are floating around trying to find a home! Either Roasters are going to have to pay up, or the market will need to rally 70cts (or both) to get these coffees moving!

India – The last couple of weeks has seen arrivals of washed Arabica increase despite the unusually cloudy weather, resulting in drying times for parchment taking longer than usual. Pricing for Plantation A as a bench mark is comparatively high, but recent cupping suggests that quality is excellent and could be well worth the premium! Robusta harvest is in full swing, and arrivals are expected to be good.

Kenya – It seems the Government is meddling once again – unable to let free market economics prevail, last week saw the unveiling of yet another initiative, the “Coffee Kenya mark of Origin”. An enterprise which, once exporters have been vetted and paid their KSh10,000 fee will enable bulk containers (of largely commodity grade coffee) to be branded. If only the agricultural ministry put as much energy into supporting the farmers and creating a conclusive and coherent policy towards increasing yields rather than vanity exercises to manipulate the complexities of international marketing.  

El Salvador – El Salvador has cut its production forecast for the current harvest by around one-third, as the country struggles to control an outbreak of leaf rust. Heavy rain at the end of last year and strong winds have carried rust spores from infected farms to other plantations, worsening an infestation that has affected crops from Mexico to Peru. Estimates sit around 600,000 Bags; however export stats show that only 6,086 bags of coffee have been exported through the first two months of the 2014-15 season, down 89 percent from the same period a year earlier.